Israel-Líbano
Israel-Líbano e Israel-Siria en las resoluciones de NNUU
Artículos analíticos
If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizballah and Its Allies (Jeffrey White, September 2010, TWINEP)
The next war on Israel's northern border will bear little resemblance to the 2006 confrontation between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hizballah in Lebanon. This conflict is likely to be broader and much more intense, certainly Israel's most serious since 1973, with the potential to transform the wider region both militarily and politically.
In this new Washington Institute Policy Focus, Jeffrey White offers not a prediction of war, but rather an estimation of what renewed hostilities between Israel and Hizballah might look like. In a meticulously calculated forecast of the future battlefield -- supplemented by original maps and graphics -- White outlines the capabilities and operational objectives of the two sides, the potentially game-changing roles played by Syria and Iran, and the possible impact on the region's postconflict military and political environments.
White concludes that this is the war the IDF must win. For the losers -- and for the region -- the consequences may be fateful, and Washington should be developing its own concrete plans and preparatory steps now
A Victory for Islamism? The Second Lebanon War and Its Repercussions (Magnus Norell, November 2009, TWINEP)
The bloody "first war" between Israel and Lebanon in 1982 rooted out the destabilizing presence of the PLO, but left Hizballah, the Iranian-backed "Party of God," in control of southern Lebanon. The "second war" involving Israeli forces on Lebanese soil took place in summer 2006 in response to a violent campaign of Hizballah rocket attacks on northern Israeli communities and a cross-border Hizballah ambush of Israeli soldiers along the Lebanese border. Despite an eventual UN-brokered ceasefire calling for the organization's disarmament, Hizballah continues to insist that the outcome of the 2006 conflict represents a clear victory for "resistance" as a strategic option for Islamists in their dealings with Israel and the West.
In A Victory for Islamism? The Second Lebanon War and Its Repercussions, a translation from the original Swedish, former Swedish intelligence analyst Magnus Norell argues that although Hizballah's strong position in Lebanese society keeps the bilateral conflict with Israel alive, the perception of strength and success in battle provides Hizballah with much broader reach and regional influence. Indeed today, the growing belief of Islamists that Israel can be defeated on the battlefield and forced to make political and territorial concessions has a devastating impact on current peace initiatives by the Obama administration and will continue to frustrate attempts at a negotiated solution.
Norell, who was once responsible for creating a diplomatic backchannel between Israel and Hizballah, warns that given the number of other tensions fragmenting the Middle East today -- between Sunnis and Shiites, Arabs and Israelis, Islamists and moderates, and Lebanon's own sectarian communities -- the region is in danger of a new series of armed conflagrations and small-scale wars fed by the triumphalism of militant Islam.
Read also the author's op-ed on Foreign Policy.com