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From: Jason Morgan
Date: Wed, May 30, 2012 at 3:46 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Dear list,
The item below is only for those who can read Vietnamese. It is allegedly written by a Vietnamese military spy who works for the notorious Tong Cuc 2 (Second Central Commission of Military Intelligence), based on discussion with Claire A. Pierangelo, Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy in Hanoi.
http://danlambaovn.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/anh-gia-cua-my-ve-thuc-trang-tinh-hinh.html
Before anyone might dismiss this as nonsense, let me assure you that at least it is a good read. The interesting question is how many Western diplomats and scholars really think like this "Claire" and other two Americans mentioned in the document.
Pls note that, according to Dan Lam Bao website, this is only the first part.
Regards,
Jason
AMP Capital
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From: Shawn McHale
Date: Wed, May 30, 2012 at 7:16 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Interesting document, both for the statements of the Americans, many of them not surprising, some just strange, as well as the spin put on the American document by the Vietnamese commentator.
Overall, it pains me to think that American government officials may speak so enthusiastically and without nuance. (The question, of course, is whether they did or not. The document states that "people are very discontented with the regime (che do) -- and gives as examples all the discussion of corruption, S China Sea, etc. But this begs the question --- what is the purported speaker really saying? That people grumble? That the government has a severe legitimacy problem? That it is critically weak? We get no sense.
The DCM et al are quoted as saying that the "Vietnamese hate the Chinese." Hmmm. Again, no nuance. It's a bit like saying Koreans in 2000 hated the Japanese, all the while forgetting Korean admiration for the Japanese at the same time.
The document purportedly says that "Vietnam is rapidly Americanizing." Did some American really say that? I can believe one did, but think that it is a stupid thing to say, given the multiple global inflluences on Vietnam.
One problem with this document, however, is that we get bits and pieces of the purported American document, and then a lot of interpretation. resume of what the American report said. . When you reread it, one wonders if the supposed Vietnamese spy author is spinning the source a bit too much. For example, the delegation which made the report is presented as composed of people who were trained at Johns Hopkins, and Johns Hopkins--SAIS is presented as a school that trains spies for the CIA. What other deep intelligence analysis does this office provide (rolling my eyes). All I can say is: many schools of international affairs in the United States have some students who go on to work for the CIA, but the great majority do not. This is hardly news to the Vietnamese government. It even has sent some of its own Cong An to study there.
Shawn McHale
--
Shawn McHale
Associate Professor of History
George Washington University
Washington, DC 20052 USA
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From: Benedict Kerkvliet
Date: Sat, Jun 2, 2012 at 5:52 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
A revealing aspect of the document, if indeed an authentic summary of comments by US embassy officials in Hanoi, is the passage toward the end about Claire Pierangelo's remarks on human rights. The deputy head of the embassy acknowledges, according to the document, that the US isn't particularly concerned with human rights per se when it comes to dealing with Vietnam. She noted, according to the document, that actually many other governments with human rights records worse than Vietnam's government yet the US doesn't say much about them. The US's concern with human rights issues in Vietnam, she says in this document, is but a means, a tool, to achieve other ends, among them to pressure Vietnam's government to do things in line with the US governments strategic objectives.
I've long suspected this was the case; the remarks (if authentic) by a high-ranking US diplomat, reinforce my suspicions.
Ben Kerkvliet
--
Ben Kerkvliet
Emeritus Professor
The Australian National University
Canberra, A.C.T. AUSTRALIA
and
Affiliate Graduate Faculty member
University of Hawai'i
Honolulu, Hawaii 96822
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From: Jo
Date: Sat, Jun 2, 2012 at 9:59 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
"... , to achieve other ends, among them to pressure [any] government to do
things in line with the US governments strategic objectives. ..."
Isn't this the bottom line of all US foreign relations? As of other
countries' foreign relations as well?
Joanna K.
Vis. Anthro.
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From: Jason Morgan <jmorgan288@googlemail.com>
Date: Sun, Jun 3, 2012 at 3:26 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Thanks, Ben.
I myself was struck by another alleged comment by Claire Pierangelo, at the end of the document. It said the next ten years will see a big transition and it is possible the Party will not rule anymore.
If I remember correctly, Mr. David Brown, another VSG member, said in another thread that the political situation in Vietnam is likely to be stable for now, but after 2020, all hell might break loose. In other words, in our own way, we should prepare for change. Whether that change will be good or not is another question.
Jason
AMP Capital
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From: David Marr
Date: Mon, Jun 4, 2012 at 5:53 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
This release by `Dan Lam Bao' needs to be read cautiously. The `Bao cao' mixes partial translation from English with Tong Cuc 2 reporting/commentary. It shows continuing concern of some in Party leadership about 'peaceful evolution' and the dangers of tilting away from China. Possibly it was leaked to as a shot across the bow preceding the visit by the US Defense Secretary. I'm sure the authors aimed to embarrass Pierangelo. Discounting for warped translation, the Embassy and especially the two visitors from DC do sound pretty naive.
More items are promised by `Dan Lam Bao'. Have they appeared?
David Marr
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From: phuxuan700@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Jun 4, 2012 at 6:30 PM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
So far, there are 4 items: 2 dealing with the Chinese, 2 with the Americans.
The one dated 02/02/12 on a meeting with Amcham mentioned Panetta's potential trip to VN this year.
Calvin Thai
Independent Researcher
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From: Melanie Beresford
Date: Tue, Jun 5, 2012 at 2:56 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
My question is who is the intended audience for these leaks? I don't
think it's any diplomatic secret that the US uses human rights issues
as a bargaining tool (e.g. the trading of labour standards in Cambodia
for trade concessions, to name but one recent example) as well as for
domestic consumption - to persuade Americans that US foreign policy is
indeed beneficent (a strategy that occasionally breaks down badly!).
The Vietnamese surely are already as aware of this as are US diplomats
like Pierangelo. My guess is that the leak is, as David suggests, part
of intra-Party manoeuvring - a reminder for cadres not to get too
close to the Americans and not to fall into the trap of believing
their propaganda on the benefits of liberalism.
cheers,
Melanie
--
Melanie Beresford
Associate Professor in Economics
Faculty of Business & Economics
Macquarie University, NSW 2109, Australia
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From: Jo
Date: Tue, Jun 5, 2012 at 10:27 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Hi Melanie,
Acutely insightful take, all round, on the leaks.
Cheers,
Joanna K.
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From: Rie Nakamura
Date: Wed, Jun 6, 2012 at 12:48 AM
To: Vietnam Studies Group <vsg@u.washington.edu>
Dr. Nguyen Xuan Dien at Han Nom Institute who called to sign up the
petition against Japanese government's support of construction of
nuclear reactors in Ninh Thuan province in his famous blog, and
submitted the petition to the Japanese embassy in Hanoi has been
summoned by the authority. There may be a possibility that he may be
arrested.
Please refer to BBC Vietnamese language site.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/vietnam/2012/06/120531_xuandien_investigation.shtml
R. Nakamura
--
Rie Nakamura, Ph.D.
Visiting Lecturer
College of Law, Government and International Studies
Universiti Utara Malaysia
Sintok 06010 Kedah, Malaysia
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