Embedded Files
In emphasizing the difficulty Auriemma has in winning the district, he needs to do well in the Bergen portion while not being blown out in Passaic city (less than a 20% win for Sarlo. For context he won it in 2021 by 40%)
To this effect he needs like a 20% margin in Wallington, at least a 15% in Carlstadt, win North Arlington & Lyndhurst by ~10% & not be blown out in Rutherford, Fairview, Edgewater & Cliffside Park. (25%+ combined margin)
Fairview Hispanics not turning out for Sarlo would also be a plus but I don’t think they came out in 2021.
Prempeh got like 1.8/3 things (good Passaic margin, North Arlington & Carsradt) but got blown out in Rutherford, Fairview, Edgewater & Cliffside
Biggest hurdles however are tripartite Passaic City (Sarlo has strong Orthodox Jewish Support), not being blown out in the educated portions of the districts, and the heretofore unmentioned Wood-Ridge section which Sarlo (as municipal boss & mayor) wins by landslides.
As such, this, in addition to Republican Candidate Joseph Viso's Poopgate https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/assembly-candidate-spread-fecal-matter-on-daycare-center-doors/, is why this district is safe (Also the GOP are barely spending money in LD-36).
Notes:
Murphy won LD-36 by 6.5% in 2021, Pascrell won it by 8.5% in 2022, and Biden by 13.7% in 2020
The GOP Candidates raised like 19K throughout the Cycle while Dems Raised $234K Throughout the cycle, spending as much, and still having $1.52 Million Cash on hand
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse