High Stakes Behind PA's Supreme Court Retention

An incredibly important election is taking place in Pennsylvania this fall. On November 4th, three Democratic State Supreme Court Justices are running for retention. This means they are running for another ten-year position as justices. A retention election is simply a chance for voters to say yes or no to extend a justice's time in the court. This year’s retention election could strongly affect the outcome of the 2027 and 2028 elections.

Although Supreme Court justices are initially elected in partisan races, the ballot omits party affiliations for this type of election. Instead, voters simply have to choose to either retain or fire the three candidates. Historically, retention has been overwhelmingly favored in these elections. Since the retention system was established in 1968, only one candidate has ever been deposed. However, this year, there has been a strong push by conservative activists to oust the justices. “Vote No” pamphlets have been continuously popping up in mailboxes and on doorsteps across the state in an unusually aggressive MAGA campaign that could conceivably have dire consequences for Democrats in later elections. While judiciary retention elections are traditionally quiet and inconsequential, this year's wave of anti-retention messaging and spending departs strikingly from the precedent.

The three candidates running in this November's election are Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht. They are all Democratic State Supreme Court judges with similar beliefs and goals. They are all pro-choice and have spent much of their current terms in office fighting for fair abortion access. The three candidates are also very involved in education and have advocated for school funding in their districts. Importantly, their campaigns focus on mental health treatment accessibility, support for neurodivergent people and their families, and the rights of voters.

So, that leaves the question: how will the election results affect Pennsylvania?

Democrats currently hold a 5-2 majority in the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania. However, if conservatives succeed in firing Wecht, Dougherty, and Donohue, there will likely be an even 2-2 split in opinion until 2027, when a regular election will fill the vacancies. This would be the ideal moment for Republicans to attempt to flip the court for the first time since 2015. Holding the majority in the 2028 presidential election could give conservatives greater say over issues such as voting rights and provisional ballots. With Republicans controlling the courts, the election results could shift unfavorably for Democrats. 

In short, this retention election is significant for Pennsylvania and the nation as a whole. Because of it, money has been pouring in from all sides. The “Yes” campaign, led by Democrats statewide and nationwide, has already spent $5 million and is expected to spend more than $10 million by its end. This technically “small” election in PA could be a major factor in the outcome of the next presidential election. The loss of this election could be catastrophic for the losing party.