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From: Ng Sue Chia <alesspon@singnet.com.sg>
Date: Mar 13, 2006 9:53 PM
Subject: Re: [Vsg] Vietnam And WTO Accession
Dear all,
From what I've read, Vietnam had planned to access the WTO by December last
year. However, there doesn't seem to be any updates to hint if accession has
been granted to Vietnam or not and likewise it is also not reflected on
WTO's website. Any idea where it is heading now?
Regards,
SueChia, Ng
From: ANG Cheng Guan (HSSE) <angcg@nie.edu.sg>
Date: Mar 13, 2006 10:05 PM
Subject: RE: [Vsg] Vietnam And WTO Accession
Hi,
New target date is mid-2006. I don't think it will be earlier. The 10th
Party Congress is expected to be mid-2006 too.
From: Thomas Jandl <thjandl@yahoo.com>
Date: Mar 14, 2006 7:14 AM
Subject: RE: [Vsg] Vietnam And WTO Accession
Don't forget that for Viet Nam's accession, an agreement between Viet Nam and the U.S. -- and there is none yet -- needs to be translated into domestic legislation. And the U.S. system is slow in that respect. I'd be surprised if it was official by mid-2006.
But it doesn't really matter. Once all agreements are in place and it is a matter of formalities, the benefits really start occurring then -- investors taking a closer look etc.
From: Catharin Dalpino <catharindalpino@earthlink.net>
Date: Mar 14, 2006 10:54 AM
Subject: RE: [Vsg] Vietnam And WTO Accession
As Tom points out, negotiations with the US are the most challenging in Vietnam's quest for WTO accession. However, to the extent that subtle changes in the Washington climate can be discerned, there seems to be a growing perception here that an end to those bilateral negotiations is in sight, perhaps this spring or in June, when US Trade Representative Portman will visit Vietnam. Congress must then grant Vietnam Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status, which could happen no sooner than this summer.
I agree with Tom therefore than Vietnam's entry into the WTO isn't likely for the middle of the year, but seems increasingly plausible for the end of 2006.
Best,
Catharin
From: Adam @ UoM
Sent: Tuesday, March 14, 2006 2:54 PM
Subject: RE: [Vsg] Vietnam,the US And WTO Accession - a view from outside the US
If you look at the trade and FDI data for early this year, and donor sign-ups, then there is
little apparent hurry: all are showing big gains, especially exports to the US. Preparations
for international sales of shares and bonds for the large Vietnamese state business Groups
are also going well, suggesting that the advisory banks are quite happy that they will be
able to place the offerings easily. GDP continues to rise fast and the macro economy
continues to be stable.
This all suggests that it is the costs of WTO access, rather than the gains, that will be
coming to the forefront of people's attention - not just in Vietnam. Intriguing. On the
political side, given the widespread acceptance and support of the Vietnamese regime in the
West, and 'China', does the US have any real options to eventually doing what the rest of
the West wants? This suggests that it is the US, not Vietnam, that is the side under
pressure in this particular poker game at this particular time and place. But US-Vietnam
relations do remain one of the best poker games in the world to watch.
Adam
From: Thomas Jandl
Sent: Tuesday, March 14, 2006 3:40 PM
Subject: RE: [Vsg] Vietnam,the US And WTO Accession - a view from outside the US
I think there is a cost to not acceeding. Imagine the reputational cost of another catfish
case in Vietnam. Some high-pitched rhetoric and more Vietnamese could begin to believe that
this may not be such a good thing after all.
The other problem is exactly the increasing trade surplus. Why did the U.S. start that farce
over catfish? A powerful lobby. The greater the Vietnamese trade surplus, the more such
lobbies will emerge. And if Vietnam is 'out' of the system, some well-connected Senator can
pass a law decreeing that a Vietnamese catfish is not a catfish or that a Vietnamese T-shirt
is in fact something else and cannot come into the country under the textile quota.
I think the more Vietnam is exposed to the U.S. (even if through the seemingly positive
issue of a positive trade balance), the more Vietnam is at risk of a protectionist attack.
Being 'in' is a good -- and the only -- protection for a co! untry that has no clout in
bilateral negotiations or disputes.
Thomas Jandl
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