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The 2020 Democratic Primary in New York's 16th Congressional District, functionally the general election in this deep blue seat, This election resulted in First time candidate Principle Jamaal Bowman ousting 16-term incumbent Elliot Engel in this Westchester-North Bronx seat.
At the time this race was held, Bowman had funcionally caught Engel by somewhat of a surprise—not fully expecting a challenge as he thought of himself as progressive, despite Bordering Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's nearby win.
This unawaredness likely contributed to the gaffe that ended up giving Bowman the momendum he needed to win, where in the Bronx Engel was caught on a Hot Mic saying “If I didn’t have a primary [...] I wouldn’t care.”
In addition to this unawaredness, the at the time insurgent Progressive movement had spent heavilly on Bowman, contributing hight profile endorsements such as that from Elizabeth Warren, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Bernie Sanders contributing to his momentum in ousting Engel.
Despite this, Promenent New York and National Politicians such as Nancy Pelosi, Andrew Cuomo, and Hillary Clinton tried to save Engel, with Clinton enphasizing his seniority as an important factor in his reelection.
However, his seniority likely played a problem as combined with the previous gaffe it most likely contributed to the perception that Engel was in washington for too long and was no longer in touch with the district's political leanings.
In any case, all these factors combined to give Bowman a win in 2020, with this Westchester centered district sending him to congress over their longtime incumbent—Eliot Engel—in an impressive 14.8% victory for Mr. Bowman.
His 2022 Primary win however, was less than impressive. Here, in facing off against Westchester County legislators Vadat Gashi and Catherine Parker Congressman Bowman only took 54.2% against a divided field, winning by 29.1% over his closest opponent, but only 8.8% over all his opponents combined.
2022 Primary by Candidate (Labled)
2022 Primary Bowman v Other (Labled)
While this combined 8.8% margin was worse than his 14.8% in 2020, it should be noted that in redistricting Bowman received areas that were more unfamiliar to him than the other legislators, whilst also taking out areas that he did better in in his 2020 Primary, decreasing his incumbency advantage.
But despite this, his only taking 54.2% in his 2022 primary is still an incredibly concerning statistic that makes him one of the most endangered incumbents in primaries in 2024 as he seeks reelection over Westchester county Executive George Latimer
2020 Primary by Candidate
2022 Primary by Candidate
2022 Primary Bowman v Other
- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/nyregion/jamaal-bowman-eliot-engel.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive®ion=ReporterUpdates
- https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2020&id=NY16
- Shapefiles from Harvard's @vest_team & Twitter's @BenJ_Rosenblatt
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