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The 2020 Senate election in the Second Senate Districts of Bayamón, a contest between Senate Incumbents Carmelo Ríos & Migdalia Padilla agsinst a slew of party activists in this longtime PNP District resulted in a near 15% win in the only secure Senate District in Puerto Rico.
Other than Toa Alta, Southern Bayamón and Toa Baja the remaining 3/5ths of the District are safe PNP on every level, with Cataño and the upper half of Guaynabo tending to vote for the PNP by upwards of 20%.
To this effect, the regular partisan leanings tended to show up throughout the district, with the PNP winning a crushing victory throughout.
Now, I highlight this seat because in 2024 two major challengers are coming for Ríos and Padilla, César Vazquez Muñiz (Founder and President for the Proyecto Dignidad) and Jose Bernardo Marquez (At Large Representative for the MVC).
Both face a steep uphill climb as they are both members of minor parties - and despite the "Alianza País" performing well here the deep PNP lean of this seat will present a steep hill to climb for Jose Bernardo & César Vazquez
Further, with Regards to The current Alianza, the MVC+PIP took a combined 33.33%, a large 7.46% off of the PNP's 40.79% in 2020, alongside the support by Popular Toa Baja mayor Bernardo Márquez García of his son José Bernardo Márquez the MVC has a chance to knock off one of the PNP's seats in this election.
The most likely senator to be knocked off is longtime Senator Migdalia Padilla, whom has repeatedly underperformed ticketmate Carmelo Ríos and is currently facing a primary challenge spearheaded by Senate PNP leader Thomas Rivera Schatz for not being aligned with him politically.
It should be noted that despite this chance, Governor Pedro Pierluisi won this seat by 1.28% over the combined (MVC) Alexandra Lugaro and (PIP) Juan Dalmau vote in 2020. As such, even with the underlying vote splitting coming from (PD) César Vazquez taking half of the PNP's vote (as this is a 2 member seat)
The district is still a strong one for the PNP, necessitating Bernardo Márquez García to move people hard to vote for his son for the chance that this PNP Bastion falls
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