Embedded Files
The GOP's top legislative pickup oportunity, the New LD-4, is one whose history of Legislative Democratic overperformances gives the Democrats a fighting chance to retain this Ciattarelli +5.4 Seat.
Looking at the 2021 Senate elections (Which contained races from L-2, LD-3, LD-4 & LD-8), we find that the Democratic Senate candidates combined won this new seat by a margin of 1.6%, with the strength of the win comming from Camden Co. which gave Democrats a 14.7% margin, and holding Gloucester to a 9.5% Loss.
However, As compared to the State Senate results, the Assembly results are not rosy for Democrats, with the Assembly candidates of these districts combined lossing the seat by 1.5%, nearly identical to the Senate Democrats win margin.
Despite putperforming Gov. Murphy in this district by 3.9%, The Democratic Assembly candidate's only winning the Camden portion by 11.8%, & losing Gloucester portion by 13.0%, cost them the victory in the new LD-4.
As can be seen through the overperformances, it is clear which chamber's Democrats are likely to hold on to LD-4 - the senate Dems - whose candidates enjoyed a stronger incumbency advantage than their Assembly counterparts throughout the district.
The Only exception is the Assembly Dem's overperformance in the Atlantic county portion, which was due to the Senate Dem's candidate (Then Assemblyman, Vince Mazzeo) not being a the senate incumbent whilst the Assembly Dems had one incumbent (then Assemblyman John Armato).
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse