jlps-10100

الإتفاق النووى بين ايران و دول 5+1 وتأثيره على السياسة الخارجية الإيرانية تجاة الشرق الاوسط

م.د. زمكان علي سليم        

كلية القانون والسياسة-جامعة السليمانية

https://doi.org/10.17656/jlps.10100

Abstract 

This reaserch assesses the impact of the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 on the Islamic Republic’s strategy in the Middle East. It also examins regional security in the post-Iran nuclear deal era. While the deal (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action- JCPA) has been reached with aim of averting a major war in an already volatile region, this study argues that the nuclear deal has the potential for further destabilizing the Middle East by providing the opportunity for the Islamic Republic to continue in pursuing its assertive strategy in the region against the interests of Iran’s regional rivals, including Saudi Arabia and Israel. The research demonstrates that the chance for a change towards moderation in Iran’s foreign policy in the region is slim and the Islamic Republic will not abandon its ambition of attaining regional domination.

الملخص 

تهدف هذه الدراسة الى تقييم و معرفة تأثير الإتفاقية النووية بين ايران و مجموعة 5+1 على مستقبل إستراتيجية طهران الشرق أوسطية و بالتالى على الأمن و الإستقرار الإقليمى. و بينما كان الهدف من الوصول الى الإتفاق النووى ( و المعروفة بخطة العمل المشتركة) هو تفادى الحرب فى منطقة مضطربة فى حد ذاتها, ولكن تشير هذه الدراسة بأنه من المحتمل ان يؤدى الإتفاق الى المزيد من عدم الإستقرار فى الشرق الأوسط و ذلك من خلال منح الجمهورية الإسلامية فرصة مواصلة السعي وراء تحقيق إستراتيجيتها ضد مصالح خصومها فى المنطقة و على رأسهم السعودية و إسرائيل. كذلك تناقش الدراسة بأن فرصة التحول فى السياسة الخارجية الإيرانية نحو الإعتدال ضئيلة و لا يبدو أن الجمهورية الإسلامية فى سبيلها الى التخلي عن طموحاتها لفرض هيمنتها على الشرق الأوسط.

پوختە 

ئامانجی ئەم توێژینەوەیە بریتیە لە هەڵسەنگاندنی كاریگەری ڕێككەوتنامەی ئەتۆمی نێوان ئێران و گروپی 5+1 لەسەر هەریەك لە ستراتیژی هەرێمیی كۆماری ئیسلامی ئێران و هەروەها لەسەر ئاسایاشی ڕۆژهەڵاتی ناوەڕاست. لە كاتێكدا كە ئامانج لە ڕێككەوتنامەكە ( كە ناسراوە بە پلانی كاركردنی هاوبەش) بریتی بووە لە دورخستنەوەی ئەگەری ڕوودانی جەنگ لە ڕۆژهەڵاتی ناوەڕاستدا, بە پێی ئەم توێژینەوەیە ڕێككەوتنامەكە دەكرێت ببێتە هۆكاری ناجێگیری و نا ئارامی زیاتر لە ناوچەكەدا لە رێگەی ئاسانیكاریكردن بۆ كۆماری ئیسلامی بۆ بەردەوامیدان بە ستراتیژی بەدیهێنانی بەرژەوەندییەكانی لەسەر ئاستی هەرێمی و لە دژی ویست و بەرژەوەندییەكانی ڕكابەرە هەرێمییەكانی ئێران, بە تایبەتی سعودییە و ئیسڕائیل. ئەم توێژینەوەیە پێشبینی ئەوە دەكات كە چانسی گۆڕانكاری بەرەو میانڕەوی لە سیاسەتی دەرەوەی ئێراندا زۆر كەمە و كۆماری ئیسلامی بەردەوام دەبێت لە داهاتوودا بۆ بەدیهێنانی ئامانجی هەیمەنە لەسەر ئاستی هەرێمی.

المصادر:

أولا: الكتب 

(1) Donnely, Jack, “Realism”, in Scott Burchill, et al,(eds) Theories of International Relations (3d edn) , (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005). 

(2) Karsh, Efriam , ‘The Iran-Iraq war: 1980-1988’, (UK: Osprey publishing, 2002).

(3) Mearshiemer, John J., Structural Realism, in Tim Dunne, Milja Kurki, Steve Smith, International Relations Theories, Discipline and diversity,( UK, Oxford University Press, 2013). 

(4) Schweller, Randall L., “Neoclassical Realism and state mobilization: expansionist ideology in the age of mass politics”,  in Steven E. Lobell, and Norrin M. Ripsman Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, (US: Cambridge University Press, 2009). 

(5) Taliaferro, Jeffrey, “Introduction: Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy”, in Steven E. Lobell, and Norrin M. Ripsman Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, (US: Cambridge University Press, 2009). 

(6) Wolforth, William C., “Realism and Foreign Policy”, in Smith et al, (eds), ‘Foreign Policy: Theories, Actors, and Cases’, (UK: Oxford University Press, 2012). 

(7) Wolforth, William C., The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions during the Cold War, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993).

(8) Zakaria, Farid, From Wealth to Power: the Unusual Origins of America’s World Role, (US: Princeton University Press: 1998). 

ثانيا : الدراسات و البحوث 

(1) Abedin, Mahan, ‘Domestic Determinants of Iran’s Foreign Policy: Challenges to the Consensus’, Strategic Analysis, Vo.35, No.4, (2011), pp. 613-628.

(2) Abootalebi, Ali, ‘The Struggle for Democracy in the Islamic Republic of Iran’, Middle East review of International Affairs, Vol.4, No.3, (2000), pp. 43-57. 

(3) Anthony H. Cordesman, ‘Iran’s Support of Hizbullah in Lebanon’, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, (2006), available at:  http://www.ecoi.net/file_upload/145646_en_060715_hezbollah.pdf

(4) Birke, Sarah, ‘The Middle East after the Iran Nuclear Deal’, Council on Foreign Relations (2015), available at: http://www.cfr.org/middle-east-and-north-africa/middle-east-after-iran-nuclear-deal/p36963 

(5) Clawson, Patrick, ‘ How Iran’s Gain from A Nuclear Deal Might Affect its Foreign Policy’, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Watch N. 2452, (2015), available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-irans-economic-gain-from-a-nuclear-deal-might-affect-its-foreign-policy 

(6) Cordesman, Anthony H., ‘New Estimates of Iran’s Petroleum Exports and Income after the Nuclear Implementation Day and Reductions in Sanctions’, Center for Strategic & International Studies, (26/01/2016), available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-estimates-iran%E2%80%99s-petroleum-exports-and-income-after-nuclear-implementation-day-and-0

(7) Cordesman, Anthony H., ‘The Arab–U.S. Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf’, Center for Strategic and International Studies, (13 July 2015), https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/150713_Cover_and__Report%20_Gulf_Military_Balance_2015.pdf

(8) Crane Keith, et al (eds), ‘Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities’, RAND, (2009), pp. 19-23, available at: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG693.pdf

(9) David D. Kirakpatricik, ‘Kerry Says U.S. Knew of Iran’s Military Aid to Houthi Rebels’, The Wall Street Journal, (19/04/2015), available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/10/world/middleeast/kerry-us-iran-military-aid-houthi-yemen.html?_r=0

(10) Eisenstadt, Michael, ‘The Nuclear Deal with Iran: Regional Implications’, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, (2015), available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/testimony/EisenstadtTestimony20150729.pdf

(11) Eisenstadt, Michael, Simon Henderson, Michael Knights, Matthew Levitt, and Andrew J. Tabler, ‘ The Regional Impact of Additional Iranian Money ’, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Watch N. 2456, (2015), available at:  http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-regional-impact-of-additional-iranian-moneyy 

(12) Frederic Wehrey, David E. Thaler, Nora Bensahel,  Kim Cragin, Jerrold D. Green, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Nadia Oweidat , ‘Dangerous But Not Omnipotent: Explaining Iran’s the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East’, RAND, (2009),p. 39, available at: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG781.pdf

(13) Ghessiari Ali & Nasir, Vali, ‘Iran’s Democracy Debate’, Middle East Policy, Vo. XI, No. 2,( 2004), pp. 94-106. 

(14) Hafez, Pariasa, ‘Rouhani Says Iran Not a Threat, Wants Interaction with the World’, Reuters, (07\052016), available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-rouhani-moderation-idUSKCN0X40IO  

(15) Hani Zainulbahi & Richard Wike, ‘ Iran’s Global Image Mostly Negative’, (18/06/2015), Power Research Centre, available at: 

http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/18/irans-global-image-mostly-negative/

(16) Hoeesin S. Seifzadeh, ‘The Landscape of Factional Politics in Iran and its Future in Iran’, The Middle East Journal, Vol. 57, No.1,(2003), p.58. 

(17) Jerrold D. Green, Frederic Wehrey, Charles Wolf, ‘Understanding Iran’, RAND, (2009), pp. 10-14, available at: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG771.pdf

(18) Maloney, Suzanne, ‘ Why Rouhani Won and Why Khamenei Let Him’, Foreign Affairs, (2013), available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2013-06-16/why-rouhani-won-and-why-khamenei-let-him 

(19) Matthew Levitt, ‘ A Proxy for Iran’, The Washington Institute, (2016), available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/a-proxy-for-iran

(20) Michael Wahid Hanna & Dalia Dassa Kaye, ‘The Limits of Iranian Power’, Survival, Vo.57, No. 5, (2015), pp. 173-198.

(21) Nadimi, Farzin, ‘Iran’s Afghan and Pakistani Proxies: in Syria and Beyond’, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, (22/08/2016), available at: file:///C:/Users/Laptop/Downloads/irans-afghan-and-pakistani-proxies-in-syria-and-beyond.pdf 

(22) Nadir, Alireza, ‘The Day After the Deal With Iran: Continuity and Change in Iranian Foreign Policy’, RAND, (2014), p. 3-4, available: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE100/PE124/RAND_PE124.pdf

(23) Parent, Josef M. & Rosatom, Sebastian, ‘Balancing in Neorealism’, ‘International Security’, Vo. 40, No. 2, (2015), pp. 51-86. 

(24) Rizvi, M. Mahtab Alam, ‘Moderates Strike Back in Iran: Imperatives for International Community’, Strategic Analysis, Vol. 40, No. 44, (2016), pp. 239-2451. 

(25) Rose, Gideon,‘Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy’, World Politics, Vol.51, No.1, (1998), pp.144-172. 

(26) Rozen, Lura, ‘Iran Shifts on Syria’, (15/7/2016), Al-Monitor, available at: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/iran-shift-syria-diplomats-press-obama-assad.html 

(27) Sabet, Farzan, ‘The Rouhani Presidency at Three’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, (18/08/2016), available at: http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/64356 

(28) Taliaferro, Jeffrey W., Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited, ‘International Security’, Vol. 25, No. 3, (2000-2001), pp. 128-144. 

(29) Terril, W. Andrew, ‘Iran’s Strategy for Saving Assad’, The Middle East Journal, Vol. 69, No.2, (2015), pp. 222-236. 

(30) The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), ‘The Military Balance 2015’, (Abingdon: Rutledge for the IISS,2015), p. 329.

(31) University of Maryland, ‘Iranian Public Opinion, One Year After the Nuclear Deal’, Centre for International & Security Studies, (July 2016), available at: http://www.cissm.umd.edu/publications/iranian-public-opinion-one-year-after-nuclear-deal-0  

(32) Zarif, Muhammad Javad, ‘What Does Iran Really Want?’, Foreign Affairs, Vo.93, No.3, (2014), pp.40-48.

ثالثا: التقارير 

(1) International Monitory Fund, ‘Iran- Achieving its Potential in the Global Economy’, Reports, (17/05/2016), available at: https://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2016/051716.htm

(2) International Monitory Fund, ‘Islamic Republic of Iran’, IMF Country Report No. 15/349, (December 2015), available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15349.pdf 

(3) Syrian Economic Forum, ‘Implication of the Syrian War for the Iranian Economy’, (2015), p.3, available at: http://www.syrianef.org/En/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/english.pdf

(4) The World Bank, ‘Iran’s Economic Outlook, Spring 2016’, (2016), available: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/publication/economic-outlook-spring-2016

Full Text

       Copyright (c) 2016 : The Author, published by University of Sulaimani, College of Law.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.