In an attempt to determine the weight of the vote in each of Puerto Rico’s 78 municipios the utilizing of the County Power Index is a tool most invaluable to determine where all the votes came from in this election.
Taking a look at the percentage of total votes cast per municipio in the 2020 gubernatorial election we find that the San Juan Metro as it’s commonly defined cast 28.71% of the vote in the 2020 Puerto Rican gubernatorial election.
The strong concentration of Puerto Rico’s votes in these 8 Municipios helps to showcase, as seen below, why third parties were able to do well in PR in 2020. As for the most part, while their votes were concentrated in the Metro(s), that’s where most of the voters in Puerto Rico are.
Taking a look at where then PNP gubernatorial nominee Pedro Pierluisi got his votes, we find that he was reliant on all the island, in a manner roughly proportionate to (though slightly more rural than) the population.
This showcases Pierluisi's broad coalition where he held up decently well with rural and exurban voters, whilst not collapsing with urban/suburban voters.
Next, taking a look at PPD nominee Charlie Delgado’s coalition, we find that, in contrast to prior years for the PPD, it’s significantly more rural, having only 7% of his vote from San Juan proper(whereas it casts to the 9% of the vote), with a similar effect in the whole Metro.
This reflects Charlie’s collapse in the urban areas, where he relied on the rest of the Island to unsuccessfully make up the difference, leading to his loss to Pedro Pierluisi.
Looking at MVC founder Alexandra Lúgaro’s coalition, we find that it’s more Urban/Exurban than the Puerto Rico average. Relying mostly on the San Juan, Caguas, Mayagüez and Ponce metros for votes, while having a decent percentage of votes from the Aguadilla and Vega Baja metros.
Analyzing the PIP’s Performance, Senator Juan Dalmau was the most reliant out of any of the candidates on urban areas, having a larger share of their votes than the MVC coming out of Metro San Juan, and Caguas Metro, whilst not postulating as strong a showing in the outer metros, when compared to MVC.
Lastly, taking a look at the performance of the PD candidate, César Vázquez Muñiz, we find that he took a large percentage of his votes from Arecibo, Aguadilla, as well as Humacao and the surrounding Exhurbs/rurals for the three localities.
Furthermore, it's interesting to note that while Vázquez was also the the candidate that took the least percentage of his vote from San Juan proper, he still received 27% of his total votes from the San Juan Metro area (As compared to the 29% it cast in the 2020 election).