chapter 562

June 29, 2020

Covid Update

statistics don't lie but liars use statistics

Three months ago the math modelers projected we would have 80,000 deaths in the US by today's date (6/29/2020). It seemed unfathomable at the time projecting such a large increase in numbers with just 4,000 deaths at that time. Having been a water quality math modeler at ENCON I knew projections could be vastly wrong depending on so many factors. But I'm surprised how accurate the modeling was considering all the uncertainty. We are at 120,000 deaths now exceeding the 'projected mean' but well within the range predicted then of 40,000 to 150,000. I superimposed the graph from Ch 552 three months ago over John Hopkin University's current covid data .

I grabbed some of their data today just to see how some of my contacts counties compare now. The top number is probably the most relevant to your overall chances of having contracted covid. Of course future projections depend on whether your cases are receding or increasing.

In Saratoga County the confirmed cases per 100K population rate is 238 verses 51 in Flathead, Montana. It's an oversimplification, but a good relative comparison to say that in other words I would have been about 5 times more likely to contract covid than Gini. The death rate per population per confirmed case would be about the same between Montana and upstate NY (2x5=10 similar to 14).

There are so many variables, twists and turns in this thing but one thing is for sure- we all gonna die, sometime. Enjoy as much as you can while you can (but don't be stupid about it as Ma would say).

If you must work from home try to enjoy the moment. All things will pass. Just like a miracle it will just drift away and be gone.

Add some play time to your routine, it can be relaxing.

We went to our favorite Cracker Barrel Restaurant during phase 3 or whatever restart condition it was. We were the very first ever to have a table outside for breakfast. It was really more delightful than being inside on this pleasant morning.

Had to baby sit Cleopatra I call her Cleo during Son's house move. She was very good, but curious about all the new surroundings. She took several chomps out of the Palm Tree plant (as she describes here) I had brought back from Florida. Maybe it will survive, not the end of the world.