The Arab-Spring; Five Years Later
In 45 minutes
Houston Honors College
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
Hello
Thank you for coming today to attend my presentation, thanks also to David Wilcox who invited me to update you about the Arab-Spring, and finally thanks to my friend Jose Salazar who arranged the first two presentations here in HCC back in 2012 and 2013.
I can tell you now, unfortunately, that about 80% of what the Arab-Spring accomplished five years ago is gone, and I’m here today to tell you why.
The Middle-East has always been a target for invaders, historically because of its geographic and religious importance, and recently because of its Natural Resources, especially oil and gas.
But before starting the update, I like to take about five minutes to explain to those who didn’t attend my last two presentations here in 2012 and 2013 about what was the Arab-Spring and why it started.
Arab History at a glance
The Arabs are very proud of their history as, for more than 600 years (631-1258), they ruled over an Empire that stretched from the borders of China in the East to Spain in the West.
Their land hosted the three holly religions, a lot of old civilizations and they invented or developed several sciences to the world like medicine, physics, chemistry, astronomy, algebra, and philosophy.
In 1258, the Mongols invaded and burned down Baghdad, then the capital city of the Arab State, and put an end the Arabs self-ruling.
For the next seven hundred years, till the beginning of the 20th. Century, the Arabs were ruled by Non-Arabs, mostly by the Ottoman Empire
The Ottoman Empire lost WWI, and also lost its colonies which moved to the hands of the victors; mostly to the British and French. The Arabs were not happy as they dreamed with freedom, not with changing hands of foreign rulers.
After WWII, and after the rise of the USA and the Soviet Union as the ultimate two super powers, the British and French had to free their colonies and go home, ending the old colonial era.
The Arab masses were optimistic an era of freedom and democracy, which they never experienced before, was about to start. Unfortunately, they ended under local dictators; way more vicious than colonials
After about six decades of national leaderships in the Arab World, the leaders not only couldn’t fulfill their pledge to improve the lives of their citizens, but they also committed a lot of atrocities against them in order to stay in power
After the Soviet Union collapsed and many countries in Eastern Europe gained their freedom from dictatorship, the Arab masses asked themselves “Why not us too?”
Today, there are 22 countries in the Middle East which form what is known as the Arab world, it is almost one and a half times the size of the US. All of those countries have Arabic as the official language and the majority of its 300 million citizens follow the faith of Islam; 90% Sunnis & 10% Shiite
When the year 2011 started, most of the Arab countries were bankrupt, and the people were suffering from both economic and human rights hardship. With masses of unemployed and oppressed youth, the mood couldn’t be better for revolutions
The 5 Arab-Spring Revolutions
Tunisia
After 55 years of 2 dictatorships, on Friday December 17, 2010, an unemployed 27 years old citizen called Al-Bouazizi was prevented from selling vegetables on a cart without a license in his town of Sidi-Bozid
His cart was seized by the authority, and then he was humiliated in public and slapped by a police woman. Out of despair and shame, he committed suicide by setting himself on
The news spread real fast, and the next day, Saturday December 18, hundreds took their anger to the streets, clashing with the police and marking the beginning of the revolution
The hundreds of protesters soon became hundreds of thousands, which forced the dictator, Bin Ali, to flee the country with his wife on January 14, 2011, marking the end of the 27 day revolution
In the same year, a constitution assembly was elected and Al-Marzouki, a human rights activist, was elected a president. All signs showed that the revolution put the country on the path of democracy and freedom
Egypt
A few days after that historic event of the Tunisian revolution victory, the masses of Egypt, inspired by the Tunisians, sick and tired of about 60 years of 3 dictatorships, atrocities and injustice, started their revolution
It started in January 2011, and the dictator, Hosni Mubarak, was forced to resign after 18 days. He, later, was arrested and sentenced to prison
In 2012 a new parliament was elected, and Mohammad Morsi, an engineer who got his PHD from the USA, became the first president in Egypt’s history to ever win a free election.
Yemen
The Yemeni revolution started in February 2011, and the dictator, Ali Saleh, after surviving an assassination attempt, was also forced to resign and to give up his power to his vice president, Mansour in January 2012
The agreement was brokered by the Gulf States Assembly and let the dictator stay in Yemen in condition of not interfering in politics
A few months later, a referendum took place and Mansour kept his job as a transitional president until the next general election.
Libya
The Libyan revolution started also in February 2011, the dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, ordered his forces to crush the revolution and he was about to commit a massacre in the city of Benghazi, where the revolution started
The Security Council interfered quickly and authorized the use of force to stop him. An international coalition, mainly from USA, France and Britain, started air strikes against the forces of Gaddafi and forced them to retreat
Six months later, he was forced to flee the capital, and, in October, he was ambushed by Libyan rebels and executed on the spot
His former Justice Minister, Abdul-Jalil, who joined the revolution earlier, was elected head of the National Transitional Council which paved the way for a general election in 2012
Syria
The Syrian revolution started in March 2011, sparked by anti government gratifies written on middle school walls by children in the southern city of Daraa
The dictator, Bashar Assad, scared of what happened in the other Arab-Spring countries, vowed to use full force from the very beginning, ordered the children to be arrested and tortured
It started as demonstrations and stayed peaceful for 6 months, but it turned into a military revolution after the brutal response from the regime
Soldiers from the regular army started to split and formed the Free Syrian Army. In summer 2012, the Assad regime looked like it was very close to collapse after several military defeats.
Russia and China used the vetoes three times in the Security Council against resolutions authorizing the use of force to stop the dictator from committing more atrocities against the civilians
Also Iran, an old ally of the Assad regime, sent Iranian fighters on the ground and ordered Lebanese, Iraqi, Yemeni and Afghani Shiite militias to fight with Assad
By that time, about 40 thousands Syrian civilians lost their lives, 200 thousands disappeared with no trace, and more than 3 millions became refugees in or outside Syria
***
5 Years later
Only one of the 5 Arab-Spring Revolutions managed, so far, to put the country on the track of Freedom and Democracy, it is the Tunisian. While the other 4 had a lot of troubles; the Egyptian and the Yemeni had military counter attacks, the Libyan became a political-tribal- conflict, and the Syrian one became the worst human catastrophe in the 21st century
Before hitting the subject, I like to shed light on 6 factors which had a huge influence on what happened to the Arab-Spring later
The Muslim Brotherhood Party
Established in Egypt on 1928 by Hassan Al-Banna for the Sunni Muslims
Began as a religious grass-root movement that tried to help the poor by building schools, hospitals, shelters, orphanages and other similar facilities
Participated in the armed resistance against the British occupation
Became a political party and started to participate in congressional elections
Spread into more than 70 countries around the world including all the Arab World
After independence, the party became the Arab dictators’ worst nightmare because it fiercely opposed their atrocities and injustice, and that is why it had to go under ground in a lot of Arab countries
It is very important to clarify that the party was not part of the Arab-Spring when it started, but it joined it later after the fast victories in Tunisia and Egypt.
Because of their long time experience in the party, their members were the most organized on the ground and they managed to win the elections held after the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt
Even they today represent the Moderate Sunni Islam and oppose the Fanatics of Al-Qaida and ISIS, but I still believe that the religion and politics shouldn’t mix. No body needs a president who tells his people that he is implementing the orders of God, and that any opposition to him is an opposition to God.
The Iranian Factor
The Iranians Mullahs in Tehran are trying to rebuild their Persian Empire; the one demolished 14 centuries ago
This is not a joke, as any one who listens to their statements and sees their aggressions towards their neighbors will have no doubt that they still live the dream of the that Empire which once stretched west to the Black See and North Africa
The Iranians follow the Shiite Islam which makes about 10% of all the Muslims around the world, and Iran is using the Shiite minorities in the Arab World in order to interfere
The Iraqi Factor
Iraq, religiously and ethnically is different from all other Arab countries; it has a majority of 50% Arab Shiite Muslims, 30% Arab Sunni Muslims, 15% Kurds (Non-Arab) Sunni Muslims, and 5% others
After the USA invasion of Iraq in 2003, the power moved from the hand of the Arab Sunnis to Arab Shiites. Iran helped calming down the public anger against the invasion and the USA helped giving Iran the upper hand
After the USA withdrew in 2011, Iraq became an unofficial Iranian territory, and the Iraqi puppet government started implementing Iran’s policy, especially in fighting the Arab-Spring Revolutions
The Russian Factor
The Russia we see today is what was left from the old Soviet Union; the country president Reagan once called “The Evil Empire”. The evil still rules there, but with a new face
Putin is the product of that Empire, and he is obviously trying to rebuild it again. Russia was and still is the main arms supplier of Assad, who in return, let the Russians have military bases in Syria; on land and sea
The Russians lost a major Arab ally lately, Kaddafi of Libya, and lost another one 10 years ago, Saddam Husain of Iraq. It looks and sounds like they will not give up Assad easily as he is the last Arab dictator they can call an ally in the Middle-East
The Israeli Factor
Israel is the only Non-Arab nation in the middle of the Arab-World
It was established in 1948 with help of the British-Mandate of Palestine
In 1967, Israel also occupied the Syrian Golan Heights and the Palestinian West Bank
Israel prefers to have dictators in its neighborhood as it is easier to make deals with them than with elected governments
Israel's Favorite Arab Dictator of All Is Assad (Israeli Newspaper)
Both, Assad senior and Assad junior, advocated resistance against Israel. This slogan was hollow, serving the regime merely as an insurance policy against any demand for freedom and democracy.
The Saudi-Turkey Factor
Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Sunni Muslim World, had to unite with Turkey, the most powerful Sunni Muslim country, to confront the expanding of the Shiite Iran in the Middle-East, threatening both of them
Iran is the historic enemy of Arabia and Turkey, and that is why they are looking into the Iranian role in Syria, Iraq and Yemen as a threat to their national security, especially after Iran united militarily in Syria with Russia, another historic enemy of Arabia and Turkey.
The ISIS Factor
The Fanatic Islamists, Sunnis or Shiites, have always dreamed about re-establishing the State of the Caliphate. ISIS, Islamic State of Iraq and Sham, (Sham is another name of Levant) started as an affiliate of Al-Qaida, both Sunnis, but left it in 2014 and decided to be an independent organization
ISIS controls now about 40% of Syria and 25% of Iraq. Before the organization existed, its leaders were jailed in Iraq, Syria and Iran. After they were released by these regimes, they established the terrorist group and started attacking the forces fighting or opposing the Syrian regime, giving Assad and his allies a hand in putting down the Revolution
All acts on the ground prove that ISIS is supervised and helped by the Iranian and Syrian regimes to shift the world attention from the war crimes these regimes are committing against the Syrian people.
The Arab-Sprig, 5 years later
Let’s keep in mind that each country of the Arab-Spring is different from the others, and that affected them in different way
Tunisia
What is different about Tunisia is that it is the most one influenced by the European culture, the French in particular; that made its revolution the less bloody among the others, but also dictated the future of it
The Islamists of Al-Nahada Movement, the Tunisian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood Party, (Al-Nahda means Renaissance), managed to win the general election held soon after the revolution was over in 2011
After three years of ruling, they couldn’t fulfill the promises they made to the people
In the 2014, the secular opposition party won the congressional election, but without enough votes to form a government, so it had to join the Islamists to form a National Unity government which is still in charge today in 2016
The Tunisian Islamists should be given a credit for accepting the political defeat and agreeing to share power with the seculars; they put Tunisia first
The funny thing here is that the secular man who became president in 2014, Baji Al-Sabssi, use to be a major part of the dictatorship. Analysts are saying that the old regime made a come-back, but through the ballots boxes.
Egypt
What is different about Egypt is that it has the biggest military, not only among the Arab-Spring countries, but also in the Arab World. That army had the upper hand in Egypt for the last 6 decades and was not ready to give up
As what happened in Tunisia, the Muslim Brothers won the congressional election and their candidate, Dr. Muhammad Mursi, won the presidential election, but with a very narrow margin
The Muslim Brothers of Egypt were not as wise as the Tunisians, as they started to practice unpopular local and regional policies. These policies made millions of the Egyptians unhappy and made it easy for members of the old regime to reunite and start a counter attack against the Islamic government
Some of these policies also caused anger among neighbors like Israel and some Arab allies like the Gulf States who are major financial supporters of Egypt
In July 3, 2013, and after a series of huge demonstrations against the government, the defense minister, General Al-Sissy, led a military coup, committed massacres, put Mursi, his ministers and the party leaders in jail; the almost 100 year old party was outlawed
A lot of the free world countries, including the USA, condemned the coup as a set-back to democracy. But countries like Russia, Israel and the Gulf States welcomed the coup and vowed to support it
Soon after, a dictatorship style presidential election was held and General Al-Sissy, won with a land slide of 97%, as expected
Then, by freeing the old dictator, Mubarak, and his aids from jail, the counter attack against the revolution could claim full victory and the dreams of Freedom and Dignity had to wait; Egypt was back to dictatorship
Yemen
What is different about Yemen is that it is a tribal country and that it has a strategic geographical location on the Mandeb Strait that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden
The defeated dictator, Saleh, who was allowed to stay in Yemen in condition of quitting politics, started to plan a counter attack against the revolution and his successor, Mansour
Saleh made alliance with his old enemy, the Huothis Group; it is a Yemeni minority whose members consider themselves part of the Shiite sect. They live in North West Yemen, always fought for independence and supported and armed by Iran. This group is the Yemeni copy of the Lebanese Shiite Party of God which is supported by Iran to control Lebanon
The Houthis, in alliance with the removed dictator, and supported and armed by Iran, launched a military campaign and occupied the capital Sanaa in 2014. The legitimate president and his ministers moved to neighboring Saudi Arabia and vowed to fight back
The Iranians celebrated their control over the 4th Arab capital, after Beirut of Lebanon, Baghdad of Iraq, and Damascus of Syria; they said it in open that their Persian Empire is coming back
Saudi Arabia, worried about the Iranian influence coming closer to its border, formed a military alliance including the Yemeni army loyal to the legitimate president, started in March 2015 a campaign against the Houthies and the removed dictator
Libya
What is different here is that Libya is the oil-richest one among those of the Arab-Spring countries, and that made it a trophy to whoever controls it
The Islamists participated in the general election, but failed to win
Some factions who participated in the armed revolution against Gaddafi refused to give away their weapons after the fall of the dictator, and that caused a lot of disorder
Fanatic Islamists, like ISIS and others, took advantage of that and infiltrated into the country to have a piece of the Oil-trophy. In 2012, the American Consulate in Bengasi was attacked and the American Ambassador was killed
A runaway general, Khalifa Hafter, who joined the Libyan opposition in exile against Gaddafi during the eighties, came back to Libya in 2011 to fight with the rebels. He rejoined the Libyan army and became its chief of staff
He started a military campaign in 2014 to control the capital and promising to restore law and order and to defeat of the terrorists. The problem about him is that he is supported by the Egyptian dictator, Al-Sissi, who put an end to the short era of democracy in his country
Syria
What is different about it is that its regime, unlike the others, is a double player. While Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen were western allies, Libya was a Russian ally, the Assad regime was and is still both
In open, it was an Eastern ally that purchased its weapon from Russia and gave it military basis in Syria. It also made alliance with Iran, which poses great threats to the Arab World. On the other hand, even it claims to be the leader of the resistance and struggle against Israel and it promises to liberate the Syrian Golan Heights, still occupied by Israel since 1967, but in fact, all what it does is mere talking; that is why this regime is also fevered by Israel and its Western allies
Because the regime was about to collapse in 2013, it launched a chemical attack against the rebels to stop their advance
Soon after, the Iranian had to interfere openly to defend the Assad regime by delivering Shiite militias from Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and also Iran to Syria
Worried about the Iranian interference to help Assad, and pressured by the masses of the Syrian refugees fleeing into it, Turkey, the Northern neighbor, started openly to support the rebels against Assad
Soon after, in 2014, ISIS and other fanatic factions appeared out of no where. ISIS started to take huge territories gained earlier by the Syrian rebels from Assad in the North East, also took huge territories in North East Iraq
Assad was happy because ISIS was doing his job by fighting his real enemy, but also because ISIS was shifting the attention of the world from his genocide against his people into the issue of fighting terrorism
In October 31, 2015, ISIS claims responsibility of downing a Russian civilian airplane over Egypt
In October 2015, after all the Iranian efforts failed to put down the Syrian revolution, and after Obama made clear he was not intended to do any thing, the Putin regime got involved and started an air strike campaign to help Assad army and its Shiite militias allies to advance on the ground
Turkey, soon after, shot down a Russian war plane after entering its air space; the incident created tension as Turkey is also a NATO member and Russia started supporting communist Kurd rebels fighting against Turkey
Turkey and Saudi Arabia, after giving up that Obama will do something to help stopping the Iranian-Russian aggression in Syria, which poses a threat to their national security, decided to form a military alliance with other countries to confront that threat
By the beginning of 2016, the Security Council, with the help of the USA and Russia, managed to impose a cease fire and bring the Assad regime and the opposition to the negotiating table in Geneva. In March, Putin claimed he was withdrawing most of his forces from Syria to give peace a chance; he was bluffing. In the same month, the regime and ISIS orchestrated the “liberation” of Palmira to give Assad a stronger position in the negotiations.
By now, and because of the lack of world leadership which could stand firm to stop the worst calamity of the 21 century, 1/3 million Syrian civilians lost their lives, ¼ million were arrested and disappeared, 12 millions became refuges inside and outside Syria, ½ of the country infrastructure was demolished
Conclusion: Due to human nature, every time and any where there is injustice, a Revolution will start any time. There nothing personal about it, but it is about restoring justice. When Spartacus rebelled against the Roman Empire, it was not because he didn’t like Caesar, but to take Freedom. George Washington didn’t lead the Revolution because he hated the King and Queen of Britain, but to accomplish independence. Abraham Lincoln didn’t send the army to South because of the Confederate Jefferson Davis, but to stop the slavery and save the Union. We hear a lot of arguments today about getting rid of the Dictators to bring back Peace to the Middle-East. That is wrong, in order to accomplish that goal, the Dictatorship Regimes have to be changed, not just a single person.
***
Lecture by Tarif Youssef-Agha
An Expatriate Arab Syrian Writer & Poet
Member of the ‘Syrian Revolutionary Writers Assembly’
Houston, Texas
Was given in HCC, central campus, room # 112 SJAC
Wednesday April 13, 2016
http://sites.google.com/site/tarifspoetry