Estimative Products on Vietnam 1948-1975

On Thu, 4 Aug 2005, David Marr wrote:

My old friend Milton Leitenberg recently sent me "Estimative Products on

Vietnam, 1948-1975" (Washington: National Intelligence Council, 2005),

which contains 212 attempts by the US intelligence community to predict

what was going to happen in Vietnam. Thirty-eight documents appear in the

660pp bound volume, and 174 in the companion CD (pasted to the reverse back

page). There is a useful Introduction by Lloyd Gardner.

I'm only up to 1963 in the bound volume, and can't report any amazing

revelations. I'm struck once again by how little the US intelligence

establishment knew, or cared to know, about their Vietnamese enemies. On

the other hand, their estimates of the First Republic under Ngo Dinh Diem

were well-informed and pessimistic, yet they didn't trigger policy

re-thinks until much too late.

These `estimative products' involved byzantine efforts to reach consensus

from multiple US intelligence organizations, which often results in the

intellectual lowest common denominator. Reading them, I was reminded of

some Lao Dong Politburo formulations under the stewardship of Le Duan

(1960-86), carefully patched together to accommodate different

viewpoints. The question arises, how much did leaders in Washington or

Hanoi pay attention to such texts when deciding what to do?

David Marr

On Wed, 3 Aug 2005, Dan Tsang wrote:

Here's the catalog record for this title from our campus catalog

(http://antpac.lib.uci.edu):

Estimative products on Vietnam 1948-1975 / prepared under the

auspices of David F. Gordon

Pittsburgh, PA : Government Printing Office, [2005]

LOCATION CALL NO. STATUS

Langson Gov Info U.S. PREX 3.21:V67 NOT CHCKD OUT

Description xxxviii, 660 p. : maps ; 28 cm. + 1 CD-ROM (4 3/4 in.)

Gov doc # PREX 3.21:V67

Subj-lcsh Vietnamese conflict, 1961-1975 -- United States -- Sources

Vietnam -- History -- 1945-1975 -- Sources

United States -- Politics and government -- 1945-1989 -- Sources

Other author Gordon, David F

United States. National Intelligence Council

Note(s) "CD contains full text of the 38 papers included and 138 other

declassified documents"--P. v

At head of title: National Intelligence Council. NIC 2005-03 April 2005

Compiled by John K. Allen, Jr., John Carver, and Tom Elmore; with

introduction by Lloyd Gardner

Includes bibliographical references

System requirements for accompanying disc: Computer workstation and

CD-ROM drive

ISBN 0160749379

dan

Daniel C. Tsang

And the US Government Printing Offic (publisher) info on this:

http://bookstore.gpo.gov/dynamic/actions/GetPublication?stocknumber=041-015-00242-2

GPO Bookstore Publication Details

Title Estimative Products on Vietnam 1948-1975

Stock Number 041-015-00242-2

ISBN 0-16-074937-9

Availability In Stock - Warehouse and Retail (Priced)

Price $ 85.00

Price (non-U.S.) $ 119.00

Description NIC 2005-03. Compiled by CIA analysts John K. Allen, Jr.; John

Carver; and Tom Elmore. Introductory Essay written by Lloyd Gardner.

Contains intelligence documents (38 in this book and 174 in the

accompanying CD) related to the Vietnam War. Shows how the United States

intelligence Community viewed critical developments over a 27-year period,

ranging from analysis of the implications of the post-World War 2 breakup

of colonial empires to the Communist takeover of Saigon in 1975.

Publisher Executive Office of the President, National Intelligence Council

Year/pages 2005: 640 p.; CD-ROM in pocket.

Note NB1308

Key Phrases Intelligence Activities, NIC 2005 03, Vietnam War, Vietnamese

Conflict, Military History, Intelligence Services, Intelligence Community,

Intelligence Officers

SuDocs Class PREX 3.21:V 67

Author Allen, John K., Jr.

Weight

Quantity Price Discount

Binding Perfect Binding

Cover Paper

Available Date 05/20/05

Subject Bibliography 062

Status Date 05/20/05

Unit Each

Unit (non-U.S.) Each

dan

Daniel C. Tsang

Latest viet econ data: http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050801/3/24x50.html

From Reuters:

Monday August 1, 5:43 PM

Key Vietnam economic data - Aug 1

HANOI, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Following is a table of updated key economic

indicators for Vietnam, including the latest government's monthly

statistics.

CENTRAL BANK DLR/DONG RATE

Aug 1 July 1 Aug 2, 2004

15,840 15,820 15,709

THE VIETNAM INDEX

253.29 246.51 237.16

INTEREST RATE FOR LENDING

VIETNAMESE DONG Base rate

-- Short-term 0.65 pct/month (as of Feb. 1)

-- Medium & long-term 0.65 pct/month (as of Feb. 1)

-- Discount rate 4.0 pct/year (as of April 1)

(the c.bank uses in buying back short-term debt papers)

-- Re-discount rate 6.0 pct/year (as of April 1)

(the c.bank uses for loans to commercial banks) DOLLAR -- Banks are free

to fix rates.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (INFLATION)

July 05 June 05 July 04

Change on previous month 0.4 0.4 0.5

Change on a year earlier 7.5 7.6 9.1

(Source: General Statistics Office (GSO))

TRADE ACCOUNT

July 05 July 04 Jan-July 05 Jan-July 04

#2005

Exports($) 2.75 bln 2.16 bln 17.38 bln 14.17 bln 31.5

bln

Imports($) 3.15 bln 2.55 bln 21.11 bln 16.85 bln 36.0

bln

Balance($) -400 mln -390 mln -3.73 bln -2.68 bln -4.5

bln

Note: figures are rounded up

#Trade Ministry projections

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

(percent change on a year earlier)

July 05 July 04 Jan-July 05 Jan-July

04

Output 17.4 14.7 16.0 15.2

Percentage change

Of which:

State 9.0 10.5 10.0 11.6

Non-state 21.2 21.5 23.4 21.6

Foreign-invested 21.8 14.2 15.9 14.4

ECONOMIC FORECASTS/DATA

(in percentages, except trade deficit and reserves)

2005 2004 2003

GDP GROWTH on a year earlier

-- National Assembly 8.5 7.5-8.0 7.2-7.3

-- GSO ~ 7.69 7.24

-- ADB 7.6 7.50 7.10

-- IMF 7.0 7.0-7.5 6.20

-- World Bank 7.5 7.70 7.20

-- U.N. ESCAP 8.5 7.70 7.20

-- MPI #8.0

(# Above 8 percent)

CPI RISE

-- National Assembly #6.5 5.0 3.0

-- GSO 9.5 3.0

-- ADB 5.7 7.7 3.2

Core inflation 2.5 3.0 ~

-- IMF 7.5 9.7 3.2

-- World Bank 6.5 9.5 3.0

(#: below 6.5 percent)

(ADB: Annual average inflation, not the year end rate)

EXPORT GROWTH on a year earlier

-- National Assembly 16.0 12.0 16.7

-- GSO ~ 28.9 19.0

-- ADB 11.4 30.3 16.5

-- World Bank 14.0 28.9 20.8

-- Trade Ministry 17.0

IMPORT GROWTH on a year earlier

2005 2004 2003

-- GSO ~ 25.0 26.7

-- ADB 12.0 26.0 27.0

-- World Bank 13.0 25.0 28.3

-- Trade Ministry 14.0

TRADE DEFICIT (BLN $)

-- GSO ~ 5.52 5.0

-- ADB ~ 3.60 3.38

-- World Bank 6.11 5.64 5.14

-- Trade Ministry 5.5

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT GROWTH on a year earlier

-- National Assembly 16.0 15.0 15.0

-- GSO 16.0 16.0

-- World Bank 16.0 16.0 16.0

CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE as percentage of GDP

-- ADB -5.6 -5.7 -5.8

-- IMF ~ ~ -2.1

-- World Bank -4.5 -4.4 -4.7

FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES ($ billion)

-- ADB (+ gold) ~ 6.0 5.7

-- World Bank (+ gold) 6.5 6.3 4.9

-- Central bank ~ ~ 4.6

NOTE: ~ Not available

-- 2005 figures by the National Assembly are targets; GSO figures are its

latest estimates.

-- MPI: the Ministry of Planning and Investment

-- ESCAP: The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and

the Pacific.

-- A plan adopted by the Communist Party congress in April 2001 targets

average annual GDP growth of 7.5 percent for the 2001-2005 period and a

doubling of GDP by 2010.

-- Central bank's reserve figures were reported by state media in August

2003.

OTHER INDICATORS

1) Non-Performing Loans -- In January central governor Le Duc Thuy put the

bad loan ratio at 3.5 percent of Vietnam's total outstanding loans of 450

trillion dong, from 4.6 percent estimated in December.

In December the MPI said 4.1 percent of Vietnam's bank loans were bad,

down from 4.8 percent at the end of 2003. It gave no figures on the values

of loans or bad debts.

2) Foreign Debt -- The World Bank in April's East Asia Regional Update

report forecast the debt for 2005 at $17.2 billion, from $15.8 billion in

2004.

The Asian Development Bank report in April said Vietnam's external debt in

2004 was cut to 34 percent of GDP, from 38.7 percent in 2003.

In January, Finance Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung said Vietnam's foreign debt

in 2004 was reduced to 32 percent of the GDP value of $45.3 billion, from

up to 34 percent in 2003.

In 2000, Vietnam reached an agreement to cut by 85 percent its Soviet-era

debt to Russia, which Moscow estimated at $11 billion. In 2001, Russia

said Hanoi had agreed to repay $1.5 billion at a rate of $100 million a

year.

3) Sovereign ratings:

- Moody's (July 7, 2005): Ba3 for bonds and notes and B1 for bank deposits

(outlook stable).

- S&P (Oct. 1, 2004): BB- (the outlook reaffirmed as stable)

- Fitch (Nov 6, 2003): BB- (outlook changed to stable from positive).