Estimative Products on Vietnam 1948-1975
On Thu, 4 Aug 2005, David Marr wrote:
My old friend Milton Leitenberg recently sent me "Estimative Products on
Vietnam, 1948-1975" (Washington: National Intelligence Council, 2005),
which contains 212 attempts by the US intelligence community to predict
what was going to happen in Vietnam. Thirty-eight documents appear in the
660pp bound volume, and 174 in the companion CD (pasted to the reverse back
page). There is a useful Introduction by Lloyd Gardner.
I'm only up to 1963 in the bound volume, and can't report any amazing
revelations. I'm struck once again by how little the US intelligence
establishment knew, or cared to know, about their Vietnamese enemies. On
the other hand, their estimates of the First Republic under Ngo Dinh Diem
were well-informed and pessimistic, yet they didn't trigger policy
re-thinks until much too late.
These `estimative products' involved byzantine efforts to reach consensus
from multiple US intelligence organizations, which often results in the
intellectual lowest common denominator. Reading them, I was reminded of
some Lao Dong Politburo formulations under the stewardship of Le Duan
(1960-86), carefully patched together to accommodate different
viewpoints. The question arises, how much did leaders in Washington or
Hanoi pay attention to such texts when deciding what to do?
David Marr
On Wed, 3 Aug 2005, Dan Tsang wrote:
Here's the catalog record for this title from our campus catalog
(http://antpac.lib.uci.edu):
Estimative products on Vietnam 1948-1975 / prepared under the
auspices of David F. Gordon
Pittsburgh, PA : Government Printing Office, [2005]
LOCATION CALL NO. STATUS
Langson Gov Info U.S. PREX 3.21:V67 NOT CHCKD OUT
Description xxxviii, 660 p. : maps ; 28 cm. + 1 CD-ROM (4 3/4 in.)
Gov doc # PREX 3.21:V67
Subj-lcsh Vietnamese conflict, 1961-1975 -- United States -- Sources
Vietnam -- History -- 1945-1975 -- Sources
United States -- Politics and government -- 1945-1989 -- Sources
Other author Gordon, David F
United States. National Intelligence Council
Note(s) "CD contains full text of the 38 papers included and 138 other
declassified documents"--P. v
At head of title: National Intelligence Council. NIC 2005-03 April 2005
Compiled by John K. Allen, Jr., John Carver, and Tom Elmore; with
introduction by Lloyd Gardner
Includes bibliographical references
System requirements for accompanying disc: Computer workstation and
CD-ROM drive
ISBN 0160749379
dan
Daniel C. Tsang
And the US Government Printing Offic (publisher) info on this:
http://bookstore.gpo.gov/dynamic/actions/GetPublication?stocknumber=041-015-00242-2
GPO Bookstore Publication Details
Title Estimative Products on Vietnam 1948-1975
Stock Number 041-015-00242-2
ISBN 0-16-074937-9
Availability In Stock - Warehouse and Retail (Priced)
Price $ 85.00
Price (non-U.S.) $ 119.00
Description NIC 2005-03. Compiled by CIA analysts John K. Allen, Jr.; John
Carver; and Tom Elmore. Introductory Essay written by Lloyd Gardner.
Contains intelligence documents (38 in this book and 174 in the
accompanying CD) related to the Vietnam War. Shows how the United States
intelligence Community viewed critical developments over a 27-year period,
ranging from analysis of the implications of the post-World War 2 breakup
of colonial empires to the Communist takeover of Saigon in 1975.
Publisher Executive Office of the President, National Intelligence Council
Year/pages 2005: 640 p.; CD-ROM in pocket.
Note NB1308
Key Phrases Intelligence Activities, NIC 2005 03, Vietnam War, Vietnamese
Conflict, Military History, Intelligence Services, Intelligence Community,
Intelligence Officers
SuDocs Class PREX 3.21:V 67
Author Allen, John K., Jr.
Weight
Quantity Price Discount
Binding Perfect Binding
Cover Paper
Available Date 05/20/05
Subject Bibliography 062
Status Date 05/20/05
Unit Each
Unit (non-U.S.) Each
dan
Daniel C. Tsang
Latest viet econ data: http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050801/3/24x50.html
From Reuters:
Monday August 1, 5:43 PM
Key Vietnam economic data - Aug 1
HANOI, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Following is a table of updated key economic
indicators for Vietnam, including the latest government's monthly
statistics.
CENTRAL BANK DLR/DONG RATE
Aug 1 July 1 Aug 2, 2004
15,840 15,820 15,709
THE VIETNAM INDEX
253.29 246.51 237.16
INTEREST RATE FOR LENDING
VIETNAMESE DONG Base rate
-- Short-term 0.65 pct/month (as of Feb. 1)
-- Medium & long-term 0.65 pct/month (as of Feb. 1)
-- Discount rate 4.0 pct/year (as of April 1)
(the c.bank uses in buying back short-term debt papers)
-- Re-discount rate 6.0 pct/year (as of April 1)
(the c.bank uses for loans to commercial banks) DOLLAR -- Banks are free
to fix rates.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (INFLATION)
July 05 June 05 July 04
Change on previous month 0.4 0.4 0.5
Change on a year earlier 7.5 7.6 9.1
(Source: General Statistics Office (GSO))
TRADE ACCOUNT
July 05 July 04 Jan-July 05 Jan-July 04
#2005
Exports($) 2.75 bln 2.16 bln 17.38 bln 14.17 bln 31.5
bln
Imports($) 3.15 bln 2.55 bln 21.11 bln 16.85 bln 36.0
bln
Balance($) -400 mln -390 mln -3.73 bln -2.68 bln -4.5
bln
Note: figures are rounded up
#Trade Ministry projections
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
(percent change on a year earlier)
July 05 July 04 Jan-July 05 Jan-July
04
Output 17.4 14.7 16.0 15.2
Percentage change
Of which:
State 9.0 10.5 10.0 11.6
Non-state 21.2 21.5 23.4 21.6
Foreign-invested 21.8 14.2 15.9 14.4
ECONOMIC FORECASTS/DATA
(in percentages, except trade deficit and reserves)
2005 2004 2003
GDP GROWTH on a year earlier
-- National Assembly 8.5 7.5-8.0 7.2-7.3
-- GSO ~ 7.69 7.24
-- ADB 7.6 7.50 7.10
-- IMF 7.0 7.0-7.5 6.20
-- World Bank 7.5 7.70 7.20
-- U.N. ESCAP 8.5 7.70 7.20
-- MPI #8.0
(# Above 8 percent)
CPI RISE
-- National Assembly #6.5 5.0 3.0
-- GSO 9.5 3.0
-- ADB 5.7 7.7 3.2
Core inflation 2.5 3.0 ~
-- IMF 7.5 9.7 3.2
-- World Bank 6.5 9.5 3.0
(#: below 6.5 percent)
(ADB: Annual average inflation, not the year end rate)
EXPORT GROWTH on a year earlier
-- National Assembly 16.0 12.0 16.7
-- GSO ~ 28.9 19.0
-- ADB 11.4 30.3 16.5
-- World Bank 14.0 28.9 20.8
-- Trade Ministry 17.0
IMPORT GROWTH on a year earlier
2005 2004 2003
-- GSO ~ 25.0 26.7
-- ADB 12.0 26.0 27.0
-- World Bank 13.0 25.0 28.3
-- Trade Ministry 14.0
TRADE DEFICIT (BLN $)
-- GSO ~ 5.52 5.0
-- ADB ~ 3.60 3.38
-- World Bank 6.11 5.64 5.14
-- Trade Ministry 5.5
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT GROWTH on a year earlier
-- National Assembly 16.0 15.0 15.0
-- GSO 16.0 16.0
-- World Bank 16.0 16.0 16.0
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE as percentage of GDP
-- ADB -5.6 -5.7 -5.8
-- IMF ~ ~ -2.1
-- World Bank -4.5 -4.4 -4.7
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES ($ billion)
-- ADB (+ gold) ~ 6.0 5.7
-- World Bank (+ gold) 6.5 6.3 4.9
-- Central bank ~ ~ 4.6
NOTE: ~ Not available
-- 2005 figures by the National Assembly are targets; GSO figures are its
latest estimates.
-- MPI: the Ministry of Planning and Investment
-- ESCAP: The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and
the Pacific.
-- A plan adopted by the Communist Party congress in April 2001 targets
average annual GDP growth of 7.5 percent for the 2001-2005 period and a
doubling of GDP by 2010.
-- Central bank's reserve figures were reported by state media in August
2003.
OTHER INDICATORS
1) Non-Performing Loans -- In January central governor Le Duc Thuy put the
bad loan ratio at 3.5 percent of Vietnam's total outstanding loans of 450
trillion dong, from 4.6 percent estimated in December.
In December the MPI said 4.1 percent of Vietnam's bank loans were bad,
down from 4.8 percent at the end of 2003. It gave no figures on the values
of loans or bad debts.
2) Foreign Debt -- The World Bank in April's East Asia Regional Update
report forecast the debt for 2005 at $17.2 billion, from $15.8 billion in
2004.
The Asian Development Bank report in April said Vietnam's external debt in
2004 was cut to 34 percent of GDP, from 38.7 percent in 2003.
In January, Finance Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung said Vietnam's foreign debt
in 2004 was reduced to 32 percent of the GDP value of $45.3 billion, from
up to 34 percent in 2003.
In 2000, Vietnam reached an agreement to cut by 85 percent its Soviet-era
debt to Russia, which Moscow estimated at $11 billion. In 2001, Russia
said Hanoi had agreed to repay $1.5 billion at a rate of $100 million a
year.
3) Sovereign ratings:
- Moody's (July 7, 2005): Ba3 for bonds and notes and B1 for bank deposits
(outlook stable).
- S&P (Oct. 1, 2004): BB- (the outlook reaffirmed as stable)
- Fitch (Nov 6, 2003): BB- (outlook changed to stable from positive).