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The closest election in 2020 for the Puerto Rico House of Representatives, and my former legislative district, the 31st legislative district returned incumbent representative, Jesús Santa Rodríguez for a third Term, (Note: Santa Rodriguez is the son of the late former Senator for Humacao VII Jesus Santa Aponte).
A District characterized by it's soberanista and Melon tendencies, and strong statehood minority the decrease in the saliance for the Commonwealth option combined with the increasing depolarization regarding the status question happening in Puerto Rico, alongside the rise of minor parties in 2016/2020 left the PPD in a precarious position in this district.
Functionally in both 2016, and 2020 they relied on the ancestral Melon tendencies of North Caguas to carry them over the finish line in this district, where the PNP, given a newfound oppertunity due to the Soberanista and ELA votes being split, tried to use what they thought was a solid pro Statehood minority* in Gurabo to give them the edge, falling short because they ended up losing the most liberal statehood voters due to the status depolarization.
*It should be noted that 2020 was the first time that the Caguas-Gurabo district, (or the Gurabo district purely) voted for statehood, doing so by 1.30%, after Statehood got only 44.67% in the 2012 Plebiscite once one incudes blank Ballots (almost mirroring the 2012-2020 Growth in pro-statehood sentiments)
Furthermore, the Status depolarization can be seen in the fact that for the first time in PR's history, in the gubernatorial election: the Gurabo centered district went to the PNP in a close election, and only the third time that either (and first time that both) of the Caguas centered districts went to the PNP in a close gubernatorial election (The other two were when Caguas was considered a swing municipio from 1968-1976, in 1968 and 1976).
In any case, due to the way that redistring in Puerto Rico appears to be shaking up, it appears that Jesús Santa Rodríguez will be somewhat shored up, losing part of Gurabo that is strongly PNP allowing him to be in a better position for 2024, even if he is still in a tossup.
Looking at the Precinto results, the nature of the 2020 race becomes clear, one where it's Caguas vs Gurabo, with the slightly more populated Caguas giving Jesús Santa Rodríguez his 0.37% (and 121 vote) Margin in the district thanks to winning Caguas by 10.92% (and 1,834 votes) whereas Santa lost Gurabo by 10.98% (and 1,713 votes).
Plebicito Por Unidad
Plebicito Por Precinto
Gobernación Por Unidad
Gobernación Por Precinto
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