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The 2021 Election for NJ's Governor, an election few thought would be close, and even fewer thought Incumbent Governor (D) Phil Murphy would lose was the first time since Brendan Byrne in 1977 that NJ Reelected a Democratic Governor.
While this election had many suprises, the main surprise to many was Murphy's complete collapse in South Jersey, and the hit to the South Jersey "Norcross" Machine that also ended up taking out Senate President Steve Sweeney.
This collapse resulted in Murphy loosing the historically Democratic or Dem leaning Cumberland and Gloucester counties as well as Atlantic County, which he carried by above average margins in his first election in 2017.
In his victory, Phil Murphy tied with Jack Ciattarelli, both carryong 6/12 Congressional Districts. By Contrast, Murphy carried 24/40 legislative districts to Ciattarelli's 14. Down from carrying 9/12 Congressional districts, and 29/11 legislative districts in 2017
comparing the 2021 Gubernatorial election to the 2020 presidential election, we find that the general partisanship of most locations stayed roughly the same, in some places.
With the down ballot Democratic lean of South Jersey collapsing, but the down ballot republican lean in North Jersey holding strong.
By contrast, the northern section of the northeast coridor(Essex/Hudson/Southern Bergen) Retainned it's democratic down ballot nature, suggesting continued strength in that area for the Democratic party, or an area ripe for a collapse in the party's support.
In the vein of what is mentioned above 11/12 congressional Districts swung Republican in 2021 in contrast to the 2020 presidential, where 36/40 Legislative districts did the same. with the few districts that swung democratic being anchored in Hudson and Essex counties.
Taking a direct look between Murphy 2017 compared to Murphy 2021showcases that slowly, the federal lean is shifting down ballot, with Somersett and Hunterdon County swinging left compared to the 2017 election, as the rest of the state swung right.
By contrast, the South Jersey Collapse is more evident here, with greater than 14% swings in most of the counties that make up the core of south Jersey.
Furthermore, Murphy holding closser to Biden's North Jersey numbers, he ended up significantly underperforming his 2017 watermark, however, Murphy outperformed in these areas too a greater extent in 2020-21, than in 2016-17(source).
in this Vein, 3/40 Legislative districts swung to Murphy, where 1 Congressional district did, all centered around Somersett and Hunterdon counties.
Whereas the the rest of the districts swung to Ciattarelli, with the greatest swings being in the southern 1st & 2nd CDs, & the Hispanic 8th & 9th CDs. With the similar LDs LD's located in the same areas in South NJ as well as Hudson, Essex, Southern Bergen & Passaic (Patterson)
2021 NJ Gubernatorial Election By Municipality
2021 NJ Gubernatorial Election By Municipality
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