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Dear list,
We should not assume that the actions in Binh Duong were the acts of
provocateurs. There is a vast academic literature on riots and "contentious
politics," and one of the obvious lessons from that literature is that
small incidents can spiral out of control -- if, that is, they are "primed"
by pre-existing tensions. The Tunisian "Jasmine Revolution" was set off my
a street foodseller who immolated himself in protest. The Chauri Chaura
"riot" in India, 1922 -- an infamous case in its time which led to Gandhi
stopping the Non-Cooperation Movement -- began with protests over the sale
of fish and alcohol. One could go on and on.
In the case of the South China Sea, Taiwan has, unfortunately, been playing
a dangerous game, allying with China on South China Sea issues, pushing its
own claim to Taiping Island, but trying to avoid the blowback from
Southeast Asian countries. It would do well to temper its public support
for the China claim on this issue.
Shawn McHale
>From what I’m hearing, some of what’s happening in Binh Duong is taking the
form of indiscriminate vandalism and opportunistic looting, targeting Thai
and other foreign companies that are not identified with the PRC’s claims in
the East Sea.
As it happens, I’m currently working my way through Jonathan Spence’s “In
Search of Modern China†(from the advent of the Qing to modern times), and
the news from Binh Duong sounds very much like the popular attacks on
foreign business enclaves in the early 20th century. Perhaps there is a
comparison to be made re: the fruits of socioeconomic inequality, as Vietnam
seems to have a large class of unemployed/underemployed men who are
disaffected and volatile.
:: Mike High
葩旗文仕
Khuê văn các
Independent Research Facility
Great Falls, VA
USA
I doubt that "agents provocateur" are sent by the government to fuel the flames. The government walks a tightrope between (1) looking and sounding tough on defending the homeland (a government that can't do that loses the mandate from heaven and with it its legitimacy), and (2) not losing control over "the street."
I am not surprised that Taiwanese factories would also be targeted. These are factory workers, not political science or history scholars. They have "Chinese" overseers, they feel that these people are not nice to them (look at all the strikes against Taiwanese, Chinese and Korean factories for bad labor conditions and, often mentioned, brutal overseers) and now they -- or someone like them -- is invading the country.
Riots can easily start over minor issues that then get conflated with others and again others.
_________________________________
Thomas Jandl, Ph.D.
School of International Service
American University
202-363-6810
thjandl at yahoo.com
On Singapore's interest in having order restored in the Sembcorp (a Singaporean company)-run industrial parks in Binh Duong province, see
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/more-singapore-stories/story/singapore-urges-vietnam-restore-order-industrial-parks-h
First paragraph: "SINGAPORE has called on the Vietnamese authorities to restore calm at the Sembcorp-run industrial parks in Binh Duong province urgently, after a wave of anti-China protests on Tuesday caused widespread damage to the facilities of a number of foreign-owned companies there. - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/more-singapore-stories/story/singapore-urges-vietnam-restore-order-industrial-parks-h#sthash.JSFCmX2J.dpuf "
The situation looks a bit similar to protests in Cambodia a few months ago where Korean companies were affected by domestic protests.
Best,
Tobias
Tobias Rettig
Independent Scholar
Singapore
Jonathan London on the riots in BinhDuong and HaTinh, fyi.
Nguyá»…n Äiá»n
Independent Researcher
Canberra
Preliminary thoughts on the riots <http://blog.jonathanlondon.net/?p=443>
Ways forward: Vietnam Diary, 15 May <http://blog.jonathanlondon.net/?p=449>
Posted on May 15, 2014 <http://blog.jonathanlondon.net/?p=449>
*The situation is ugly, dangerous, and scary. The violence in Ha Tinh is
likely to have repercussions. There are now (unconfirmed) reports of
multiple deaths (of unknown nationality). But even the riots must take
second place to the main story, which is leadership, or lack thereof. Time
to break the silence Hanoi. I for one hope that Vietnam can overcome this
situation in the earliest possible time frame. In this essay I discuss
concrete steps that need to occur.*
Dear VSG list members,
Jonathan London's proposed steps make sense. Although not having as favorable a view of Prime Minister Dung as Jonathan has nor sharing his view that General Secretary Trong and President Sang are conservative, I share Jonathan's prescriptions for how Vietnamese authorities should proceed regarding China. Vietnamese people from many walks of life are extremely concerned about China's encroachments into Vietnam, not just in the ocean waters to the country's east but inside Vietnam itself. To many Vietnamese, China has become a bully, if not worse, and the Vietnamese government seems to be scarcely making objecting. Vietnamese workers and others seek no war with China or anyone else; they seek national leadership speaking up for Vietnam the nation and for Vietnamese the people.
My two cents.
Ben
Dear list,
Are all of the companies attacked Taiwanese? It seems that companies owned
by Taiwanese have received the brunt of the attacks in Bình DÆ°Æ¡ng, Äồng
Nai, and HÃ TÄ©nh, but that these companies hire Chinese workers. Any
edification appreciated.
Shawn McHale
I have heard that attacked companies include Taiwanese, Korean, and
Chinese. The news does not bode well for FDI, but there are lots of
swirling rumors that this was instigated by different parties. It is
unclear which can take the credit.
Cheers,
Minh
Here’s my two paragraphs, based on a couple of questions from AFP…
With the riots in Binh Duong & Ha Tinh & protests elsewhere in Vietnam, is the situation spiraling out of the government's control?
If the Communist Party gets seriously worried it has the capacity to put hundreds of thousands of members of the various security forces on the ground and squash the riots completely. At the moment it has a difficult task of riding popular opinion in such a way that it doesn’t appear to be doing China’s bidding but isn’t letting the situation get out of control either. The Party is an intelligent organization – it knows there is popular anger about the South China Sea issue, particularly now. But in my view these riots are more about working conditions in foreign-owned factories and the general frustration of low-paid employees than about geopolitics. The riots haven’t only targeted mainland Chinese-owned factories – I’ve heard reports they’ve hit Taiwanese, Singaporean and even Korean and Thai plants. Some of the Taiwanese plants use mainland Chinese labour – which takes jobs away from locals. Some of these foreign employers run harsh regimes in their plants with poor pay and strict rules about breaks etc. These are also causes of grievance. In the Party’s view, letting people blow off steam might be the best way to manage the situation. Initially the riots may have helped Vietnam’s diplomatic struggle with China – it shows how hard it will be for them to back down in the current stand-off and provide an argument for why China needs to back down. In this the Vietnamese Communist Party is taking a leaf out of Beijing’s book. The Chinese Communist Party has also used ‘nationalist’ protest in its struggles with Japan over the islands in the East China Sea. It’s also worth saying that Taiwan is a player in the South China Sea disputes – it occupies the largest island in the Sea and is therefore part of the problem in Vietnamese eyes.
More broadly – what is this all about? The oil rig? Traditional animosity? Or is China sending a message with this oil rig deployment? If so, what and why?
I think China has badly miscalculated with its deployment of the oil rig. It may have been trying to split ASEAN over the issue, in which case it has failed. It has simultaneously outraged Vietnamese public opinion, hardened attitudes in the Vietnamese government, revitalized the ‘China Threat’ narrative in Southeast Asia and made the region more receptive to the United States ‘pivot’ to Asia. For what end? There’s very little chance that the drilling rig will strike oil. It’s due to spend the next three months drilling – but at a reported cost of $328,000 per day, it’s going to be an expensive expedition with very little prospect of reward. China may be playing a bigger game – trying to bludgeon Vietnam into some kind of ‘joint development’ deal in the Sea or persuade ASEAN to agree a Code of Conduct on behavior in the Sea that favours China’s position. If so, they seem unlikely to succeed at the moment.
Bill Hayton
Casual observer of developments
My information, from someone who works at a now-closed Thai-managed plant in
Binh Duong, is that the attacks are widespread and indiscriminate. Some
companies are painting Vietnam-friendly slogans, such as “Ủng Há»™ Việt Namâ€
or “Äảng Cá»™ng Sản Việt Nam muôn năm muôm năm,†on their walls in the hopes
of avoiding attack.
The BBC reports that Japanese and Korean plants are under attack because
protesters see the Chinese-style characters in their signage.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/vietnam/2014/05/140514_anti_china_protests_t
aiwan_affected.shtml
Photos from the scene:
http://bolapquechoa.blogspot.com/2014/05/binh-duong-bat-hang-loat-oi-tuong-p
ha.html?spref=fb
Reporting from Bloomberg and Reuters:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/anti-china-protests-in-vietnam-spur
-warnings-factory-closures.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/15/us-vietnam-china-riots-casualties-
idUSBREA4E03Y20140515
This appeal, signed by prominent members of leading civil society
organisations, calls for non-violent against Chinese aggressive action.
Nguyá»…n Äiá»n
Independent Researcher
Canberra
Jonathan London's blog has more influence than any of us could have
imagined: about an hour ago, every single Vinaphone subscriber received a
text message directly from Nguyen Tan Dung! Well, not exactly with the
content Jonathan recommended, but even so.
More substantively, I agree with Jonathan's analysis of political stalemate
shared by chu Dien. Nonetheless, I'd like to challenge his assumptions that
the only way to "a more promising future" for Vietnam is to "stand up to
China", and presumably ally with the United States. No matter what comes
out of this crisis, Vietnam (comparable to Mexico and Ukraine?) will
continue to be a middle-sized country with a much larger and more powerful
neighbor across the border. As such, it is not and never will be advisable
for any Vietnamese government to take a strongly anti-Chinese posture.
Resistance to economic and territorial encroachment always needs to be
complemented by diplomacy and cooperation. Up until this week, it seems
that the VN foreign ministry has kept this balance. Now their job is even
harder.
Much of the coverage of events in Ukraine in the Vietnamese press has had a
predictable pro-Putin slant. But the real story as I read it is different:
Large country miscalculates and tries to dominate neighbor with close
historical and cultural ties. Protesters push back and end up installing a
new nationalist government. In response, large country seizes part of
neighbor's territory and covertly funds separatists in another region to
destabilize the neighbor and push it toward civil war, while the rest of
the world watches. If the large country in this example were actually
China, do you think they would act any differently?
Vietnamese are understandably wary of Chinese moves. Perhaps in reaction, I
notice that many commentators, both Vietnamese and international, assume
that US intentions are pure and noble and have Vietnam's best interests at
heart. (The same sources also tend to believe that global capitalism, such
as the proposed "Trans-Pacific Partnership", will benefit everyone.) A
brief glimpse at recent history in the Middle East, Latin America, and
Vietnam itself should be enough to end that illusion! So yes, be wary, but
not just of the Chinese.
Andrew Wells-Dang
independent researcher
Hoi An, Vietnam
Hi, VSG members.
Here's a useful site that has links to numerous stories regarding recent protests, etc. in Vietnam.
http://xuandienhannom.blogspot.com/2014/05/tin-tuc-24h-qua-ve-tinh-hinh-bien-ong_16.html#more
Ben Kerkvliet
Emeritus Professor
Australian National University
Canberra
Affiliate Graduate Faculty
University of Hawai'i
Honolulu
If you read vietnamese, the link below is about chinese in Vietnam are leaving VN
http://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20140515-lo-so-bao-luc-nguoi-trung-quoc-o-at-roi-khoi-viet-nam
kimloan
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