2012 Puerto Rican Elections

The 2012 Gubernatorial election: one of the closest elections in recent memory statewide in Puerto Rico resulted in the defeat of incumbent (R-PNP) Governor Luis Fortuño at the hands of (PPD-D) chalenger Alejandro García Padilla.

This defeat was due to a multitude of factors that occured durring the 2009-2012 years: but the main one was a worsening economic and fiscal crisis due to the 2008 recession and Puerto Rico's then still increasing debt burden that would end García Padilla's chances in 2016.

Fortuño's unpopularity was also compounded by the Passage of Public Law 7. An attempt early on in the administration to heal the burgening Puerto Rican Debt Crisis.

The law attempted declared a state of emergency regarding the Fiscal Crisis, allowing Fortuño to sidestep public sector Union's and lay off ~13,000-30,000 Public Sector workers as well as cutting Labor Benefits for the workers that Remained (Source), leading to 200,000 people taking to the streats of San Juan to protest the law.

These fiscal crisis, combined with Scandals unanimously involvinge PNP Legislators, and other attempts at privatization, and Obama legitimizing the candidacy of noted Gaf Machine, and one Term Senator of Alejandro García Padilla by endorsing him (source) resulted in Fortuño's loss.

2012 Governor By Senate Districts

2012 Governor By House Districts

In the 2012 Resident Commissioner's election: Incumbent Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi (D-PNP) won over Challenger Rafael Cox Alomar(D-PPD). With this being the second of two times (the other being in 2004) that the Ofice of Resident Commissioner went to one party when the Governorship went to the other party.

This is mostly due to a near universal overperformance of 1.5-2% throughout the Island, with Pierluisi's largest overperformances comming in the San Juan Metro, San Juan, and the Urban Areas of Puerto Rico more Generally, in part due to him being the most left wing of the PNP Slate.

Furthermore, Pedro Pierluisi - like PPD Nominee Alejandro García Padilla - was significantly favored by those who voted by Candidate rather than by Party, presenting the case that most people were fine with him in his post.

In addition, it is likely the people who voted By Candidate rejecting the "Soberania" that was favored by Rafael Cox Alomar (Source)- the only statewide PPD Candidate to lose, but disfavored by the Rest of the Statewide PPD Slate (Gov + At Large Leaders) - considering that it was the main difference between him and Pierluisi.

Another thing that - to a lesser extent - aided Pierluisi in his victory was his close assosiation with Obama - a popular figure on the island - from Pierluisi supporting him in 2008 when Obama needed him and 2012 (Source 1) (Source 2).

Beyond the assosiation, the implied support from Obama to Pierluisi also denied a legitimization of the candidacy of Cox Alomar as a significant force in the election. A ligitimization that was given to Alejandro García Padilla in Obama's implied endorsement of him for the Governorship(source)

2012 Resident Commissioner By Senate Districts

2012 Resident Commissioner By House Districts

In terms of the Mayoralties, the PPD achieved Major Gains (Net+17), not just in traditional party strongholds(Such as Guayama, Cabo Rojo, Vega Baja and Salinas) and swing mayoralties lost in 2008(Such as San Juan and Culebra), but in Traditionally PNP strongholds(Such as Utuado, Ciales, Orocovis, Patillas and then Arroyo)

Out of all of the results in 2012 this was one of the most inpactfull, as it resulted in the PNP again loosing San Juan to the PPD.

More specifically - the Soberanista and future Bernie Sanders endorser Carmen Yulín Cruz Soto(D-PPD), who defeated the Incumbend Jorge Santini(R-PNP) in the later's bid for a fourth term.

In the PR State Senate elections, the PNP was confronted with it's largest defeat of he night, loosing 12/16 District seats, and being held to four at large seats they were just on the cusp of needing the Minorities law to add seats in their favor to prevent the PPD from attaining a 2/3rds majority as they did in 2000.

The Magnitude of this loss as compared to the other losses in the night was in part due the Senate PNP's constant scndals - with them suffering a large percentage of the high Profile scandals in this Term, such as the Jorge de Castro Font Scandal, and Miscelanious other scandals.

Note: while the PNP was defeated in the Gov and senate district elections in the same districts - the senate district elections tended to see larger defeats than the gubernatorial election.

The House PPD performed worse than the senate PPD thanks to the comparative lack of scandals sorounding the House of Representatives, with the house PPD only winning a 5 seat (28 PPD -23 PNP) Majority, as compared to the Senate's 10 seat (18 PPD - 8 PNP) Majority.

However, despite the comparative underperformance to the Senate caucus, the House PPD was still able to have an inpresive showing, holding the PNP to 2 García Padilla-PNP seats, whilst attaining 4 Fortuño-PPD seats.

The few crossover seas were due to the Prevalence of straignt Party vote in the Legislative ballots, with the Few Crossover seats being due to Incumbency (18, & 28-PNP, & 25-PPD), Scandals (17-PPD), or gettign swept up in the wave in the Legislative Ballot (15, & 34-PPD).

Lastly, the 2012 status referendum: a 2 Part question, asking if Puerto Rico wanted to maintain the Territorial status (ELA) that it had, and which of the non territotial options was the preference of the people.

This Plebiscite resulted in a resounding defeat for the PPD, with just over half of electors choosing to end the Estado Libre Assosiado - mostly concentrated in the PNP strongholds, in addition to both Ponce and San Juan - leading to one of a few defeats for the PPD in 2012.

Consulta De La Estatus Actual Por Distrito Senatorial

Consulta De La Estatus Actual Por Distrito Cameral

Compounding the PPD's Woes, On paper, the PNP won on the second question as well, with just under 2/3rds of people who voted on the second question choosing statehood - with a generally traditional PNP coalition ensuing, despite a few outliers.

It should also be noted that the PIP campaigned for no & Independence in this referendum, and a fraction of PPD leaders campaigned for yes, and "ELA Soberano" a misleading term for Free Assosiation that presents it as an "enhanced ELA"

Consulta De Opciones No Territoriales Por Distrito Senatorial

Consulta De Opciones No Territoriales Por Distrito Cameral

However, due to many leaders of the PPD Advocating for leaving the second question Blank, there ended up being an intense question of validity as to the nature of the second question, as statehood only had a 46.4% Plurality of Valid votes from Question 1.

It was eventually settled by the Obama administration that the Results were inconclusive, with President Obama and congress apropiating funds for a plebiscite in the 2014 Budget to clear up the results.

However, said plebiscite was never held for unexplained reasons, with the succeeding 2017 and 2020 Plebiscites utilizing state funds apropriated by the Government of Puerto Rico.

Consulta De Opciones No Territoriales (Blancos) Por Distrito Senatorial

Consulta De Opciones No Territoriales (Blancos) Por Distrito Cameral

Noticias de las Elecciones 2012

Plebisito 2012 y lo que sucedio despues.

Musica de las Elecciones 2012

PNP
PPD