Swingin' Tern
From: Leigh M. Walker <lmwalker@eclipse.net>
Sent: Tuesday, June 2, 2020 11:02 AM
To: FP Board <fullboard@folkproject.org>
Subject: Swingin' Tern May report
The Swingin' Tern report for May:
No dances last month. We paid $180 to Meetup for the last two subscription periods, and that was covered by contributions.
We are planning for an outdoor dance on August 15. It will take place only if by early August, NJ coronavirus deaths have dropped to very few (zero would be best) and there are few new infections reported. It would be closed to the public -- open only to our volunteers and other ST dancers.
And should it happen, we are planning many safety precautions.
Leigh Walker
Swingin' Tern
From: Leigh M. Walker <lmwalker@eclipse.net>
Sent: Saturday, May 30, 2020 5:24 PM
To: FP Board <fullboard@folkproject.org>
Subject: Swingin' Tern plans
Dear FP board,
Usually we don't bother the board with our internal Swingin' Tern matters, but in this situation the board should know that we are tentatively planning a dance outdoors on August 15. This is a recent post to our list that will give you a sense of where things stand and what we are thinking.
Not everyone in our group is of the same opinion, which is fine. We are encouraging an open discussion.
Our venue gives us a great advantage, and we might be able to use that to our benefit. That is, on August 15 at 5 PM we might have a contra dance in the parking lot of the parish house without a sound system. We'd dance in a circle around the band, in the form of a line that progresses around the circle instead of up and down. Attendance would be limited. Registration in advance would be required and frequent volunteers and dancers would be given preference. Finally (almost), we would reserve the possibility of canceling the dance until noon on the day of the dance.
Apart from the usual benefits of having a dance, our goal would be to minimize potential spread of the virus.
The dance would not happen if the death rate and infection level in New Jersey do not decline approximately as projected by the IMHE, which is now projecting that the daily number of virus-related deaths in New Jersey will drop to zero starting July 24 (updated since yesterday, no doubt reflecting the drops over the last week). The IMHE is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.
Leigh Walker
Swingin' Tern
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Subject: Various topics, especially August 15
From: Leigh M. Walker <lmwalker@eclipse.net>
Date: Fri, May 29, 2020 7:47 pm
To: Swingin' Tern Folks <swingintern@folkproject.org>
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Hello all,
Thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion as well as to those who have just read and considered it.
These posts are not just about discussing the possible August 15 dance but also about keeping our dance alive in our hearts and minds, regardless of whether we have the August dance.
SWINGIN' TERN CLOSED IN JULY
The other venues of the Folk Project (FP) are not having public, in-person events in July, and FP is about to publish that fact, so we have joined them in closing for July. If in the unlikely event we have a dance in July, it would probably not be open to the public.
CHURCH CONTACT
We have been exchanging emails and phone calls with Rich Zaleski, our church contact. I told him that two more donations from our group were coming and that we do not expect a refund for the March 21 dance. I also informed him that we might have a dance in the parking lot on August 15, which he and his colleagues were happy to hear. Typically helpful, Rich offered to tell the neighbors of the dance if plans go forward.
FUTURE DANCES
As things stand now, we are discussing the possibility of a dance on August 15. Should we have this dance, please be aware that it would not signify we will be holding dances this fall. Many times Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former FDA commissioner and current healthcare public intellectual, has made comments implying it could be more prudent to hold an August dance outdoors than an October one indoors, as he expects the summer to be a low point for the virus.
I encourage everyone to have a flexible attitude. There are indeed perspectives other than Dr. Gottlieb's, and I believe he would tell anyone that he is stating his opinion on what he sees as most probable, not that he knows for sure what will unfold. As an extreme on the other side, some people fear that a UK vaccine trial will not work because the virus might recede too quickly(!) to evaluate the vaccine's efficacy without deliberately exposing volunteers to the virus. We can only hope!
WHETHER TO HOLD THE AUGUST 15 DANCE
As of now, less time has passed since our first canceled dance than there is between now and August 15, so a lot could change between now and mid-August. Mostly based on private emails to me, there are about ten people who have quasi-signed up for this dance, although I haven't asked anyone to do that.
I continue to suggest that we limit dance size. Perhaps somewhere between
20 and 40 people? Eligible would be Swingin' Tern dancers, especially volunteers, but the dance would be closed to the public, and we would not publicize it.
We will not decide now whether to hold the dance, but it's good to plan for it. Many excellent comments and ideas, some referenced below, have already come from you in the last several days.
The cost factor is not now a consideration. We would encourage contributions at the dance without a formal door admission, but we've had a number of generous contributions that would cover the cost of the dance, and further, it's possible that it will be partly or fully sponsored.
Naturally, if dancer interest is insufficient, we will not hold the dance.
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AND RELATED
The dance would be in the middle of the parking lot, at the farthest point from the roads.
The side door to the building would be left open and the front door left locked because it would be out of our view.
Dr. Gottlieb, Dr. Fauci and many articles have stated that outdoor activities are much safer than indoor ones. That's one motivation behind having the dance outside. You might know that many experts believe that viral load is an important factor, and it's much easier to avoid ingesting a large quantity of viral droplets outside. Inside, large areas with high ceilings and good ventilation are the best venues. Bathrooms, especially small ones, stink.
If we have the dance, we will request that the small upstairs bathrooms not be used except for emergencies. Further, using the bathrooms at all should be minimized. Originally I was thinking we'd ask everyone to wash thoroughly before leaving home and use hand-cleansers during the dance so we wouldn't often go inside. But Jae's offer to help set up an outside washing station is far better that going inside to wash up, and it's an excellent idea.
Several people (Sandy, Bill and others privately) have made pro-mask comments. Outdoors, masks are ordinarily not so important as they are inside, but a major advantage of masks for the dance is that people would less often touch their faces, especially in the mouth and nose area, so transmission would be reduced. Here again, Jae has offered to help, this time by supplying masks they have made.
Gloves might have some usefulness, but the outside of a glove can transmit the virus, too, so I believe masks are the key piece of protective equipment worth consideration.
Perhaps we could request the caller use dances with less hand-to-hand contact between neighbors.
Obviously we will ask people not to come to the dance unless they've been social-distancing and agree to do so for at least two weeks after the dance. Also obviously, we will ask anyone who after the dance feels that they have become infected to notify us, and we will respond appropriately.
As of this writing, Contra Shock's website (https://contrashock.org/) expresses cautious optimism that they will have their festival in early October. For future consideration, we might discuss whether to request that anyone who attends such a festival not attend our dance for at least four weeks afterward. We might also consider requesting that people who go to our dance go only to our dance and not others. The purpose is to minimize any spread, and this all depends on what's happening with the virus at the time.
Related to some of the above: For future consideration is how much ventilation we would want to attempt in the parish house hall and how to accomplish that.
VARIOUS MEDICAL STUFF
There is news of many potential therapeutic advances. Some involve the development of drugs, others the use of plasma from recovered victims and still others about medical people discussing best practices for patient treatment. There has never been a successful vaccine against a coronavirus, but this is THE coronavirus and development efforts are taking place all over the earth.
There is a lot of confusing news. Germany has fared much better than France. Perhaps that's because of different policies? But I've not seen any explanation of why in Switzerland the German-speaking areas are doing comparably better than the French-speaking ones. One could go on and on about puzzling things about this virus, and this is one illustration.
The effectiveness of various tests is now uncertain. At a later time, we can discuss whether, as Sandy suggested for consideration, we might be able to have some level of testing. Right now it's believed that temperature-taking can detect about 25% of asymptomatic infected people, so that's a possible topic. (While 25% might sound less than worthwhile, consider that many measures here would have a similar effect, and using them together would significantly reduce risk.)
My reading indicates that Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California are leading the way in an effort to install a track-and-trace, case-based intervention. We'll stay on top of developments in that area.
As you know, taking vitamin D and zinc is recommended, as is getting good rest and sufficient exercise. Sunlight (but not heat) is reported/believed to kill the virus, so one question is whether we'd benefit holding the dance when the sun is higher in the sky, say at 3 PM.
RECENT VIRUS DATA
Here is a table updated since May 23, which was what was available when I last wrote. Seven-day averages of the number of deaths for each area:
Peak day May 23 May 28
Area Peak day average average average
USA April 21 2208 1233 998
New York April 12 957 148 110
New Jersey May 3 278 118 80
USA ex NY, NJ May 5 1299 967 808
You can see the continuing favorable trend.
Data in the format above is not available, so I cannot refer you to a source. I've compiled it from what's posted day-by-day at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/, but if you go there you'll see just today's and yesterday's numbers. I have three months of data for the USA, NY and NJ and nearly that much for all other states and territories.
I have seen no updates of IMHE projections. The latest projection for NJ is for August 4 -- one death and sixteen new infections. The trend in the last five days is consistent with that.
New Jersey hospitalizations
Hospitalizations in NJ
April 3 5301
April 15 8084 (peak day)
May 26 2723
May 28 2797
May 29 2707 (perhaps incomplete as of this writing)
There is a chart available at https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ALirM/57/ I believe this is total hospital occupancy. In interpreting this, you can add your own knowledge of the virus's effects on how hospitals have been used for virus and non-virus patients.
I am following the trends of five categories of data on the virus for all US states and territories and loosely following what's happening in about ten other rich countries. I'll continue to do so and will inform you as appropriate. The focus here is the the death rate because while, for example, new infections are well worth tracking, they are influenced by testing levels, and deaths aren't.
Because of the quantity of data; the number of calculations; and frequent, small changes in how the daily data has been presented, there could be errors in what I've done. However, I've reviewed everything carefully and am confident that the overall conclusions are accurate.
Also, I thank Xander, a fellow numbers-monger, who has offered to review the workbook of the raw data and calculations of trends, including how I've handled various technical problems in the data presentation.
SUMMARY
This is based on where things stand today. We might dance outdoors a second time in August and be dancing a normal schedule and open to the public in September, or we might not dance again for a long time. We will seek to be flexible as events develop.
Comments are invited. Please be aware that we are not deciding anything now.
Again, thanks everyone. Good luck and good health to all of you, as well as everyone around the planet!
Leigh