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From: Carl Robinson
Date: Mon, May 2, 2011 at 11:42 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Following up on recent news about the Sayaburi Dam in Laos - between Vientiane & Luang Prabang - which has been "delayed" even while construction work proceeds - let's not forget that China has forged ahead with its own plans to build 14 dams on the Upper Mekong with four now completed. (The largest of these at Xiaowan is second only to the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze and an even larger one downstream at Nuozhadu is under construction.) Water levels in the dry season are already noticeably lower all along the river and salination increasing in the Mekong Delta. Downstream in Laos and Cambodia, a dozen dams are planned. It's all happening without much public attention. With our focus more on Vietnam, it's easy to overlook what's happening along this important river -- and even ignore its possible effects on southern Vietnam which is the country's all-important rice bowl. (Up north, don't trust the Chinese too much about what might happen to the headwaters of the Red River either !)
A small group of Viet-Kieu have formed a US-based NGO called the Viet Ecology Foundation group to bring greater attention to environmental issues in Vietnam and the surrounding region.
To bring you up to date on what's happening along the Mekong today, here is a recent article from Dr Ngo The Vinh, author of Mekong, the Occulting River, which also includes suggestions for the way ahead. Sadly, the article accepts the "inevitability" of the dams and changed ecology. The question is already how are the people going to live with it? The boldest proposal -- now in pre-feasibility -- is for a "sea wall" off the Mekong Delta to stem salt intrusion.
http://www.vietecology.org/Article.aspx/Article/63#.
Please bookmark this article and link as it's a great reference for what's coming up for our beloved river.
Best regards,
Carl Robinson
Former AP Correspondent, Saigon
PS: as noted previously, Vinh is a friend from my earliest days in SVN, later an MD in the Airborne and who moved to Southern California after the war where he works as a medical doctor in the VA system. His real passion, however, is the Mekong River.
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From: Melanie Beresford
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 12:03 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
They should read Margaret Duras' Le Barrage contre la Mer. Sea walls are not a new thing. On a truly grand scale like the Dutch dykes it might work for a while. Not cheap though.
In southern Australia, they built a barrage across the mouth of the Murray River about 60 years ago. It delayed rather than halted the problems being caused by excessive water extraction upstream.
cheers,
Melanie
--
Melanie Beresford
Associate Dean Research, Associate Professor in Economics
Faculty of Business & Economics
Macquarie University, NSW 2109, Australia
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From: Michael Digregorio
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 3:30 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Dear all,
Building a sea wall around the Mekong is a bit of pipe dream that gets thrown around all the time. In HCMC, where this idea has been modeled, the result is to create a giant bath tub. Not a bad thing if one can keep the shower from running. Unfortunately, one of the expectations of CC is an increase in the intensity of storms - and for HCMC, those dikes would begin to resembles conditions we have seen in New Orleans not too long ago.
Delta regions often, though not always, have a leading edge of dunes. These were the original basis for the sea dikes in Nam Dinh and Ninh Binh, for example. Current thinking is to use these dunes, and the slightly elevated lands behind them, to create somewhat protected areas in the Mekong delta, allowing lower elevation land to flood, seasonally and over the longer term, more permanently.
Salt water intrusion is routinely controlled in surface water with barrages that allow fresh water to flow out, but prevent salt water in the tides from flowing up river. Underground, however, this tactic has no impact since the balance is between the flow of groundwater to the seas, and the push of salt water against it.
Around a quarter of the lower Mekong delta is already affected by seasonal (that is, dry season) salinization through this means.
Last year, Can Tho was affected by salt water intrusion - and it is 70 kms from the coast.
The problem was not sea level rise, but a combination of dam construction on the upper Mekong, and flood control works in the delta that reduce flooding, but also reduce the storage of flood water (in places like the plain of reeds) that formerly regulated dry season fresh water flows.
Mike
Michael DiGregorio
Consultant and Filmmaker
Hanoi, Vietnam
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From: Melanie Beresford
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 4:26 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
These are precisely the problems of the Murray River. In drought years, sea water used to intrude quite far inland, but the barrages were built when this became excessive - not because of sea level rise (non existent in the 1940s), but water extraction upstream that caused river levels to fall. When I was a kid (some decades ago), the fresh water level was above the sea water level on either side of the barrage. When I visited a year ago, the sea level was a metre higher than the fresh water and they were talking about building another barrage about 30 km upstream - which would have meant abandoning all the agricultural land between the existing barrage and the new one (after only 60 years). In this case the problem is not caused by dams, but by irrigation, draining of wetlands and so on in the upper reaches. Same result though, of reduced flow in the river.
Obviously the Mekong delta presents an even greater problem because of the sheer numbers of people who live there and make a living from agriculture. The Chinese dams and the Sayaburi dam will be a disaster and a sea wall will not save the MRD, except for a few years and at enormous expense. I expect that Cambodia will also start to dam the Mekong since they have no other sources of power to speak of.
I think the approach that takes these upstream dams as a given is the correct (if sad) one. But dykes are not the answer. Something way more creative is needed.
Melanie
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From: Kleinen, John
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 4:39 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Dear all,
The freshwater shortage in the Mekong Delta does increase during low flows of the Mekong water which allows quick salinity intrusion through open river mouths (estimated to cover an area of 15.000 and 20.000 km2). But there is a link with sea level rise while groundwater use is growing. The sediment balance of the Mekong River is, compared to other major Deltas, relatively stable. Not dikes, but the protection and enlargement of the existing extensive mangrove forests would constitute a natural shore protection.
John
John Kleinen Ph.D
Associate Professor
University of Amsterdam
Department of Anthropology and Sociology
O.Z.Achterburgwal 185
1012 DK Amsterdam
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From: Susan Hammond
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 6:42 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
The Stimson Center based in Washington, DC in cooperation with PISA will be holding a workshop on this very issue of the impact of the dams along the Mekong. The workshop “Shared River for a Shared Future: Interactive Workshop on Mekong River Development” will take place in Bangkok July 17 – 19th. They are currently requesting applications from nationals from the Mekong River countries to participate. More info is athttp://www.stimson.org/research-pages/shared-river-for-a-shared-future/. Perhaps if Linda Yarr is on the list she can tell us more about it.
Description of the workshop:
The Stimson Center's Mekong Policy Project will hold an interactive workshop in Bangkok during July 17-19, 2011, focused on current plans for building hydropower dams on the mainstream of the Lower Mekong River. The scenario-based workshop will be held with the assistance of Partnerships for International Strategies in Asia (PISA). Role playing activities will examine the interests and drivers of these proposals, the potential national and regional environmental economic impacts and consequences for regional relations, and policy alternatives that could protect the river's natural functions while also meeting the development goals and needs of the Lower Mekong countries and their citizens.
Stimson also has a video on their website (in English and Vietnamese) called Mekong Tipping Point on the likely impacts of more dams on the Mekong. http://www.stimson.org/video/mekong-tipping-point/.
Susan Hammond
Director
War Legacies Project
144 Lower Bartonsville Rd
Chester, VT 05143
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From: Bill Hayton
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 2:20 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
But saving mangrove forests would require stopping the development of deep water ports, hotel complexes and industrial parks. Something tells me short term thinking will prevail for a while...
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From: Carl Robinson
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 2:50 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Great conversation, folks, and thanks for your inputs. I'd certainly agree with Bill Hayton's latest remark about Vietnam's mangroves which, as John Kleinen points out, would be the best way to prevent shore erosion.
On two occasions over the past year, I have visited Mui Ca Mau -- or Cape Camau -- at the southernmost tip of Vietnam -- and this is a perfect example of how population pressure and the degradation of the environment come together. It's also a great example on how Vietnam does token "eco-tourism" leaving only a patch of green while demolishing everything else around. And what is there is a covered-over monstrosity of concrete and gravel walkways, a couple monuments and a couple ugly cement restaurants and viewing tower, sort of tailor-made for souvenir pictures with everyone holding up the V-sign. Here is a great opportunity for the Vietnamese to explain the value of the mangroves and allow nature to continue building out into the sea but they've blown it. Elsewhere, what was once a vast swampland of cajuput and mangroves during the war is now surprisingly heavily populated. And, if they can't grow rice, they move into aquaculture. Indeed, Ca Mau is now Vietnam's leading producer of such products with huge freezer factories around Nam Can, the last district town in southern Vietnam.
But at least the Vietnamese media is able to write about the environment without too many constraints -- well, unless some big government and commercial interests are involved. Here is a recent article from Viet Nam News about environmental degradation around Mui Ca Mau although I am a bit puzzled by the writer's talk of "rock slides." (It's all mud!) http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/Environment/210407/Ca-Mau-confronts-receding-future.html.
You see the destruction of mangroves everywhere in Vietnam today. The once massive Rung Sat south of Saigon where the shipping channel runs has been massively deforested. But here too, they've got a token eco-tourism park with crocodiles and monkeys to bring in the visitors. The list is more or less endless. Ha Tien, Rach Gia. Mangroves are seen as dispensable. Fill 'em in and build 'em up -- same way some now want to build a gigantic sea wall.
Best,
Carl Robinson
Brisbane, Australia.
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From: JKirkpatrick
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 2:57 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
I predict that the 14 dams to be built eventually will lead to gross impoverishment of millions, the ruination of good land, the destruction of various ecosystems, and eventually the silting up of the dams, already happening elsewhere around the world behind old dams.
Joanna Kirkpatrick
Vis. Anth.
Film rev. ed.
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From: JKirkpatrick
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 3:03 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Plus:
http://www.mpowernetwork.org/Major_Projects/Overview/index.html
http://www.newsmekong.org/cambodia_wave_of_dam_projects_calls_for_new_approaches
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From: Michael Digregorio
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 4:51 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
John
There are also rather strange proposals to plant mangroves all along the coast of Vietnam. Mangroves need fresh water, so that really sets the limits. But beyond that, we know that mangroves can reduce the impact of storms...there is a terrific project and case study on the Oxfam VN website. But we are not sure how they respond to SLR. Again, the limiting factor will be fresh water in the intertidal periods of the day.
Mike
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From: Michael Digregorio
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 5:00 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Carl,
A large part of the mangrove forest in Can Gio was replanted after the war. Vietnamese environmentalists complained bitterly over the construction of the deep water port there, predicting (quite accurately) that the port would not be able to contain development in the supposedly protected forest. But the WB and GoV saw the limits of Saigon's central city port and regarded the loss of mangrove as necessary. Going back to the sea dike in HCMC - that seems to have been the hard solution that was to compensate for the loss of mangrove - the softer solution. Now, modelers have shown that the dike system would not prevent flooding in HCMC, that the city itself is generating its own problems through (a) filling of ponds, (b) narrowing and sedimentation of water courses, (c) the heat island effect caused by intensive construction [which also increases the intensity of thunder storm]. There are now plans to begin work on (a) and (b), above.
Mike
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From: David Brown
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 5:47 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Hanoi decided to pump up domestic awareness, in the days before the April 22 Mekong Regional Council consultations, of what’s at stake if the Xayaburi dam is built. Presumably it calculated, correctly, that heading off the planned cascade of dams in Laos and Cambodia is a vital national interest. The annual cycle of flooding is critically important to the Mekong Delta’s fertility and thus to the livelihoods of about twenty percent of the nation’s population.
By persuading Cambodia and more remarkably, also Thailand to insist on further study of the Xayaburi scheme, Vietnamese diplomacy scored a small success at the April 22 meeting. Now Hanoi must find a way to turn a six month construction delay into agreement by Laos (and Cambodia as well) to give up plans to dam the Mekong mainstream entirely. It’s a tall order, but not impossible. The cooperation of Thailand – the prospective market for all that hydropower – is essential.
Challenging Vientiane on its cherished dam projects, the Vietnamese have signalled that they’re prepared to risk serious damage to their ‘special relationship’ with the Lao leaders. China will be happy to profit at Hanoi’s expense. Even so, now that 88 million citizens are paying careful attention, Vietnam no longer has the option of wimping out.
David Brown
retired US diplomat, occasional journalist
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From: JKirkpatrick
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 5:57 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Speaking as a conservatoinist, this is very good news.
Joanna K.
VA
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From: Walter james Mc intosh
Date: Tue, May 3, 2011 at 6:20 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
The Business Section of the Bangkok post in it's 2 May article titled : Xayaburi Still On Course : seems very confident that the project is proceeding . I would bet on the money interests over conservation concerns.
Mac McIntosh
The Lighthouse- Bluff, NZ.
Retired Intelligence Officer.
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From: Kleinen, John
Date: Wed, May 4, 2011 at 12:48 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Mike,
I know. I have seen a lot of funny and weird mangrove projects "organized" by local PC's and from NGOtype organizations which ended up with the seedlings fed to the shrimps. In principle, protection would be the best way. There is also influx of acid water from the sulphate soils in the Delta. The fresh water is threated by this drainage, by saline water and pollution of human activities (industrial activity and shipping).
There is a proposal made by among other Dutch consortia to introduce treatment plans in industrial zones to reduce overexploitation of groundwater.
Cheers,
JOHN
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From: Michael Digregorio
Date: Wed, May 4, 2011 at 12:56 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
John
Look at the video on Care's website.
http://www.careclimatechange.org/videos/vietnam
Mike
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From: Kleinen, John
Date: Wed, May 4, 2011 at 12:56 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Bill,
Of course. That takes places on nearly every inch along the shore in spite of the efforts to replant or transplant mangrove forests. The seedlings often end up in the shrimp ponds. Dutch consortia also propose the interaction of treatment plants for polluted water and the introduction of inland forests that can grow on acid soils and reduce acidity. We have to see what the GOV "Living with Floods'" Strategy for the MRD really means, but it includes also the preservation of vulnerable ecosystems.
John
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From: Kleinen, John
Date: Wed, May 4, 2011 at 1:09 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Thanks. MCD (Hanoi) did this for many years in Nam Dinh. It is moving and important, but when a district or provincial authority decided for something else, you can imagine what happened. Or, I did a become a cynic?
JK
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