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Who do you think is more electable: DeSantis or Haley?
Who do you think is more electable: DeSantis or Haley?
DeSantis, by a Country Mile.
Haley is functionally Romney 2012 2.0, brings the suburbs “back” to slightly under 2016* but craters with Latinos & the WWC due to suburban Republicans being poison there.
*reversion may vary
DeSantis (so long as Trump doesn’t Nuke him) is generally inoffensive to most of the GOP & would have Trends at his back allowing him to hold by the nature of being an R most Trump 2020 states.
He probably gets a less suburban Trump 2016 coalition with the >1% Biden states starting as a Tossup & PA as Tilt D. IMO the suburban trend + Incumbency advantage probably in the end allows Biden* to hold at least most(won’t predict which since this is just broad strokes), and claim re-election but it’s not a lock by any stretch. *only Biden
so what do you think Biden V RDS 2024 would look like?
so what do you think Biden V RDS 2024 would look like?
Redder Florida, RDS overperfomes in the rust belt(sans NEPA) & Does as well/ slightly worse than a Generic Republican in the sunbelt/Suburbs
WI: D+1-R+1, OH: R+6-12 most likely(depends on how much Brown can carry Biden if at all TBH), IA: R+8-12+, NC: D+1-R+3
AZ: D+2-R+2, TX: R+2-R+5
like What is the popular vote?
like What is the popular vote?
D+2-6
D+30% CA & R+3 TX makes it hard(not impossible but *very* difficult) to break out of that.
Also RDS can still win the EC with a Biden 6% PV win I think one of the 2024 not maps have showed it, but even if it didn’t I think it’s plausible
^with Biden Shift everything right by 3% with Kamala
Both Kamala 2024 & 2028 would be in a bad spot though IMO*
*unless Biden died in office in 2023/4 then she’d have a “mourning president effect” eg Kennedy 1963
What's % chance do you think that?
What's % chance do you think that?
A) Biden runs in 2024
A) Biden runs in 2024
B) Trump runs in 2024
B) Trump runs in 2024
a)90%*
b)55% Yes / 45% no
*if Trump runs Biden WILL Run
Reminder I Don’t want Trump to run
Do you think Trump would have a shot of beating an incumbent Biden?
Do you think Trump would have a shot of beating an incumbent Biden?
Not really, best he could do is squeeze some more out of the rurals, at the expense of Biden squeezing a lot out of the Suburbs
Trump would do significantly Worse the suburbs, so much so that I struggle to see him wining states he lost this time by more than a Point + GA
So why do you not want trump to run?
So why do you not want trump to run?
Senate, Trump's Turnout effect makes it Exponentially more difficult to even have the chance of holding Ohio+MT(in comparison with *Every* GOP candidate)(should Dems gain 2+ in 2022 this is moot, but I still don't want to chance it)
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