Jon Tester Statewide Electoral History

To begin, we should first take a look at Tester's 2006 Primary victory, One of the few Rural Democrat's In MT's Legislature at this period Tester became the Senate President when the Dems recaptured the Chamber in 2004.

This and the reveal of an affair by then Two term Dem State Auditor John Morrison in a race to be dominated by then GOP Sen. Conrad Burn's ethics gave Tester enough wiggle room to rebuf Morrison's electibility case, and despite being outspent 2-1 allowed Tester to win in an Upset

This primary saw Jon Tester Performing best in the Great Falls area(where he lives) and Misoula Montana and Worst in the Southeast and Butte areas.

Next we take a look at the 2006 Senate election from Montana, Sen. Conrad Burns, up to that point the only GOP Senator Montana reelected was faicing a tough Reelection.

Despite the fact that Montana Heavilly backed George W. Bush naught but 2 years before Burns had been caught in a Corruption scandal where he was connected to Disgrased & Later Convicted Lobyist Jack Abramoff. This, in addition to a Gaff Prone Style of campaigning weakened Burns.

Once More Despite being outspent 2-1, being called too Liberal for montana, and being linked to "Radical Environmentalists" , Tester, with his signature Flat Top Haircut was able to eke out a 3,562 vote victory against senator Burns.

Tester Knew that his 2012 Race would be dificult even before Montana's At-Large Congressman Denny Rehberg got in the race, A strong Candidate who held Max Bauchus to his closest race ever in 1996 he would pose a dificult challenge for Tester's Reelection.

With UVA's own Larry Sabato even saying in May of 2012 that it was "The seat currently rated as a toss up that is likeliest to change hands"(Source)

Rehberg relied on a Few techniques to try and capture this seat, The first was to attack Tester on Corruption (Tester had been a large recipient of Money from banks and lobbyists) the second was to tie him to the then unpopular ACA, and the third was to brand Tester as a liberal.

Tester Responded by sowing doubt in the minds of Montanan's on Rehberg's support for medicare in addition to a large get out the vote effort Lead by Women's Groups, Unions, and other Tester allies.

This Proved Effective and despite the challenge, Tester won with 48.6% of the Vote to Rehberg's 44.6% with Libertarian Dan Cox taking 6.6% of the Vote

In the only of of Tester's Statewide contests where he was favored, Tester did what he does and Refused to sleep on this race Knowing that regardles of midterm trends it would be competitive.

Furthermore, Tester was helped by the fact that Trump picked who was seen as the Republican's Best chance of capturing this seat, Rep. Ryan Zinke, to be secretary of the interior, and the Fact that republicans were unable to Recruit AG Tim Fox.

This allowed for State Auditor Matthew M. Rosendale to emerge from the field, Rosendale, who moved to Montana in 2000 tried to brand himself as a rancher, a job he never performed. Another thing that Aided Tester was the fact that Rosendale was an Out of State Developer who are louthed by Native Montanans.

However, despite these flaws Rosendale Had one huge asset, Donald Trump. Tester during Trump's first term had been an anoyande to the president, Blocking Ronny Jackson's nomination to the VA, voting against Trump's Nominees and voting against reopening the government

This led to Trump making it what was efectively a personal mission to Destroy Tester's Reelection chances, Campaigning with Rosendale as much as he could. However, it was not to be and Tester won with a majority of the vote 50.3%-46.8%, the first time he did so Statewide

Taking a Look at where Tester inproved in each election, We can see in the 2006-2012 Shift that he improved Basically Everywhere.

With his Best improvements comming from North Central Montana(Cascade, Meagher Judith Basin, Blaine), Silver Bow(Butte) & Gallatin(Bozeman), allong with Fallon County and the southeast

(On a side note: Winning Yellowstone is one of his best achievements on Tester's 2012 map).

In the 2012-2018 Tester inproved most in the Growing areas of Urban/Suburban Western Montana While severely loosing ground in the rest of the state, Loosing the least in his Stomping grounds of in and around Choteau County

Next, Comparing Tester's First win in 2006 to 2018 we find a similar story to the swing between 2012-2018, but without as pronounced an East/west Divide.

Furthermore, we find that despite losing ground in rural areas, he in essence was able to maintain similar amounts of support to 2006 in his home county of Chouteau and the northwest of MT, In addition to the observation that his coalition became more Urban/Suburban in 2018

In addition to that we see that while Tester lost ground in Native areas as compared to 2012, he was still able to slightly increase support from natives as compared to 2006,

& the fact that he was able to hold his ground a bit in the populous Yellowstone county as compared to 2006 Despite losing some support

In short, the Main Constant in Tester's Elections has been Difficulty, in his first primary and first two senate contests he was the underdog, and in his third Senate contest he was the most heavily targeted Dem to win, but his ability to win despite the long odds shows the impressiveness of Tester's Statewide wins.

Lastly, Whether or not Tester goes for, or wins another term in 2024 is an open question, but one thing is certain, his work as one of Montana's Senators and his impressive wins are something to be remembered.