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The 2020 Gubernatorial election saw the New MVC come out of the woodwork with a strong base thanks to Gov Candidate Alexandra Lugaro's 2016 showing, a showing that was expanded uppon by most candidates down the ballot in the house races.
With MVC House candidates overperforming the most in Metro San Juan and the Ponce Suburbs by an average of 1.96%, it is probable that if they get a strong showing in 2024, that the party would be able to gain a district seat if they play their cards right.
This overperformance is likely due to them being the brand new option that lacked the longstanding Stigma of the PIP, and the stigma that Lúgaro herself got from the campaign - leading to Generic MVC likely being able to do better than Lúgaro in the future.
Note: Eva Prados in District 3 overperformed the most by 15.6%, mostly due to winning Dalmau voters. Due to her abnormal performance the Median (2.83% District candidate overperformance) is provided
By contrast to the MVC where the house candidates tended to overperform Lúgaro, the PIP House candidates almost univerally underperformed Dalmau.
The worst underperformances came in the San Juan Metro, where there was a large ammount of Dalmau/other party voters, with Metro Ponce comming in second, the Southwest coming in third and Arecibo in Fourth.
Dalmau's limmited overperformance-Underperformance in the rest of the island can likely be attributed to his brand not being significantly distinct from the PIP by and large, with him retaining the stigma, and only gaining by contrast to 2016, the "Melones"(PIPs that vote PPD) that didn't vote for Maria De Lourdes, but voted for PIP legislative candidates (Including Dalmau 2016 Sen) before.
However, the fact that a lot of voters were Dalmau voters over PIP voters likely suggests that the PIP's growth is less sustainable than the MVC, with Dalmau building his own brand - seperate from the longstanding Stigma that the PIP has had in PR Politics.
Note, the PD only fielded 7 candidates - no where near enough to have a representative sample of Gov Over/Underperformance - however, of the significant overperformances, the PD Candidates in District 24, District 25 and District 37 overperformed PD Gov Nominee César Vazques by 2.19%, 1.87%, & 1.13% respectively.
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