Transporte Maritimo 2014

Maritime transport review 2014

Introduction

80 per cent of global merchandise trade by volume is carried by sea and handled by ports worldwide. The trade competitiveness of all countries – developed and developing alike, and including landlocked countries – depends heavily on effective access to international shipping services and port networks.

The 2014 edition of the Review of Maritime Transport[i] estimates global seaborne trade to have increased by 4.3 per cent, with the total reaching over 9 billion tons in 2012 for the first time ever.

Driven in particular by growing domestic demand in China and increased intra-Asian and South–South trade, seaborne trade nevertheless remains subject to persistent downside risks facing the world economy and trade. Freight rates have remained low and volatile in the various market segments (container, liquid and dry bulk).

Maritime transport is facing a new and complex environment that involves both challenges and opportunities.

Of all the prevailing challenges, however, the interconnected issues of energy security and costs, climate change, and environmental sustainability are perhaps the most unsettling. Climate change in particular continues to rank high on the international policy agenda, including that of shipping and port businesses.

Turning to the opportunities, these include – to name but a few – deeper regional integration and South–South cooperation; growing diversification of sources of supply; and access to new markets, facilitated by cooperation agreements and by improved transport networks (for example the Panama Canal expansion).

In view of recent research that suggests that containerization has been a stronger driver of globalization than trade liberalization has.

The special chapter on “Landlocked countries and maritime transport” provides an overview of recent progress made in understanding impediments to accessing sea-shipping services, for the trade of goods between landlocked territories and overseas markets.

The Review proposes a new paradigm for transit based on a conveyor-belt concept, which aims at achieving a continuous supply of transit transport services, supported by institutional frameworks and infrastructure. The argument proposed here is that a regular, reliable and secure transit system is the simple, straightforward goal to pursue in order to guarantee access for landlocked developing countries to global shipping networks on the basis of non-penalizing conditions. Given the review of the Almaty Programme of Action that is to take place in 2014, this proposal could be part of the actions within a new agenda for landlocked and transit developing countries.

International seaborne trade grows in 2012, but remains vulnerable to downside risks facing the world economy.

During the year, growth in world gross domestic product decelerated to 2.2 percent from 2.8 per cent recorded in 2011. In tandem, and reflecting a simultaneous drop in import demand of both developed and developing economies, the growth of global merchandise trade volumes also decelerated to 1.8 per cent year-on-year.

The knock-on effects of the problems in the European Union on developing economies are tangible, while the slowdown in larger developing countries, notably China and India, is resonating in other developing regions and low-income countries. Meanwhile, and driven in particular by a rise in China’s domestic demand as well as increased intra-Asian and South–South trade, international seaborne trade performed relatively well, with volumes increasing by 4.3 per cent during the year. The performance of international seaborne trade remains, nevertheless, vulnerable to downside risks as well as the uncertainty affecting the world economy and trade. It is also unfolding against a background of an operating landscape for maritime transport that is evolving and that entails some potentially game-changing trends and developments.

Evolving trends affecting international shipping and seaborne trade

(a) Continued negative effect of the 2008/2009 crisis on global demand, finance and trade

(b) Structural shifts in global production patterns

(c) Changes in comparative advantages and mineral resource endowments, in particular oil and gas

(d) Rise of the South and shift of economic influence away from traditional centres of growth

(e) Demographics, with ageing populations in advanced economies and fast-growing populations in developing regions and with related implications for global production and consumption patterns

(f) Arrival of container megaships and other transport-related technological advances

(g) Climate change and natural hazards

(h) Energy costs and environmental sustainability

In this context, a number of challenges and opportunities with implications for international seaborne trade are also arising.

(a) Deeper regional integration and South–South cooperation

(b) Growing diversification of sources of supply enabled by technology and efficient transportation

(c) Emergence of new trading partners and access to new markets facilitated by growing trade and cooperation agreements

(d) Expansion/opening of new sea routes (for example, expansion of the Panama Canal and Arctic routes)

(e) Increasing involvement of other developing economies, notably in Africa and South-East Asia, in lower added value and labour-intensive sectors as China moves up the value chain and rebalances towards higher value added sectors

(f) Growth in global demand induced by a growing world population and a rise in the middle class/consuming category

(g) Emergence of developing-country banks (for example, the proposed BRICS bank – Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa) with the potential to raise funding to meet the significant needs for investment in transport infrastructure

World fleet, the year 2012 saw the turn of the largest shipbuilding cycle in recorded history.

The world fleet has more than doubled since 2001, reaching 1.63 billion deadweight tons in January 2013. The tonnage on order as of January 2013 is the equivalent of just 20 per cent of the fleet in service.

Since the historical peaks of 2008 and 2009, the tonnage on order for all major vessel types has decreased drastically. As shipyards continued to deliver pre-ordered tonnage, the order books went down by 50 per cent for container ships, 58 per cent for dry-bulk carriers, 65 per cent for tankers and by 67 per cent for general-cargo ships. At the end of 2008, the dry-bulk order book was equivalent to almost 80 per cent of the fleet at that time, while the tonnage on order as of January 2013 is the equivalent of just 20 per cent of the fleet in service.

Larger ships and fewer container carriers

The last 10 years have seen two important trends, which represent two sides of the same coin. On the one hand, ships have become bigger, and on the other hand the number of companies in most markets has diminished. As regards the number of companies, the average per country has decreased by 27 per cent during the last 10 years, from 22 in 2004 to just 16 in 2013. This trend has important implications for the level of competition, especially for smaller trading nations. While an average of 16 service providers may still be sufficient to ensure a functioning competitive market with many choices for shippers for the average country, on given individual routes, especially those serving smaller developing countries, the decline in competition has led to oligopolistic markets.

Freight rates remained suppressed by oversupply of newbuildings

In 2012, the maritime sector continued to experience low and volatile freight rates in its various segments because of surplus capacity in the global fleet generated by the severe downturn in trade in the wake of the 2008 economic and financial crisis. The steady delivery of newbuildings into an already oversupplied market, coupled with a weak economy, has kept rates under heavy pressure.

The overall low freight rates observed in 2012 reduced carriers’ earnings close to, and even below operating costs, especially when bunker oil prices remained both high and volatile. As a result, carriers tried to apply various strategies to remedy the situation, in particular by reducing bunker consumption. The trend of maximizing fleet efficiency, slow steaming, postponing newbuilding deliveries, scrapping and idling some ships observed in 2011 persisted in 2012.

In this difficult shipping context, many private equity funds have seized the opportunity created by tight credit markets and historically low vessel values to invest in ships and shipping companies. Between 2011 and 2012, private equity funds financed no less than 22 shipping transactions with an aggregate magnitude of more than $6.4 billion.

The role of private equity funds appears fundamental for the growth of the sector and could affect its development in several ways, including through the consolidation and vertical integration of transport services.

World container port throughput surpassed 600 million 20-foot equivalent units in 2012

World container port throughput increased by an estimated 3.8 per cent to 601.8 million 20-foot equivalent units in 2012. This increase was lower than the estimated 7.3 per cent increase of 2011. This growth is also reflected in a strong port finance sector as investors look to infrastructure to provide long-term stable returns. This is paramount as a recent study forecast that developing countries will need annual investment of $18.8 trillion in real terms by 2020 to achieve even moderate levels of economic growth.

Investments within ports will lead to increases in efficiency which could help to lower transport costs by enabling goods to get to and from markets in a more timely and cost-effective manner. Recognizing the role of ports in reducing a country’s transport costs and working on the back of numerous mandates (Accra Accord paragraphs 57, 121, 165, 166 and Doha Mandate paragraphs 45, 47 and 48) from its member countries, UNCTAD has a long history of working on port reform in developing countries. Whereas previously much focus was given to helping ports identify efficiency indicators to measure and record, the next logical step is for countries to share their data to identify lessons learned and best practices.

Yet, despite all the activity on record keeping, it is rare that the information is published at a port or national level, let alone on a global basis. However, external pressure to publish data came in 2013 when a leading journal printed its ranking of container ports using data obtained from liner operators. Thus efforts to assess port performance by port customers are leading towards an era of increased transparency in port operations which could spur greater interport competition, increased port performance and lower transport costs.

Mexico API Ports available information

API Dos Bocas, Tabasco, Mexico.

The Port of Dos Bocas calls an average of 6,000 ships off all types handling 1 million tons of cargo per year.

See more at: http://www.puertodosbocas.com.mx/about-the-port#sthash.FuYpmA3O.dpuf

There are 16 API (Integral Port Administration) ports managed by the Federal Government. A recent port available information in webpage survey was conducted by EGMCosnult.com

2014 Mexicos's port available information, Ports identify efficiency indicators

Vessel groupings used in the Review of Maritime, Transport Review Group Constituent Ship Types

Approximate vessel-size groups referred to in the Review of Maritime Transport, according to generally used shipping terminology

[i] The Review of Maritime Transport 2013 covers data and events from January 2012 until June 2013.

Where possible, every effort has been made to reflect more recent developments.