In emphasizing the difficulty Auriemma has in winning the district, he needs to do well in the Bergen portion while not being blown out in Passaic city (less than a 20% win for Sarlo. For context he won it in 2021 by 40%)
To this effect he needs like a 20% margin in Wallington, at least a 15% in Carlstadt, win North Arlington & Lyndhurst by ~10% & not be blown out in Rutherford, Fairview, Edgewater & Cliffside Park. (25%+ combined margin)
Fairview Hispanics not turning out for Sarlo would also be a plus but I don’t think they came out in 2021.
Prempeh got like 1.8/3 things (good Passaic margin, North Arlington & Carsradt) but got blown out in Rutherford, Fairview, Edgewater & Cliffside
Biggest hurdles however are tripartite Passaic City (Sarlo has strong Orthodox Jewish Support), not being blown out in the educated portions of the districts, and the heretofore unmentioned Wood-Ridge section which Sarlo (as municipal boss & mayor) wins by landslides.
As such, this, in addition to Republican Candidate Joseph Viso's Poopgate https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/assembly-candidate-spread-fecal-matter-on-daycare-center-doors/, is why this district is safe (Also the GOP are barely spending money in LD-36).
Notes:
Murphy won LD-36 by 6.5% in 2021, Pascrell won it by 8.5% in 2022, and Biden by 13.7% in 2020
The GOP Candidates raised like 19K throughout the Cycle while Dems Raised $234K Throughout the cycle, spending as much, and still having $1.52 Million Cash on hand