For them I’m assuming candidate recruitment isn’t botched (Ghalager in WI Decent R in the rest of the States) & the map stays exactly the same as 2020.
Favored is used in between Likely & Lean because It's not quite Likely or Lean,
I’d probably put them all as Lean due too uncertainty but it’s not fully Lean. I’m also assuming all incumbents run unless otherwise stated.
Also the list for Tilts in biggest to least danger is:
1. WI (with Ghalager)
2. AZ (strong Primary weakens or ousts Sinema, still doubt but I’ll assume that’s the case).