The War in Ukraine: Phase 1

On February 21st, Vladimir Putin, in a televised address, declared the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic independent from Ukraine. For months before, a large army of Russian vehicles and troops massed around the Eastern border of Ukraine, along with a significant Russian presence in Belarus. He claimed that Russian soldiers would proceed to enter the two newly independent regions as “peacekeepers.” Three days later, the war in Ukraine began with the first Russian troops moving into Ukraine, exploding the world into turmoil. Unlike Russia’s invasion of the Chimera, where they attempted to keep it secret using unmarked forces, Russia’s military invaded Ukraine with a large Z painted on their vehicles.

Russia’s initial movement in Ukraine indicated a Blitzkrieg manner similar to what the Germans did in the Second World War, attempting to seize the capital of Kyiv. Their first goal was to establish safe areas to ship in troops and disrupt Ukrainian command. Hours into the invasion, Russia targeted and destroyed command centers in the Nizhyn Airfield. Additionally, Russia sent an airborne division (VDV) to capture the Hostomel Airport; however, this failed horribly for the Russians. Their elite airborne troops suffered heavy casualties and were almost completely wiped out in the battle. The war for Ukraine would prove to be more challenging than Russia predicted. Many of their forces face stiff resistance against the Ukrainian troops, armed with modern weapons. One of which, the Javelin Anti-Tank Missile system, would prove to be helpful to the Ukrainian soldiers and a thorn to the Russian Armor. On the day of the invasion, the Ukraine Joint Forces Command claimed to destroy 15 T-72 Russian tanks with these weapons. On the contrary, Russia’s long-range missiles and artillery have proven deadly adversaries. Russia has used these weapons increasingly to level cities and areas they believe to house military targets. However, as images from Ukraine show, these weapons hit civilians, children, and hospitals. Moreover, they have the power to level cities, as seen in Mariupol, where the city has been reduced to ruins. Despite Russia's overwhelming firepower, they were unable to take the capital of Kyiv. Russia’s troops in the 40-mile convoy could not take the capital, and they moved away from Kyiv. However, they continue to pummel the city and the cities around it with occasional missile strikes. Strikes on Lviv also intensified, along with the concerns of NATO involvement in the war and the possibility of World War III. The closest Russian strikes hit only 15 miles from the border of Poland, a NATO member state. Article V of the NATO treaty dictates an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO members. A slight miscalculation can cause the activation of NATO’s Article V, leading to a possible World War III. Kyiv continues to stand, but Russia claims that its actual primary goal was to capture the liberate the Eastern and Southern portions of Ukraine, but why the focus on Eastern Ukraine?

Russia claims that the Eastern part of Ukraine is the primary goal of their invasion. However, when looking at the number of forces deployed in the region, it is a probable reality that they truly only wanted East Ukraine. After all, Ukraine’s eastern region contains large amounts of oil reserves that would threaten Russia’s monopoly of supplying Europe with oil if fully utilized by Ukraine. Additionally, capturing Eastern Ukraine would lead to the rest of Ukraine being landlocked, severing its access to the Black Sea. Finally, one of the more significant reasons for capturing the east is restoring water to the captured Chimera. Following its invasion in 2014, Ukraine built a dam blocking the freshwater supply of the Chimera, forcing Russia to spend millions of dollars to supply the land with its much-needed water. Once the dam was destroyed, the freshwater flow from the Dnieper river was restored, and the Chimera was again hydrated.

The fighting in the east is the most intense, with forces being focused on two main cities, Mariupol and Odessa. Odessa was deserted in fear of a Russian invasion. It being a port city, it is considered necessary to the Russian Military as an area to send resupply ships. Additionally, it is notable to mention Russia's flagship in the Black Sea, the Moskova sunk. Ukraine claims that it sank the battleship with two missile strikes. On the other hand, Russia claims that the ship was lost due to the stormy seas and high waves. As of now, we have no confirmation of what is true and what is false, as this is he said, she said event. However, there is no denying that this is a massive loss for Russia, along with it being the largest naval loss since the end of the Second World War. As of now, resistance in Mariupol has weakened, with Russia declaring it to be captured completely. In the besieged city, there lays a steel plant that houses hundreds of civilians and the far-right Azov Battalion. Russian troops surrounded the plant, and after weeks under the Russian encirclement, the civilians were finally able to evacuate. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian troops remained, providing formidable resistance to the Russians. Despite this as of May 17, the troops in Maripol has surrendered

The Russians are continuing to move their forces away from Kyiv back east. As Ukrainian troops move to regain the territories occupied by the Russians, they discover horrendous crimes committed by the Russian invaders. In Bucha alone, 278 dead bodies were found. Additionally, the people sheltering in these areas report mass executions, rapes, beatings, and torture, all done by the invading Russian force. These stories are not a single instance found only in Bucha, but in all the towns once occupied by Russia, evidence of these crimes against humanity can be seen. All the citizens share the same story—Russian soldiers being murderous, ravenous occupiers. Kyiv is calling for the international criminal court to press charges, while the U.S is also aiding in this effort. U.S aid in any area is critical for Ukraine; while they could not provide the no-fly zone over Ukraine, which Zelensky was urging for, they offered Ukraine valuable weapons and even more valuable information. This information includes satellite images, troop locations, and locations of key Russian leaders. With this information, Ukraine was able to kill seven key Russian generals and lieutenants. Western aid is vital for Ukraine to stay in the war effort, with the U.S ramping up weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

Russia says phase one of their invasion is complete, and phase two is to begin. We can expect an increase in the intensity of the war. Putin has assigned a new general to lead his war effort in Ukraine, General Dvornikov—the same general who helped Russia turn the tide in Syria and achieve victory. Dvornikov has a horrifying track record of attacking civilian targets to gain momentum, earning him the name The Butcher Of Syria, a name given to him by the Syrian troops fighting against him. Him taking the helm may make the war even more brutal than it already is. Putin is willing to do anything to win in Ukraine. His invasion was a gamble, one where despite Ukraine’s victories, he still has the upper hand, an upper hand consisting of 4,477 ace cards. His nuclear arsenal, being the largest globally, provides Russia with a decisive advantage. Putin has constantly flaunted his nuclear arsenal in many tests and parades. He continually threatens the West with nuclear war for aiding Ukraine. If Putin’s forces begin to take massive defeats and are pushed back, he may likely deploy a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. As to him, it seems unlikely that NATO would retalliate with a nuclear strike due to Ukraine not being a member nation. The Ukraine war was a conflict decades in the making, one that finally erupted, harboring massive consequences for the Ukrainian people, the Russian people, and the global community.