Potential Hispanic Losses for Dems (Originaly a Thread)

What’s happening is that they all shifted closer to island partisanship of 60-40 give or take.

Floridaricans are now line with Island partisanshi, Newyoricans and Philiricans are ~20% and ~10% above respectively,

But Philly/Newyoricans are old era Diasporicans, so they are more liberal Net than island partisanship, I can’t recall the precise numbers though. But they are a lot more liberal than south Florida Hispanics.

TLDR: Redding PA or Holyoke are unlikely to have a Miami-Dade style drastic shift to the right (actual shift below).

Should add the “island partisanship” bit applies to the newer diasporicans the newest(like Osceola) shifted the closest the in between (like Philly) is in between and the oldest (NY) is not close at all.

I add that caveat because The more exposure to Mainland culture the more liberal Puerto Ricans become(Source)(Source 2)

I’m tired so I can’t bring up the corroborating evidence but at worst for PA & MA there’s another ~5-10 shift right before the base island partisanship hardens the Floor.

NYC is probably the same but it could also be done, or it could shift right by 20%

Hard to tell because they’ve been 90% for a while, historical data does point to this being the floor though (see bush’s performance)

but that may have been a 9/11 bump or conservative Hispanics going to him. Either way it’s too early to tell for NY but they’re a slightly different flavor of PR than the one I study(and the rest of the country).