What Explains Vietnam’s Current COVID-19 Struggles?

From: Vsg <vsg-bounces@mailman11.u.washington.edu> On Behalf Of Greg Nagle

Sent: Monday, June 21, 2021 3:22 AM

To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>

Cc: ylankvo <ylankvo@gmail.com>; Hue Le <thivanhue@gmail.com>

Subject: [Vsg] What Explains Vietnam’s Current COVID-19 Struggles?

Might stir up some discussion

What Explains Vietnam’s Current COVID-19 Struggles?

Once considered the gold standard for COVID-19 response, Vietnam is now battling rising infections and a glacial vaccine rollout.

Vietnam is in an unusually hard spot right now, with a surge in new COVID-19 cases and the lowest rate of vaccinations in all of Southeast Asia. A few months ago, Vietnam was held up as the gold standard for its COVID-19 response efforts. Vietnam had some of the lowest rates – both cases and deaths – in the world, despite its 1,300-kilometer border with China and flourishing bilateral trade.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/what-explains-vietnams-current-covid-19-struggles/

This article is free

The Diplomat has removed paywall restrictions on our coverage of the COVID–19 crisis.

Greg Nagle

PhD Forest and watershed science

Cornell University

Hanoi, Vietnam

From: Vsg <vsg-bounces@mailman11.u.washington.edu> On Behalf Of Greg Nagle

Sent: Monday, June 21, 2021 8:21 PM

Cc: VSG <vsg@u.washington.edu>

Subject: Re: [Vsg] What Explains Vietnam’s Current COVID-19 Struggles?

I think that the nature of the new covid variants is the overriding aspect with political problems a distant 2nd,

What is spooky about the current HCM outbreak is how many of the infections don't have known origins, they pop up all over the place,

Single most important influence were the church members who spread across the city for a week or longer, Past covid variants took about a week after exposure to hit peak viral levels and higher likelihood of transmission, Now it takes just a few days with more of the virus in the throat,

In the past it was said that 80% of virus carriers do not pass it on to anybody else while 5% account for most transmissions,

I do not think that is true any more.

The karaoke places seem the worst since any infected person yowling with a big wet mouth in an enclosed place is the worst scenario. But perhaps best not overstate that transmission center.

Ditto the singing in the church, At one event near Seattle last year, 53 people or 3/4 of people in choir practice picked up the virus after a 2 hour practice when there was no hugging and people kept their distance, These were restrained Episcopalians who do not tend to howl in rapture.

It is just human nature that there will be outliers like karaoke, We also had Viet border jumpers from Cambodia and Lao who were trying to avoid quarantine. One positive carrier traveled all over the north, Unless a person gets especially sick and gets tested, we will never know they had it and who they spread it to. In the past about 30% of carriers were asymptomatic but could still be very contagious,

The testing aspect intrigues me , At present they seem to be mostly using pooled tests where samples from 5 people are composited, In China they composited up to 30 people, If the composited test is negative, all people are clear, If positive, all 5 tested again individually to find the carrier, This works well enough when virus in the population is low, but with high levels such as we had last year in NYC, pooling is too much effort.

Very worrying is how people can test negative 2 or 3 times and still come positive soon after, most often due to exposure late in their quarantine,

The 2 Chinese in Yen Bai went to karaoke after their release and were required to spend another week alone. But they had been spending time in their quarantine hotel with an Indian who turned out to be infected, They had already had several negative tests and got slack. Such is life, 2 weeks alone in hotel room is hard for anyone,

Without running those quarantine places like a prison, it seems near impossible to completely contain them. The Australians said that they expected a 1.5% seepage out quarantine and that was with old less contagious varieties.

I am in Hoi An, no covid here, so safe enough,

Greg Nagle

PhD Forest and watershed science

Cornell University

Hanoi, Vietnam

From: Vsg <vsg-bounces@mailman11.u.washington.edu> On Behalf Of Michael Tatarski

Sent: Monday, June 21, 2021 7:26 PM

To: billhayton <bill@billhayton.com>

Cc: VSG <vsg@u.washington.edu>

Subject: Re: [Vsg] What Explains Vietnam’s Current COVID-19 Struggles?

On Tue, Jun 22, 2021 at 9:28 AM Michael Tatarski <matatarski@gmail.com> wrote:

I've wondered about the impact of the leadership transition in general (both nationally and at lower levels) on the response to this outbreak. I know the Delta variant has made it more complicated, but during previous infection waves it seemed like the situation was always under control, and public messaging was clear and consistent. The same cannot be said this time around, with examples of fairly dramatic policy actions being quickly reversed, or implemented at the last second (like Dong Nai requiring entrants from HCMC to quarantine, which lasted for about 12 hours). Another example is the health ministry announcing (evidently incorrectly) the discovery of a new variant, which got picked up internationally and has never been discussed again. The political system isn't my strong suit in terms of expertise, but as a resident of the country it's been noticeably different this time around.

On Tue, Jun 22, 2021 at 6:44 AM billhayton <bill@billhayton.com> wrote:

Has anyone linked HCMC’s difficulties in tackling the pandemic with the current anti-corruption campaign in the city. Our own David Brown has written a great summary of Hanoi’s efforts to impose discipline on the old gang of Saigon profiteers by the end of June.

It's for Asia Sentinel here…

https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/ho-chi-minh-city-looks-to-get-its

Best wishes

Bill Hayton

Independent researcher

On 21 Jun 2021, at 18:12, Greg Nagle <gnagle2000@gmail.com> wrote:

True, too easy to blame the foreigners under quarantine although they were not the only ones sneaking into supposedly closed karaoke places , Several of these cultural centers had big fines,

I prefer to just blame karaoke but best avoid that until I do some field work in a few,

But in HCM largest trigger for infections appears to be a Christian church,

Can't do church, no karaoke, society grinds to a halt .

But quarantine has also been a weak point in other countries since seepage appears inevitable , Last summer a Viet flight attendant was in one in HCM and visited a friend in another building late in his stay where he got infected. He was released after 2 negative covid tests and went home to complete quarantine, But he also violated that and managed to trigger an infection chain.

Not so bad then since it was the older, less infectious variety,

But now all bets seem to be off,

Greg Nagle

PhD Forest and watershed science

Cornell University

Hanoi, Vietnam

On Mon, Jun 21, 2021 at 11:49 PM Pierre Asselin <passelin@sdsu.edu> wrote:

Greg/All:

-"One such place might have ignited some or much of the outbreak in the north when 2 Chinese violated their quarantine..."

-"Same thing happened in Cambodia when Chinese bribed their way out of quarantine to go to karaoke place."

Clearly, this is all on the Chinese.

I must say, I'm stupefied that they would be blamed by the Vietnamese. Vietnam has so much love for all that is Chinese these days. Also, if memory serves me right, the Hanoi government is not in the habit of blaming foreign actors for domestic troubles. In fact, I think that's the first time that's ever happened. I guess the Party is not infallible after all...

Pierre

Pierre Asselin

Professor of History - Dwight E. Stanford Chair in US Foreign Relations

San Diego State University

History Department

5500 Campanile Dr.

San Diego, CA 92182-6050

Latest book: https://www.amazon.com/Vietnams-American-War-Cambridge-Relations/dp/1107510503

On Mon, Jun 21, 2021 at 9:21 AM Greg Nagle <gnagle2000@gmail.com> wrote:

As usual, karaoke places have been the exception. One such place might have ignited some or much of the outbreak in the north when 2 Chinese violated their quarantine to spend time in one, As always I struggle to remain kind and tolerant. Perhaps I have been missing much?

Same thing happened in Cambodia when Chinese bribed their way out of quarantine to go to karaoke place.

https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20210621/karaoke-shop-offers-striptease-service-despite-covid19-ban-in-southern-vietnam/61633.html?

The nature of an epidemic is managing the uncertainty, Up until the recent outbreak Vietnam had it much in control, But now they face the same challenges other countries had where it spread much more with much uncertainty of infection origins and the likely progress.

, .

HCM looks frightening, but it will be interesting to see how they get a grip on it eventually, Nobody else in any country besides China managed that which used much more severe measures with total lockdowns.

But no other country besides China had as focused a testing program as Vietnam,

I do not think that ever before in history have we seen such large scale quick testing of large populations,(??)

The only analogous situation seems to be the quietly spreading HIV outbreak in San Francisco in the early 80s.

Not really comparable but...

Greg Nagle

PhD Forest and watershed science

Cornell University

Hanoi, Vietnam

On Mon, Jun 21, 2021 at 9:37 PM Greg Nagle <gnagle2000@gmail.com> wrote:

I agree with the general take the article has on VN covid outbreak but a key aspect missing is how the new Alpha and Delta variants much changed the pandemic in Vietnam, Vietnam has had its back to the wall since what worked well enough before has not been enough recently. But the worst outbreak in Bac Giang appears to be finally abating.

https://vnexpress.net/covid-19/covid-19-viet-nam?fbclid=IwAR2KVw0t6uzlHePOlk-3hCEebaEV3boTD0F5PCnJOzJridmY-O0MZpiUjtI

Nonetheless I think that Vietnam has had one of the best, most well directed testing programs in the world.

( my peeve is no testing of sewage which is an easy way to sample large apartment blocks and any neighborhood that is all on sewage collection systems, )

The Delta (Indian) variant is about twice as infectious which puts VN unto a whole new ballgame, This might have been predicted but it has burned across the world with it now spreading through areas in the US where people have resisted the vax and often ignore simple precautions such as masks,

People get sick and contagious much faster since it is more in the throat,

from link below

Life is random, and COVID is very much so. A difference in seemingly innocuous circumstances can lead to very different outcomes.

The key point is that chance matters. It’s unlikely Victoria is doing anything that “makes us” more likely to have outbreaks leading to lockdowns.

The butterfly effect

Even a very small difference early in a chain of events can lead to a vastly different outcome.

This might be a potential superspreader deciding to go hiking alone for the weekend, not to his Aunt’s birthday party. Or an aged care worker picking up an extra shift at a second facility. Or a man from Wollert forgetting his keys.

This is what is sometimes called the butterfly effect.

Contacting tracing was inadequate in Victoria at the start of the pandemic, but since our second wave, our contact tracing has been outstanding. Deficiencies there do not explain the frequency of our lockdowns.

https://theconversation.com/why-do-our-covid-outbreaks-always-seem-to-happen-in-melbourne-randomness-and-bad-luck-161978?fbclid=IwAR3U5I_1vlPq7iycUR6KCAEhWH_hAq0TMtPsA1uQGbAtfKxhqMzWBWNpZig

Greg Nagle

PhD Forest and watershed science

Cornell University

Hanoi, Vietnam

On Mon, Jun 21, 2021 at 5:47 PM Balazs Szalontai <aoverl@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:

Dear Greg and All,

It might be of interest to you that South Korea and Germany have experienced a similar pattern: first praised for their efficient handling of the crisis, then criticized for the slow progress of their vaccination program. If we look into the other two cases, we might find some common elements that may help to illuminate the Vietnamese case:

https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/why-south-korea-still-hasnt-vaccinated-anyone/

https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/as-vaccine-rollout-lags-south-koreans-sour-on-governments-covid-19-response/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/27/heroes-to-zeros-how-german-efficiency-wrecked-its-covid-vaccine-drive

In certain respects, it seems that one's initial success against COVFEFE-19, or some specific factors that rendered this success possible, could later produce the opposite effect, whereas the extreme gravity of the crisis could accelerate responses (as it occurred in the UK and the U.S.).

Cheers,

Balazs Szalontai (Korea University, Sejong Campus)