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A Key Battleground for 2023, and the only Legislative Pickup for the Dememocrats in 2021, NJ's LD 16 is likely to be one of the most significant contests of 2021, likely determining if Dems have outright controll of the NJ Senate, or if it's tied.
By Margin
By Percent
Deeply divided between the Deep blue areas of Princeton, South Brunswick, & Montgomery, the Downballot red areas of Clinton Township Readington, & Branchburg, & the downballot swing area of Hillsborough this Murphy +5.00%/ District is most likely to send it's incumbent Dems back to the legislature
This is because though becomming slightly redder in redistricting, the incumbency advantage garnered by the Dems despite the strong attempts by NJ Rs to oust/defeat them in 2021 is likely strong enough to overturn GOP attempts to regain this district.
It should however be noted that the Assembly seats were redder than the Senate seats, with the Combined D vote coming in at a margin of 3.19%, coming it at 1.72% worse than the senate Dems 4.91%.
By Margin
By Percent
Most of that Assembly underperformance can be attributed to the only democrat to not having been elected in the previous iteration Sadaf F. Jaffer, who when combined with Hope Kaufman's performance to get a districtwide picture, bested the closest republican by 0.95%.
However, the suburban nature of this district could lead to them losing, especially if the environment is redder than 2021, the aformentioned incumbency advantage (& the benefit of Home town kid Jack Ciattarelli not leading the ticket), the Dems should be able to hold this district in the end.
My initial ratings for these seats are Sen: Likely D, Assembly Seat 1: Likely D, & Assembly Seat 2: Lean D
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