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Written on August, 12, 2022
Fetterman’s shot at winning is defining Oz as an out of touch liberal elite who doesn’t care about issues concerning Pennsylvanians.
Oz is a snake oil salesman who’s good at what he does,,, ceding ground to Fetterman now is letting the latter pull an Obama and making his job a lot harder, and if he waits too late: Impossible
Stumping is one thing, but that helps you with ~500 voters if you do a large rally and can be negated by an opposition rally.
Through this, Oz going radio Silent/letting McConnell’s pac basically do all his ad work is a big problem for him, and he’s 100% mainly relying on the environment to carry him (which will likely be enough), but Mastriano being in the Dark and Shapiro growing stronger by the day really begin to dampen the potential for the environment to help him as much as he may need. If Fetterman keeps up his current campaign and Oz doesn’t pick up his approvals to manageable levels by mid October he’s got some issues.
& if Fetterman is at 49% and Oz at 44% in the final polling average, put your money on Big Dood.
I stress, this is all info based on *TODAY* campaigns can change, and Oz’s NEEDS a change, otherwise he’s just relying on the environment, which considering how PA is shaping up down ballot (in addition to Gov) + 2021’s results during the height of the Rex wave is not a gamble I’d take.
Overall, Tilt/Lean Oz assuming a corse correction or horrific environment Tossup/Lean Fetterman if the aforementioned variables in this specific tweet don’t materialize.
Addendum: Oz is a strong candidate on paper because his TV skills and photogenic nature make him great at ads and stumping.
But him not being in his “element” (Rich Liberal suburbia) and general penchant for on and off campaigning + his radioactive approvals make him a bellow average candidate at best, and only better than the MAGA-Boomer nutjobs
This is not helped by the fact that Fetterman and the PA Dems were preparing to run against *HIM* they’d have been dead in the water against McCormick (a few weeks behind to reset the campaign while McCormick would be swinging) and Barnette would have depended on if she pivoted
Written on September 6th, 2022
So Oz is going the Toomey Path of hoping the Philly suburbs bail him out through an underperformance with the Base
Not the worst strategy, but he better hope the Philly Burbs are close enough that whatever margin he gets in the Rurals pushes him over the top.
(Fetterman being seen by them as a Generic MSNBC D probably gets him at least a Torsella margin so it comes down to can the rurals/WePA deliver a Win because of Oz’s nuclear approvals, or can he get enough of a margin out of SEPA to win, outperforming Torsella. Or a combination of all… as has been the case for the whole race)
Oz Favorability Polls: Compiled on September 22, 2022 & October 9, 2022
Oz Favorability Polls: Compiled on September 22, 2022 & October 9, 2022
Written on September 16th, 2022
Something important to Note is that, statistically, Fetty hasn’t fallen from Early on, so Oz doing better is just Rs “coming home” as was expected. His issue is getting the final few % and not bleeding to much to the Libertarian & Right wing independent.
Problem is that this still happened in North Carolina with Tillis in 2020, so unless the trajectory changes: Lean D
All Polls as of 9/16/22
All Polls as of 9/16/22
All Polls Partially after Labour Day as of 9/16/22
All Polls Fully after Labour Day as of 9/16/22
Written on September 22, 2022
Interesting fact: in the Susquehanna Poll that had Fetterman up 5%, I'd be interested to see how this has changed, and if this has changed (Note: likely Due to a Small Sample size)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2022/Topline-PAStatewide-Aug2022.pdf
Written on September 25th, 2022
Taking a look at the polls since Mid August, Most of them have had Fetterman at 49%, and at a 4-5% Lead over Oz. Only 3 Polls have had Fetterman lead over 5%
Written on September 27th, 2022
It has been sugested that Fetterman will lose more than Oz to the Libertarian; this is unlikely, what We’ve seen is that Oz’s unfavorable are Nuclear - so what probably happens is that R leaning Indies protest vote for the Lolbert rather than vote for Fetterman or “coming home” to Oz.
They probably would have voted for Oz if chosen to pick, but Depends if they’re just Anti-Oz voters or Anti-Oz R voters
Written on September 28, 2022
Looks like for PA that Oz had ~200 more ad slots than John Fetterman (https://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-092222/)
Limited Evidence as to the Effectiveness (Here are 4 averages conducted through different stages of the campaign
(Note: August 31-Sep7 has the Fetterman+21 Echelon Insights Poll)
But, Taking the August Polls, with the Polls after the Deluge, you see no fundamental change, with Fetterman Holding a +4 lead in August, and a +6 Lead in late September (D+9-21 Outliers notwithstanding), in the polling this has been ~a 6% race and Oz/SLF has yet to change that.
They very well could in October, but Time is starting to run out with 6 Weeks left to the election
Written on September 28, 2022
As I've held, the "Coming Home" Effect has occurred, and due to most of the Double Digit Fetterman Polls falling out of the Average, the Polls have it at Fetterman +5.6% (see Rolling Average of Polls Conducted in Specific Date Sections
ut the Fox News Poll has some concerning stuff for Oz, and some good things - he's successfully Polarized and made an issue of Fetterman's health, but it just aided in his consolidation of R Support, at the same time: his support is still very Tepid whilst Fetterman's is solid
(diving into the cross tabs, Fetterman can gain a 1% by further consolidating Dems, whilst Oz Can gain 3-4% getting them into 49-48% Territory, and in the MoE)
I should note: Enthusiasm also Decreased for Shapiro by the Same amount as Fetterman, so that's more-so a Dem issue than a Fetterman one.
Report: https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-pennsylvania-senate-race-narrows
September 28, 2022
Graph of Roling Average
Data in Roling Average
All Polls that Go into the Rolling Average
Oh, and RCP has a Trendline now: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html
With both of these, I can say the "Ozmentum" happened between September 1st and 16th, and more specifically between the 7th & 16th. Since then, Oz Seems to have Stalled out in 44%.
Insider advantage makes Fetterman fall under 49% (at 48.8% in RCP & 48.86% in my Personal Average, 48% in the roling averave and Fetterman is still at 49.5% in the FiveThirtyEight Average), so we'll see if that's an outlier or the start of a trend.
Note: if you include Echelon Insights then "Ozmentum" has a smaller time frame (Sept. 12-16)
In any case, I think Fetterman is up by 5.6% as of now because that's what my Expanded Average says (My limited average (the one used in the Rolling average) has it at (5.7%))
Note: It seems that "Ozmentum" is a combination of high Fetterman outliers falling out of the Average & Consolidating the GOP vote (as I thought would happen, and as Evidenced by Fetterman's Percentage staing Functionally the same at 48-49%) so by some measures the end product has yet to shift was one that should have been expected by forecasters.
Overall Rating: Lean D, the Averages currently being at Fetterman 49% vs Oz 44% and Oz's favorables still being atrocious showcase that Fetterman is still favored to win as Oz has yet to assemble a coalition that gets him over Donald Trump's 48%. Despite this, these facts can change in the next 6 weeks throughout October and Oz is not out of the game yet with Fettrman being a slight Favorite.
Written September 9, 2022
Whilst Fetterman has gotten close to 50% in reliable polling, Oz has only showed that he can consolidate the base.
IMO it’s lean D because Oz hasn’t broken out of those that will vote for him anyway because there’s an (R) next to his name & his approvals are still nuclear
Which leads me to believe a wider variance against him.
Anyway, Lean D Fetterman+1-2% see y’all in November
Also: other than the Insider advantage poll (and the second Trafalgar poll), all of Fetterman’s leads so far have been outside the Margin of Error
And the insider advantage poll still has Oz’s favorables in the Toilet (Down from 57% unfavorable to 53% unfavorable) most of the movement so far appears to be Rs coming home.
September 30, 2022
Historical Deltas in PA
What does this tell me? well 1 that Casey and Auditor Jack Wagner were Electoral Gods - and the usual: as polarization increases we see more and more results lining up with each other.
This is to say, I don't think we see anything Larger than a 9% Delta in PA Gov v Sen (which would be larger than 2010), even though I think the probable range is 4-7% (the Larger end of the more recent big ticket splits vs what we saw in 2020 down ballot)
Like a 5% chance we see a double digit Delta though lol, unlikely, but I can't rule it out.
September 30, 2022
Methinks this is in SEPA, Numbers line up with what so expect to happen there - ish (not a poll so don’t take it as gospel, but anecdotes line up) (https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328?s=20&t=zYvmoWyVVrYCSBBHYv3Rwg)
- & it doesn’t fit with the boots on the ground energy reported to me outside the Philly-media market (anecdotes don’t match).
Just as a pure thought Exercise, and if we assume Fetterman Wins all Clinton voters, and half of Trump 2016/Trump 2020 voters in the Collars he wins The Collars by 16.5%, underperforming Biden by 2.5% (This is around what I expect, which is a 15% Fetterman win in the Collars)
October 1, 2022
FTR this is the case for Tossup (I'm not there yet) but as seen in the rolling averages Dems need to spend more here, like a lot more (Pro-Fetterman ads have like 200 less spots than Pro-Oz ads, which narrows the perceived gap significantly, but still puts him in a bad position.
This combined with 2 polls putting him at 45% should really be cause for concern, and once more, is the case for tossup.
October 1, 2022
Factors heading into the final stretch
(D) John K. Fetterman
Polling: Pure Average D+5.00%, Roling Average D+4.60%
Shapiro will probably win by a margin of between 8-11%
Recent PA Ticket Splttting has resulted in 7.5% ∆s
Mastriano has no campaign infastructure and Oz has little rural appeal beyond what Mastriano applies
(No more than a 1% in margin will be affecter though)
Oz's Favorables are -20% (54% (N)- 34% (P) on Average
Oz Spending advantage narrower when Ad spots are taken into account
at 48% in the FiveThirtyEight, RCP and Personal Average
at 46.80% in Rolling Average
Oz needs to win all the undecideds and then some (Thread)
(R) Mehmet Oz
R+3% State Relative to the nation and the GB will probably be R+2
President Biden (D) is disaprooved of 52% -45% (Per Emerson)
~$11,000,000 Spending advantage (Mostly in SEPA)
SEPA is being saturated with anti-Fetterman Adds and a 4-8% (R) Shift From Biden's Numbers are a likely case because of this
Effectiveness of attacks are shifting towards Oz's Position
Started in a very unfavorable place so there was no where to go but up
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