Afghanistan and Vietnam: Lessons Learned?
From: Daniel C. Tsang <dtsang@uci.edu>
Date: 2008/5/13
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
In Japan Focus: an Asian Pacific e-journal,
Afghanistan’s Vietnam Portent and American Will
Paul Rogers
The demolition of a French empire at Dien Bien Phu is inspiration to a Taliban aiming to erode the resolve of the United States and its allies, writes Paul Rogers.
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URL: http://japanfocus.org/products/details/2729
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Daniel C. Tsang
Social Science Data Librarian
Bibliographer for Asian American Studies, Economics,
Political Science, and Film & Media Studies (acting)
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From: Balazs Szalontai <aoverl@yahoo.co.uk>
Date: 2008/5/4
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Dear Daniel,
thanks a lot for this article! I found it quite interesting, though in comparing the Taliban-NATO conflict with the Franco-Viet Minh War, Rogers largely overlooks a very important factor, that is, the availability or unavailability of massive external support provided by a relatively strong power. In the Franco-Viet Minh War, Chinese support was certainly very important. Similarly, the Taliban's takeover in 1996 was based, to a large extent, on Pakistani support. There were only three states in the world which recognized the Taliban regime, and of course Pakistan was one of them. Thus if the Taliban want to defeat the NATO forces, they need support from Pakistan. Thus one of the most important questions is whether Pakistan would support, or at least tolerate, them, or not. And we cannot take for granted that the Pakistani government will really do its best to hunt down the Taliban if this would cause conflict with the fiercely independent and fanatically religious northwestern tribes. After all, the top brass of the Pakistani military does not love the U.S. as much as one may expect from them.
Another issue is that during their rule, the Taliban alienated a very substantial part of the population, and thus they cannot easily regain the trust of the people. While Karzai does look like Bao Dai in certain respects, I think the Viet Minh was much more successful in presenting its program as "the" national cause than the Taliban can do it in such a heterogeneous country as Afghanistan.
Best,
Balazs Szalontai
Mongolia International University