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2022 is set to be a year with many competetive contests, and one of the places that promices to hold two Marquee Contests is in the Grand Canyon State of Arizona.
With Mark Kelly potentially facing off against Attorney General Mark Brnovich, and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs facing off Treasurer Kimberly Yee, it would be a good Idea to take a look at all four candidate's electoral pasts
To start off we have AG Mark Brnovich's 2014 Election, His first election, in which he won by 5.8% he won Maricopa county by 8.6%.
While initially seen as potentially competitive, this did not end up being the case as Brnovich and the Republican Attorney General's Association ended up heavily outspending the Democrat Attorney General's Association and Dem Felecia Rotellini.
Next up we have Brnovich's 2018 Reelection, where he won by a less impressive 3.4%, despite once more outspending his opponent.
In between both of these elections a coalition shift can be seen, as in his second go around Brnovich ended up doing worse in most of the traditionally democratic parts of Arizona, in addition to Crucial Maricopa county. As seen below.
While Brnovich ended up doing well in most of the counties he needs to win, the gradual decline that republicans are experiencing in Maricopa could be what seals his fate in the senate race.
The Converse of that is if he ends up doing well enough in the Phoenix suburbs of Pinal County, he may be able to eke out a win depending on how much he loses Maricopa if he loses maricopa.
Next up, We have Astronaut and current senator Mark Kelly's 2020 win, As one of the Democrats that outperformed Biden Kelly Himself is not a candidate to be underestimated, ousting Incumbent Senator Martha McSally (D)51.16% to (R) 48.81%
Kelly's Overperformance was in essence everywhere, running between 1-2% ahead of Biden in Coconino, Pima and Maricopa, those three counties are only the tip of the Iceburg of his strength, as seen below.
Outperforming in Pinal County is Kelly's greatest and most hidden asset, as if Brnovich or any other R can't get the numbers they need from either or both counties, they, in essence, fall just out of the running.
Next up we have Kimberly Yee's 2018 Performance, one of the strongest that year, she'll easily be the strongest republican on the ticket, Though underperforming Doug Ducey in that year, her 8.6% victory is still nothing to laugh at, and she will put up one hell of a fight in 2022
Lastly, we come to Katie Hobbs' 2018 win, though underwhelming, considering she outspent her opponent like Brnovich, she has recently become a star amongst the democratic party for her handling of the 2020 election in Arizona, and is one of the Dem's Strongest candidates.
Unlike most people above Hobbs only won Maricopa county by 1.4% but as it is the most populous county in Arizona, that, along with keeping the rest of the state close was enough to propel her to a win in the Copper state.
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