2020 San Juan Mayoral & City Council Election

One of the most high profile races in Puerto Rico, The race to succeed the unpopular and Controversial Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz Soto was not originally shaping up to be a close one, with the longtime frontrunner, San Juan District Senator Miguel Romero (PNP-D), Coming out on top.

By Percent obtained

By Margin obtained

Despite Pre-race poling showing a Strong lead for Romero, most people were suprised when the MVC Candidate, & At Large Representative Manuel Natal finished in a close second place.

Mind you, the fact that he finished second wasn't suprising, as Pre Election polls showed a tight race for second place, & the fact Yulín harmed the PPD Brand in San Juan,

In addition to that, the PPD Candidate(Rossana López Leon) did not run a strong campaign, running on experience in a time when being a politician was looked at with scorn in PR

However, Natal burned through his star from the strong second place finish rather quickly, when after the counting was done he called for a recount alleging fraud in the mail in ballots without evidence, something which was then tossed out of every court that looked at the case.

Despite that, Natal is still in a strong position in the MVC and is currently the frontrunner to be their next gubernatorial nominee in 2024.

This was one of the Few Races where one of the two major parties(PNP/PPD) came in third place, and one of two mayoral races(the other being in Guayanilla).

Taking a look at the candidate's performances, Natal Did best in the Río Piedras section of San Juan(not the peninsula) holding down Romero's Margins to less than a point in the 2nd & 4th Precinctos & around 3 points in the 3rd & 5th Precinctos.

Comparatively, Miguel Romero did best in the San Juan Peninsula(the urban area Proper/what people think of when they thing of San Juan) wining it by 7.69%

Lastly, I'd Like to note that despite the closeness of the Mayoral result, the City council ended up electing a supermayority from the Partido Nuevo Progresista, due to the system that they used.

But that's a story for another time.

San Juan Mayoral Election by Unidades Electorales (01/09/22)

A Small Adendum to the prior analysis on the 2020 San Juan Mayoral: Taking a look at the Unidades map, we can see that Manuel Natal was able to do the best in the Rio Piedras Area in and around UPR, and the urban core of the city.

Performing best in it's college educated, anti-statehood areas, and worst in it's non college educated pro statehood areas.

Something which is owed to the fact that Natal was strong with the old, PIP-PPD anti-statehood block in San Juan that encompased one half of the citie's politics since the late 80s.