Chinese Oil Rig in Vietnamese Waters

Dear list,

We should not assume that the actions in Binh Duong were the acts of

provocateurs. There is a vast academic literature on riots and "contentious

politics," and one of the obvious lessons from that literature is that

small incidents can spiral out of control -- if, that is, they are "primed"

by pre-existing tensions. The Tunisian "Jasmine Revolution" was set off my

a street foodseller who immolated himself in protest. The Chauri Chaura

"riot" in India, 1922 -- an infamous case in its time which led to Gandhi

stopping the Non-Cooperation Movement -- began with protests over the sale

of fish and alcohol. One could go on and on.

In the case of the South China Sea, Taiwan has, unfortunately, been playing

a dangerous game, allying with China on South China Sea issues, pushing its

own claim to Taiping Island, but trying to avoid the blowback from

Southeast Asian countries. It would do well to temper its public support

for the China claim on this issue.

Shawn McHale

>From what I’m hearing, some of what’s happening in Binh Duong is taking the

form of indiscriminate vandalism and opportunistic looting, targeting Thai

and other foreign companies that are not identified with the PRC’s claims in

the East Sea.

As it happens, I’m currently working my way through Jonathan Spence’s “In

Search of Modern China” (from the advent of the Qing to modern times), and

the news from Binh Duong sounds very much like the popular attacks on

foreign business enclaves in the early 20th century. Perhaps there is a

comparison to be made re: the fruits of socioeconomic inequality, as Vietnam

seems to have a large class of unemployed/underemployed men who are

disaffected and volatile.

:: Mike High

葩旗文仕

Khuê văn các

Independent Research Facility

Great Falls, VA

USA

I doubt that "agents provocateur" are sent by the government to fuel the flames. The government walks a tightrope between (1) looking and sounding tough on defending the homeland (a government that can't do that loses the mandate from heaven and with it its legitimacy), and (2) not losing control over "the street."

I am not surprised that Taiwanese factories would also be targeted. These are factory workers, not political science or history scholars. They have "Chinese" overseers, they feel that these people are not nice to them (look at all the strikes against Taiwanese, Chinese and Korean factories for bad labor conditions and, often mentioned, brutal overseers) and now they -- or someone like them -- is invading the country.

Riots can easily start over minor issues that then get conflated with others and again others.

_________________________________

Thomas Jandl, Ph.D.

School of International Service

American University

202-363-6810

thjandl at yahoo.com

On Singapore's interest in having order restored in the Sembcorp (a Singaporean company)-run industrial parks in Binh Duong province, see

http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/more-singapore-stories/story/singapore-urges-vietnam-restore-order-industrial-parks-h

First paragraph: "SINGAPORE has called on the Vietnamese authorities to restore calm at the Sembcorp-run industrial parks in Binh Duong province urgently, after a wave of anti-China protests on Tuesday caused widespread damage to the facilities of a number of foreign-owned companies there. - See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/more-singapore-stories/story/singapore-urges-vietnam-restore-order-industrial-parks-h#sthash.JSFCmX2J.dpuf "

The situation looks a bit similar to protests in Cambodia a few months ago where Korean companies were affected by domestic protests.

Best,

Tobias

Tobias Rettig

Independent Scholar

Singapore

Jonathan London on the riots in BinhDuong and HaTinh, fyi.

Nguyễn Điền

Independent Researcher

Canberra

Preliminary thoughts on the riots <http://blog.jonathanlondon.net/?p=443>

Ways forward: Vietnam Diary, 15 May <http://blog.jonathanlondon.net/?p=449>

Posted on May 15, 2014 <http://blog.jonathanlondon.net/?p=449>

*The situation is ugly, dangerous, and scary. The violence in Ha Tinh is

likely to have repercussions. There are now (unconfirmed) reports of

multiple deaths (of unknown nationality). But even the riots must take

second place to the main story, which is leadership, or lack thereof. Time

to break the silence Hanoi. I for one hope that Vietnam can overcome this

situation in the earliest possible time frame. In this essay I discuss

concrete steps that need to occur.*

Dear VSG list members,

Jonathan London's proposed steps make sense. Although not having as favorable a view of Prime Minister Dung as Jonathan has nor sharing his view that General Secretary Trong and President Sang are conservative, I share Jonathan's prescriptions for how Vietnamese authorities should proceed regarding China. Vietnamese people from many walks of life are extremely concerned about China's encroachments into Vietnam, not just in the ocean waters to the country's east but inside Vietnam itself. To many Vietnamese, China has become a bully, if not worse, and the Vietnamese government seems to be scarcely making objecting. Vietnamese workers and others seek no war with China or anyone else; they seek national leadership speaking up for Vietnam the nation and for Vietnamese the people.

My two cents.

Ben

Dear list,

Are all of the companies attacked Taiwanese? It seems that companies owned

by Taiwanese have received the brunt of the attacks in Bình Dương, Đồng

Nai, and HÃ TÄ©nh, but that these companies hire Chinese workers. Any

edification appreciated.

Shawn McHale

I have heard that attacked companies include Taiwanese, Korean, and

Chinese. The news does not bode well for FDI, but there are lots of

swirling rumors that this was instigated by different parties. It is

unclear which can take the credit.

Cheers,

Minh

Here’s my two paragraphs, based on a couple of questions from AFP…

With the riots in Binh Duong & Ha Tinh & protests elsewhere in Vietnam, is the situation spiraling out of the government's control?

If the Communist Party gets seriously worried it has the capacity to put hundreds of thousands of members of the various security forces on the ground and squash the riots completely. At the moment it has a difficult task of riding popular opinion in such a way that it doesn’t appear to be doing China’s bidding but isn’t letting the situation get out of control either. The Party is an intelligent organization – it knows there is popular anger about the South China Sea issue, particularly now. But in my view these riots are more about working conditions in foreign-owned factories and the general frustration of low-paid employees than about geopolitics. The riots haven’t only targeted mainland Chinese-owned factories – I’ve heard reports they’ve hit Taiwanese, Singaporean and even Korean and Thai plants. Some of the Taiwanese plants use mainland Chinese labour – which takes jobs away from locals. Some of these foreign employers run harsh regimes in their plants with poor pay and strict rules about breaks etc. These are also causes of grievance. In the Party’s view, letting people blow off steam might be the best way to manage the situation. Initially the riots may have helped Vietnam’s diplomatic struggle with China – it shows how hard it will be for them to back down in the current stand-off and provide an argument for why China needs to back down. In this the Vietnamese Communist Party is taking a leaf out of Beijing’s book. The Chinese Communist Party has also used ‘nationalist’ protest in its struggles with Japan over the islands in the East China Sea. It’s also worth saying that Taiwan is a player in the South China Sea disputes – it occupies the largest island in the Sea and is therefore part of the problem in Vietnamese eyes.

More broadly – what is this all about? The oil rig? Traditional animosity? Or is China sending a message with this oil rig deployment? If so, what and why?

I think China has badly miscalculated with its deployment of the oil rig. It may have been trying to split ASEAN over the issue, in which case it has failed. It has simultaneously outraged Vietnamese public opinion, hardened attitudes in the Vietnamese government, revitalized the ‘China Threat’ narrative in Southeast Asia and made the region more receptive to the United States ‘pivot’ to Asia. For what end? There’s very little chance that the drilling rig will strike oil. It’s due to spend the next three months drilling – but at a reported cost of $328,000 per day, it’s going to be an expensive expedition with very little prospect of reward. China may be playing a bigger game – trying to bludgeon Vietnam into some kind of ‘joint development’ deal in the Sea or persuade ASEAN to agree a Code of Conduct on behavior in the Sea that favours China’s position. If so, they seem unlikely to succeed at the moment.

Bill Hayton

Casual observer of developments

My information, from someone who works at a now-closed Thai-managed plant in

Binh Duong, is that the attacks are widespread and indiscriminate. Some

companies are painting Vietnam-friendly slogans, such as “Ủng Hộ Việt Nam”

or “Đảng Cộng Sản Việt Nam muôn năm muôm năm,” on their walls in the hopes

of avoiding attack.

The BBC reports that Japanese and Korean plants are under attack because

protesters see the Chinese-style characters in their signage.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/vietnam/2014/05/140514_anti_china_protests_t

aiwan_affected.shtml

Photos from the scene:

http://bolapquechoa.blogspot.com/2014/05/binh-duong-bat-hang-loat-oi-tuong-p

ha.html?spref=fb

Reporting from Bloomberg and Reuters:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-14/anti-china-protests-in-vietnam-spur

-warnings-factory-closures.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/15/us-vietnam-china-riots-casualties-

idUSBREA4E03Y20140515

This appeal, signed by prominent members of leading civil society

organisations, calls for non-violent against Chinese aggressive action.

Nguyễn Điền

Independent Researcher

Canberra

Jonathan London's blog has more influence than any of us could have

imagined: about an hour ago, every single Vinaphone subscriber received a

text message directly from Nguyen Tan Dung! Well, not exactly with the

content Jonathan recommended, but even so.

More substantively, I agree with Jonathan's analysis of political stalemate

shared by chu Dien. Nonetheless, I'd like to challenge his assumptions that

the only way to "a more promising future" for Vietnam is to "stand up to

China", and presumably ally with the United States. No matter what comes

out of this crisis, Vietnam (comparable to Mexico and Ukraine?) will

continue to be a middle-sized country with a much larger and more powerful

neighbor across the border. As such, it is not and never will be advisable

for any Vietnamese government to take a strongly anti-Chinese posture.

Resistance to economic and territorial encroachment always needs to be

complemented by diplomacy and cooperation. Up until this week, it seems

that the VN foreign ministry has kept this balance. Now their job is even

harder.

Much of the coverage of events in Ukraine in the Vietnamese press has had a

predictable pro-Putin slant. But the real story as I read it is different:

Large country miscalculates and tries to dominate neighbor with close

historical and cultural ties. Protesters push back and end up installing a

new nationalist government. In response, large country seizes part of

neighbor's territory and covertly funds separatists in another region to

destabilize the neighbor and push it toward civil war, while the rest of

the world watches. If the large country in this example were actually

China, do you think they would act any differently?

Vietnamese are understandably wary of Chinese moves. Perhaps in reaction, I

notice that many commentators, both Vietnamese and international, assume

that US intentions are pure and noble and have Vietnam's best interests at

heart. (The same sources also tend to believe that global capitalism, such

as the proposed "Trans-Pacific Partnership", will benefit everyone.) A

brief glimpse at recent history in the Middle East, Latin America, and

Vietnam itself should be enough to end that illusion! So yes, be wary, but

not just of the Chinese.

Andrew Wells-Dang

independent researcher

Hoi An, Vietnam

Hi, VSG members.

Here's a useful site that has links to numerous stories regarding recent protests, etc. in Vietnam.

http://xuandienhannom.blogspot.com/2014/05/tin-tuc-24h-qua-ve-tinh-hinh-bien-ong_16.html#more

Ben Kerkvliet

Emeritus Professor

Australian National University

Canberra

Affiliate Graduate Faculty

University of Hawai'i

Honolulu

If you read vietnamese, the link below is about chinese in Vietnam are leaving VN

http://www.viet.rfi.fr/viet-nam/20140515-lo-so-bao-luc-nguoi-trung-quoc-o-at-roi-khoi-viet-nam

kimloan

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