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With Puerto Rican Redistricting completed, it is time to take a look at how the 2024-2032 likely voted in the 2020 PR Elections, so as to ascertain the likely voting patterns of these districts in the 2024 and 2028 Elections.
Gobernador 2020
Comisionado Residente 2020
2020 Representante Por Distrito
2020 Senador Por Distrito
2020 Representante por Acumulación
2020 Senador por Acumulación
Plebisito (Margen)
2020 Voto para Alcaldes
Starting off in the SJ-1 Senate district, the district itself took in more of Guaynabo, Increassing the Underlying PNP Vote share in nearly all elections, and on the surface helping the PNP retain both seats in 2024.
However, the added areas are also more left leaning so this doesn't present a major (but rather a minor) obstacle for MVC to gain one of the SJ Seats; depending on the PNPs candidates.
In terms of the House districts, the movement of a few voters between Districts 2, 3, & 4 make major diferences for the 2024 House elections.
This is because - in contrast to 2020 - the changes would have made the PNP win all 3 Districts, up from 2/3 in 2020, gaining District 2 from then PPD (Now IND) Rep, while in addition Shoring up Victor Pares (PNP-4), bringing his roughly 1% MoV over the PPD to a ~3% Margin.
However this comes at the expense of Precinto 3, where Juan Oscar Morales' Margin goes down to 0.18% or 44 Votes over the MVC Candidate Eva Prados, Making this a significant opportunity for the MVC to pick up a seat in 2024.
Note: San Juan Mayoral Candidate Manuel Natal Won Precinto 2 in his election, making it the MVC's second best Pickup opportunity.
There are no major changes in the Bayamón District, with the most significant change being that the PPD Representative for district 10 would have had their victory margin reduced to 0.35% or 88 votes.
As Pointed out by @Boris4Democracy the Removal of Ciales makes the overall PNP Number Rise in Most elections, but in the Senate elections it makes the overall PPD Number fall, at the Expense of the 2nd Place Candidate Rubén Soto Rivera.
In terms of Districts, the PPD suffers in the district of the Speaker of the House (Rafael "Tatito" Hernandez) with the PNP decreasing the margin by 0.15%. This comes at the Expense in District 12, where the PPD Gains 1.6% in Margin over the PNP, bringing the advantage to ~4%.
In addition to this, no Major Changes appear in any of the other Districts in Arecibo, With the largest temaining one being that the PNP is shored up in District 13, Who's representative is retiring to run At-Large
There are very minor changes in the Mayagüez-Aguadilla Senate District, with 4/5 House districts not changing more than 0.1% in margin, and the one that did - House District 16 - was fortified for the PPD by 2%, making the rep clearly favored for Reelection.
Once more, as @Boris4Democracy pointed out, the Senate district's exclusion of Las Marías Helps the PPD Incumbent senators in their reelection, likely letting one or both survive in 2024.
The Ponce Senate District is the District that suffered the Most Changes, with the Inclusion of Las Marias and Ciales Helping the PNP narrow the PPD's advantage in the district. In addition, 3/5 Districts suffered significant changes that will make or Break the Majority in 2024
Starting with District 21, The inclusion of Las Marías and reshoufling of Yauco Brings down the PPD's advantage in their longest held district from 2.42% and 770 votes to 0.08% and 28 Votes, Making this district trully gettable for the PNP in 2024.
Next up is district 22, Which similar to District 21, the inclusion of Ciales and exclusion of most of Adjuntas Makes it so that this is one of 2 District (The other being District 2) that would have elected a PNP under the new lines that elected a PPD under the old ones in 2020.
As that suggests, that makes the PNP clear favorites to take this district back in 2024.
Next, and the Last of the Ponce District that I'll talk about, District 23, Has the Majority for the PPD increased thanks to the inclusion of Adjuntas.
However, due to the fact that the PPD had an advantage in that municipio Unprecedented in modern times, and in Fact most other PNP's won this district, so it is a tossup as to who this advantages with the 2024 Result likely to be one of the closest on the island.
There were no changes to the Guayama senate district, and no major changes to districts 27, 29, or 30, with the PPD in district 26 Receiving a 0.5% boost.
In addition, while the PPD still would have won District 28 under the new lines, the fact that it was against a scandal Plagued incumbent, most other PNP's won it, and that the PPD's advantage was lowered by 0.55% makes the PPD incumbent very endangered in 2024
The Humacao Senate district also received Minimal changes, with Districts 33 and 34 Being weakened for the PPD by 0.8% and 0.6% respectively, and the Senate District Itself being unchanged.
Alongside that, the Exclusion of a section of Gurabo strengthening Jesus Santa Rodriguez (PPD-31). by 0.74%, bringing his District from the Closest to a 1.11% and 344 Vote advantage. Districts 32 and 35 Were not changed.
The Senate District of Carolina, as well as Districts 36 & 37 Did not receive any changes, With the Changes in Districts 38 increasing the PNP advantage to 3.6%, and in 39 Decreasing the PPD Representatives' Advantage to 5.8%
At the same time The PPD Representative for District 40 had his advantage increased by 0.24% to 5.35% and 1,314 votes.
Lastly, Please check out @Boris4Democracy's Analysis on the underlying partisan advantages for each of the Districts, and will be linked to when it comes out.
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