Beyond coal in VN --does anyone know anything more substantial than this tweet?
Diane Fox dnfox70 at gmail.com
Tue Jan 26 13:21:58 PST 2016
Mike Bloomberg (@MikeBloomberg <https://twitter.com/mikebloomberg?refsrc=email&s=11>)
1/26/16, 3:55 PM <https://twitter.com/mikebloomberg/status/692088573898670080?refsrc=email&s=11>
Great progress in Vietnam last week, as PM @nguyentandung <https://twitter.com/nguyentandung> announced bold plans to move #BeyondCoal <https://twitter.com/search?q=%23BeyondCoal&src=hash>: mikebloom.bg/1Tmc1fA <https://t.co/FgdptvExVv>
Diane
Diane Fox
Independent Scholar
Pam McElwee pdmcelwee at gmail.com
Tue Jan 26 18:27:27 PST 2016
Diane et al -
My reading of this announcement is cautiously optimistic. Others on the list with more up to date knowledge than I should chime in, but it is my understanding that PM Dung is asking related energy sectors to revisit the current master plan for energy (known as Decision No. 1855/QD-TTg approving Vietnam’s National Energy Development Strategy by 2020 and with a vision to 2050). That master plan was adopted in 2007, a lifetime ago when it comes to climate policy. 2007 was before Vietnam really got engaged with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (they went to the meetings before this, but weren’t really an active player). Now VN is part of a coalition called the “Climate Vulnerable Forum” (also known as the V20 for the original number of countries in it), and it is receiving hundreds of millions in international donor aid for various climate change adaptation projects. Thus the 2007 plan which called for expanded use of coal (both production of new plants as well as increased domestic mining of coal and imports from other countries) was looking increasingly anachronistic in this new context.
VN has also adopted as of 2012 a Green Growth Strategy which is becoming increasingly important as it gets integrated into the five year socio-economic development planning processes at national and lower levels. The GG strategy includes targets to reduce energy consumption per capita by small increments (around 1% per year), as well as to reduce the carbon intensity of energy use/production (e.g. produce less CO2 per unit of GDP) with an eventual goal to reduce overall carbon emissions off business-as-usual scenarios by 2050. These goals would be impossible if Vietnam were to continue down the path to ramp up coal-fired electricity production to 50% or more of total energy use.
The proof will be in the pudding, as they say. PM Dung has merely called on ministries to revise the 2007 plan. It will still need to actually be revised and the new guidelines adopted. And it remains to be seen what the actual strategy will be to replace those coal sources – renewables? Nuclear? We will see what they come up with in the proposed energy strategy revisions over the next months and years.
Pam McElwee
Dr. Pamela McElwee
Associate Professor, Department of Human Ecology
School of Environmental and Biological Sciences
Affiliated graduate faculty: Department of Anthropology, Department of Geography, Department of Women’s and Gender Studies, Bloustein School of Public Policy
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Office phone: 848-932-9209
Mobile phone: 480-252-0999
David Brown nworbd at gmail.com
Tue Jan 26 19:23:48 PST 2016
Pam, thanks very much for explaining where energy policy may be heading in
Vietnam.
>From my perspective, absent the discovery of more fields offshore that will
sustain the nation's oil and gas production, the only substantial
alternative to coal for baseline power production will be construction of
quite a few nuclear power plants. I know that's a problem for many folks,
but exploiting Vietnam's remaining hydropower potential is even more
problematic. Lots of windmills arrayed along the Binh Thuan coast
(especially) can make a substantial contribution -- maybe 10% of the total
energy demand in 2030? Rebuilding the nation's power distribution grid --
now mainly obsolete -- can reduce transmission losses considerably.
Inevitably, however, if the objective is to avoid reliance on imported soft
coal from Australia and Indonesia, nuclear power plants must be a large
part of the solution.
Chuck Searcy chuckusvn at gmail.com
Tue Jan 26 20:30:38 PST 2016
Thanks also, Pam, for your instructive message and the important
conversation it will encourage, hopefully. And David, I agree with your
comments although I take exception to the nuclear-forward approach -- but
that's another discussion, another time.
>From my perspective as a resident in Vietnam, a gaping hole in Vietnam's
energy strategy and the programs and initiatives of NGOs and other
interested institutions is quite simply: CONSERVATION.
There is no ethic of *conserving *and avoiding energy waste here, other
than an impressively widespread habit of switching off lights and electric
fans anytime someone exits a room. Good. That shows some awareness (but
more likely ingrained habit, such as children slipping off their shoes at
the door, dutifully, as they were taught).
However, in daily life there are obvious energy losses and related
electricity costs and excessive, unnecessary demand that results in
outages. The most obvious is cafes and restaurants, in the heat of summer,
that routinely leave one or two doors gaping open, as air conditioning
units labor at full capacity trying to cool the outside world.
Other examples are the remaining old, gas-guzzling and inefficient internal
combustion engines that are finally giving way to newer, more efficient
models -- but which are still dependent on fossil fuels. (No electric
vehicles yet that I know of.)
Another example is the increasing habit, especially in urban areas, of
people jumping onto a motorbike (or into a car, more and more), to travel
only two or three blocks when a quick walk would easily do. And no one in
Hanoi or Saigon has given any thought, apparently, to attempting to
synchronize traffic lights so that vehicles don't have to stop at every
single intersection, engines idling wastefully, as clouds of exhaust
pollutants are emitted invisibly.
Those are minor observations, but in a country of 90 million people
constantly on the move, they add up.
The Vietnamese once had a strong cultural tradition of conservation, and
reuse. I think that is still being practiced, more in the countryside than
in urban areas. But it could easily be brought back into public
consciousness except there is no one in the government or positions of
influence who talks about it. The discussion is always "how to expand
production" (coal or otherwise) to meet demand, without looking at what's
causing the demand and how much waste could be curtailed.
CHUCK SEARCY
*=========================================*
*CHUCK SEARCY*
*International Advisor, Project RENEW*
*Vice President, Veterans For Peace Chapter 160*
*Co-Chair, NGO Agent Orange Working Group*
*Mb +8 490 342 0769*
*Sk chucksearcy*
*E chuckusvn at gmail.com <chuckusvn at gmail.com>*
Carl Robinson robinsoncarl88 at gmail.com
Tue Jan 26 22:07:22 PST 2016
Good observations there, Chuck, especially how so many Vietnamese drive a
motorbike when a bit of a walk wouldn't hurt. But, similarly, why do they
put elevators on the side of Marble Mountain near Danang and run chairlifts
up every hill and the odd bay, like Nha Trang? Also agree they need a lot
of work on simple conservation.
My younger brother-in-law who lives here in Australia is heavily into solar
installation, including still pioneering work in battery storage, but very
surprised how little work's been done in Vietnam. Sure, lots of talk but
with that climate, it'd be ideal not just for large commercial
installations but households, especially in remote areas where the
combination of solar & storage would work extremely well. He travels
regularly back to Vietnam - and Cambodia - on promises of new projects
which, sadly, never seem to come to fruition.
The cost of solar panels has come down dramatically in recent years and
most are now made in China which, if anything, has a glut of 'em at the
moment. Costs on battery storage still needs to come down, but no reason
why small installations can't move ahead with proper incentives.
The Vietnamese are quite innovative -- and also quick to take up new
technologies -- and this is a natural one for the country to boost,
especially given all that sunlight ! No reason why Vietnam can't be
producing its own solar panels, for starters, as they also have a thriving
mineral sands industry.
Best regards,
Carl Robinson
USOM/USAID '64-68; Associated Press, Saigon '68-75
Convenor: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/vietnam-old-hacks.
Sydney, Australia.
Oscar Salemink o.salemink at anthro.ku.dk
Wed Jan 27 02:04:09 PST 2016
Slightly off-topic, but a good excuse to introduce to recent articles by Annuska Derks on coal briquettes in Vietnam:
Fuelling change: A biography of the beehive coal briquette in post-Đổi Mới Vietnam (see http://mcu.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/03/27/1359183515578938)
Stars, Spirits and Coal: Materiality and Immateriality in Northern Vietnam (see http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14442213.2014.989902).
Best regards,
Oscar Salemink
Professor in the Anthropology of Asia
Department of Anthropology
Faculty of Social Sciences
University of Copenhagen
Øster Farimagsgade 5
1353 København K.
Denmark
Office: CSS - Bygning 16, Opgang i, room 16.0.24
TLF +45-35 32 44 72
FAX +45-35 32 35 65
E-mail: o.salemink at anthro.ku.dk<mailto:o.salemink at anthro.ku.dk>
Personal webpage at the Department of Anthropology<http://anthropology.ku.dk/staff/beskrivelse/?id=403491>
Personal webpage at the Asian Dynamics Initiative<http://asiandynamics.ku.dk/english/people/vip_staff/os/>
Adjunct Professor at the Institute for Religion, Politics and Society (ACU Melbourne) <https://irps.acu.edu.au/>
Project Leader of the Sapere Aude project ”Global Europe: Constituting Europe from the outside in through artefacts”<http://globaleurope.ku.dk/>
Personal webpage at Academia.edu<https://ku-dk.academia.edu/OscarSalemink>
Focaal: Journal of Global and Historical Anthropology<http://journals.berghahnbooks.com/focaal/>
Routledge Handbook of Religions in Asia<http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415635035/>
Wed Jan 27 08:35:40 PST 2016
Finally----good conservation advice and comment.
Thank you.
Joanna Kirkpatrick
Wed Jan 27 08:41:34 PST 2016
Comment in favor of solar energy is right to the point, especially in nations having regular sunlight.
India has been buying oil and running coal power ever since Independence…at last they are officially considering using the tons of sunlight that make May and June hellish for humans!!! Remains to be seen if they do anything about it.
Joanna Kirkpatrick
Andrew Pearson pearson.drew at gmail.com
Wed Jan 27 17:52:59 PST 2016
About this Vietnam energy thread: The politburo should spend a month in Denmark to understand what what Vietnam can do right now. Not with charcoal, coal or hydro or petroleum or uranium- which have no future, but with solar, wind, geothermal, waste to energy. Denmark is the wold leader, not by accident though. In the thirties, government leaders realized that investment the country needed in order to recover from the depression and develop infrastructure would not come from private enterprise because the rewards were not immediate. Government had to make the commitments and for long term, though the recent conservative leadership shows some loss of conviction.
This is an interesting PBS report on wind and solar for those who are able to view it.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/can-denmark-make-energy-demand-follow-renewable-supply/
Also, there’s a remarkable organization in Seattle that works to educate business and government about the most advanced practices, not just in Denmark:
Patricia Chase runs it.
Andrew Pearson
Documentary producer
Thomas Jandl thjandl at yahoo.com
Wed Jan 27 19:16:31 PST 2016
I don't recommend spending time and money to learn from Denmark now. One of the poorer countries -- and one with significant problems with infrastructure, productivity and qualified workers -- can hardly try to emulate one of the very richest and technologically and human-resources-wise advanced ones.
I'd suggest Viet Nam focus on a radically different approach: low tech and with minimal need for sophisticated infrastructure. Local biogas is one approach for remote areas. Wind is fine, but not the Danish way for the moment, but rather, again, locally.
Denmark is great, but not applicable for Viet Nam at this point. _________________________________ Thomas Jandl, Ph.D. Non-Resident Scholar Viet Nam National University -- Ha Noi Partner, TJMR Asia Consultants Washington: 443-901-2612 Viet Nam mobile: 0126 558 2026 thjandl at yahoo.com
Cecilia Han Springer cecilia.h.springer at berkeley.edu
Wed Jan 27 23:19:57 PST 2016
Hi all,
I think that the primary challenge for Vietnam's energy sector is
maintaining reliability for the electric grid, a priority which likely
trumps decarbonization and any hopes of moving #BeyondCoal. Rising living
standards and the transition to a more advanced manufacturing and service
economy will drastically increase electricity demand. Vietnam actually has
relatively poor wind and solar potential, especially when considering
competition with agriculture for land area, and nearly all large-scale
hydropower has already been captured. Yet domestic coal reserves are ample.
In the future, energy efficiency and nuclear power could help reduce coal
use, as David and Chuck mentioned, but a major barrier to these
technologies is capital availability. It doesn't help that Vietnam's
electricity prices, especially for industrial users, are quite subsidized.
The World Bank, IFC, and other development banks and agencies are funding
several energy efficiency initiatives, including trying to incentivize
banks in Vietnam to invest in energy efficiency technology. But there is
still a major shortfall of capital for large-scale clean energy
infrastructure projects. Vietnam itself and many regional partner countries
(Japan, China) are financing domestic energy projects, but few of them are
'clean' (mostly coal and electricity infrastructure).
I am unsure of the extent to which the policies and goals described by Dr.
McElwee influence decision-making by energy investors. In the future, could
there be a trickle-down effect from these high-level commitments? I also
think there is a lot of room for small-scale solutions, such as
micro-grids, improved grid metering, distributed solar, and household-level
conservation, as mentioned above.
This is a fascinating thread and I have learned a lot from the emails here.
If anybody has further resources on this topic, or would like to discuss
further, I hope they will get in touch with me. I am currently working on a
master's thesis in this area.
Thanks!
Cecilia Springer
MS/PhD student, Energy and Resources Group, UC Berkeley
cecilia.h.springer at berkeley.edu
Chuck Searcy chuckusvn at gmail.com
Thu Jan 28 00:04:47 PST 2016
Cecelia,
Thanks much, and same request back to you: please keep us informed (or at
least me, but I assume others would be interested) in what your study and
research, and writing, produce in this area. I remain eternally optimistic
that Vietnam can make good use of alternative energy options, maybe in very
effective and even innovative ways. Biogas, for example, is more widely
used than I had thought. Couple of years ago I visited a small
entrepreneur producing solar cookers that were simple but easy to use,
quite practical, with a number of them installed in mountain villages.
In Berkeley, where you are and where I stayed a few days with friends last
year, there was a graphic example of successful alternative energy
applications. On the roof of their house was a basic solar collector, size
of a dining room table, nothing special. It fed electricity back into the
grid. Aided by a complicated set of rebates or discounts because they had
purchased an electric car, their monthly electric bill -- even with the car
recharging overnight, every night -- was about $3 to $5 a month! That's
*way* below what I pay in Ha Noi, and I'm a very moderate user.
CHUCK
*=========================================*
*CHUCK SEARCY*
*VN +8 490 342 0769*
*Sk chucksearcy*
*E chuckusvn at gmail.com <chuckusvn at gmail.com>*
David Brown nworbd at gmail.com
Thu Jan 28 00:25:32 PST 2016
Chuck's comment brings us to the heart of the problem, 'market socialism.'
If EVN (the state power company) can only charge 5 or 6 US cents per
kilowatt hour, there's no incentive for users to conserve energy or invest
in green alternatives. So the first thing is for the gov't to take a real
deep breath and raise electricity tariffs considerably. The second thing
is to cross subsidize the first gigawatt or two of solar and wind power, to
find out if it really can be delivered reliably at, say, 12 cents/kwh.
When the prices reflect the real cost of delivering power, there will be
plenty of incentive to conserve at both the end user and the
transmission/distribution levels.
There's not a lot of doubt that Vietnamese consumers respond to price
signals. Witness not only the biogas plants but also the rooftop water
heaters now replacing propane (delivered in tanks, priced at real cost)
everywhere in Vietnam. .
Regards, David Brown
freelance writer/analyst
Fresno, California USA
Thomas Jandl thjandl at yahoo.com
Thu Jan 28 08:57:41 PST 2016
So true, David!
I am the President of my condo building. We include electricity and gas in our condo fees. I have neighbors ... many of them ... who turn the heat on full blast and when it gets too hot open the windows! Reverse in summer: AC full blast and when chilly open the window.
There are some real advantages to the capitalist mantra that there is no free lunch, and externalities are bad!_________________________________ Thomas Jandl, Ph.D. Non-Resident Scholar Viet Nam National University -- Ha Noi Partner, TJMR Asia Consultants Washington: 443-901-2612 Viet Nam mobile: 0126 558 2026 thjandl at yahoo.com
Andrew Pearson pearson.drew at gmail.com
Thu Jan 28 07:02:09 PST 2016
Perhaps the central issue is good governance. I’d define that as an electorate able to choose leadership that makes policy benefitting most of the people over time. The US could learn a lot in Denmark too, but it can’t figure out lesson one: how to elect enough good people to leadership positions to fix it’s third world infrastructure, among other things, and put people to work. There’s plenty of money around but the US is awash in bozo decison-making and anti-social policy. Everybody but a very few suffer for that. It’s clear that Vietnamese with leadership potential should go to Denmark, (and Sweden and Norway and Finland and a few other countries) with a bike, notepad and backpack. Because Denmark is “wealthy” already doesn’t mean there’s nothing practical to bring back home right now. Denmark is not some amazing erector set that Vietnamese just can’t buy much less figure out how to put together. There are ideas of good governance in Denmark and also, something the Vietnamese are very good at: how to apply common sense solutions to complex problems. After all, they defeated the most technologically advanced country in the world with their poetic sensibility, bikes and tunnels. (OK, plus a lot of superior, very practical military gear from the Russians and Chinese.) There’s plenty of trash in Vietnam now, and the Danes have figured out how to burn it without releasing poisonous chemicals in the air. The US could adopt that technology if it were governed better. Solar? I remember those winter months in the south with day after day of clear sky. Sure, Denmark has incredible wind potential they’ve taken advantage of with their turbines. But Vietnam has a lot more sun. And bikes are not exactly too advanced for the Vietnamese. The Danes have figured out how to keep them in heavy use. They tax automobile purchases unmercifully. So they have streets with bike lanes and bike stop lights and clean air. Imagine Saigon and Hanoi (Beijing?)with bike lanes, bike stop lights instead of car and motorbike anarchy. That’s not such an extraordinary notion. I know ordinary Vietnamese to be among the smartest and most innovative people on earth. So yes, they should go to Denmark in large numbers and study how to make good public policy. They can join Americans on their study tours.
Andrew Pearson
Documentary producer
Thomas Jandl thjandl at yahoo.com
Thu Jan 28 08:33:36 PST 2016
I would be interested how much solar potential Viet Nam has. We think of Viet Nam as tropical and therefore sunny, but it really is pretty much always gray in the South. Try to take really nice pictures without filter.
I am by no means a technical guy, but I once heard that solar works as long as you can see your shadow -- but the brighter the more efficient. In TP HCM, it's always between 'barely seeing my shadow and not at all' gray. Would that be conducive or enough for solar? _________________________________ Thomas Jandl, Ph.D. Non-Resident Scholar Viet Nam National University -- Ha Noi Partner, TJMR Asia Consultants Washington: 443-901-2612 Viet Nam mobile: 0126 558 2026 thjandl at yahoo.com
Thu Jan 28 08:23:18 PST 2016
Andrew, thanks for this non-corporate-driven comment and the informative
links.
Cheers,
Joanna K.
Anthro.