2022 NJ-08th Dem Primary

The 2022 Democratic Primary in NJ's 8th Congressional District, a coronation for the Son of senator Bob Menendez, Port Authority Commissioner Rob Menendez won a comfortable 67.9% victory over both his opponents combined.

Here, the primary was over before it began, as within a few days of Represenative Albio Sires announcing his retirement to run for Mayor of West New York funcionally all of the district's most prominent politicians endorsed Rob Menendez Jr before Menendez Jr formally announced his campaign

This primary is also emblematic as to why it is highly likely that Menendez Jr remains in congress come 2025, seen bellow are the composition of the electorate by Municipality, as well as the demographic composition of the seat.

What can be gleamed from this is that the areas with near Unanimous Menendez support, the Hispanic heavy Machine dominated North Hudson, as well as less unanimous but still Hispanic heavy Newark and Elizabeth in the 2022 Primary comprised 61.6% of the district's electorate.

NJ-08 Electorate Composition Data

NJ-08 VAP Demographic Data

By contrast, the progressive parts of the seat (Jersey City and Hoboken) only comprised 26.6% of the seat's primary electorate in the 2022 Congressional Democratic Primary.

Now, this is an extreme example as North Hudson normally casts ~33% of the votes in Democratic Primaries compared to Jersey City and Hoboken combined comprising ~40-45% of the electorate—but this example is emblematic of the issues that Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla will face in his challenge to Menendez

Here specifically, he will need to overcome the near Unanimous margin that Menendez will likely receive from North Hudson as the local machines (headed by Mayors Brian Stack of Union City, Nick Sacco of North Bergen, and Albio Sires of West New York) turn out their municipalities' vote for Rob jr.

In order to win Bhalla will need to make inroads into White Dominant Weehawken, Bayone, and especially the Hispanic heavy Newark and Elizabeth, winning them whilst getting a strong margin & turnout out of his bases in Jersey City's down town and his native Hoboken.

However, as of now, I am informed that he has limited presense outside of his progressive base in Jersey City—moreover, when I have visited the district, I have personally seen Spanish language outreach in the form of avertisements from Menendez jr; I have observed nothing to a similar caliber from the Bhalla camp

2020 Presidential Election in NJ-08 by Municipality