The thunder has been checked. Its fury beaten down and broken like a wave upon a shoreline. The Russian storm once thought of as an indomitable, unstoppable, merciless force has been broken under the weight of its lies of strength and invincibility. The people of Ukraine have turned the tide against the aggressor. 

But now here at home aid has begun to sour. Even as the US-backed Ukraine launches a counteroffensive against Putin's army the average American does not seem to care anymore. 

With questions being raised about the amount of money and resources being sent to the young nation, things at home seem just as tenuous. Meanwhile, as the winter begins and the fires cool many questions remain: Why did Russia fail in its assault? What happens now that the tide has turned? And what is America’s next step during this crisis?

Old Tactics, New War

When the initial military buildup along the Ukrainian border began there was a shared belief among the majority of people that it would be a quick armored punch into Ukraine that would destroy the young republic in a week. A few days into the invasion however Russian forces encountered a crippling problem. 

Since the beginning of the Second World War Russian military doctrine has been centered around a mass mechanized infantry assault supported by mass artillery bombardment. These tactics were indeed effective against the poorly supplied and surrounded German army of the Second World War but the Russian armed forces did not account for changing times and a more modernized force. 

When the first Russian invasion of Crimea occurred back in 2014 the Ukrainian military was a corrupt, unorganized, and untrained force that was steamrolled by the better-equipped Russian armored fist. 

But unlike the Russians, the Ukrainian military has not sat idle, retraining their forces with a NATO-based doctrine. According to Foreign Policy Ukraine's crippling defeat and loss of the Crimea and Donbas regions back in 2014 was the main push behind their rapid change in Battlefield tactics, Military spending, and a renewed focus on the defense of Ukraine. 

However, Russia's failure is not only because of outdated doctrine or the better-prepared Ukrainians. It is the fault of one of Russia's greatest curses. Corruption. Since the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of Vladimir Putin  Russia has suffered from serious corruption problems, especially among its military logistics officers. According to US News when Putin called for hundreds of thousands of new soldiers to be sent to the front, many recruiters fudged numbers, and supply officers who manage vehicle depots also lied about how many operable vehicles they have. This issue has been a constant in Russia since before the fall of the Soviet Union. According to Transparency International Russia received a 30 out of 100 on their CPI or Corruption Perceptions Index. 

This corruption epidemic has not only affected troop numbers but also vehicles and equipment. Not only with numbers but also with quality. Most Russian manufacturers and Logistics officers are well known for cutting corners to embezzle government funding all at the cost of the common soldier's safety  

Newly conscripted men have been shown using old weapons from as far back as the Second World War. Most notably the Mosin Nagant a rifle designed and first produced in 1891 has been seen often in the hands of many Russian conscripts in Ukraine. 

Not only that but according to The Guardian many of the newest conscripts were told to buy their gear such as boots and medical supplies because the Russian army could not properly supply their soldiers. Many of these supply issues are failures of the PUSH system along with the general incompetence and corruption that is prevalent in the Russian government. 

A War of Willpower

Since the start of the Russian invasion, the entire western world has united against Russia, levying sanctions and providing Ukraine with aid. But despite the global perception of a united evil Russian empire. Many Russians protest the war and speak out against it. One of the largest groups is the Russian army itself. 

One of the biggest social media trends to come out of the war in Ukraine is the smartphone videos depicting the horrible conditions of the newly raised wave of Russian conscripts. Most of these videos come from the conscripts themselves. More often than not these men are sent into war untrained and underequipped. 

An even more compelling reason behind Russia's devastating morale problems  

“I think that the majority of the Russian people and Russian soldiers aren’t into this. Like they don’t see the value of it and are not willing to put themselves on the line for a war they don’t believe in” said NHS History and Civics Teacher Molly Uppenkamp.

Another factor that would further divide Russian forces is that according to the Washington Post, an estimated 11 million Russians have relatives in Ukraine. It is reasonable to think that at least some of these 11 million people have been pressed into military service which would only cause further morale issues 

While Russian morale continues to dive as the war drags on, the Kremlin has begun to turn to more desperate tactics. According to Voice of America and the British defense Ministry, the Russian high command has begun deploying “barrier or blocking units” to prevent frontline units from retreating through the threat of execution. 

There have also been reports of Russian commanders being ordered to defend positions to the death. 

According to the British Defense Ministry, “These tactics attest to the low quality, low morale, and indiscipline of Russian forces.”

Another aspect of the Russian force's low morale is who is being brought to the frontline. When Vladimir Putin called for a “Partial Mobilization” in Russia it not only affected native Russians but also people in areas that Russia conquered back in 2014. 

According to an article from the International Business Times, fighting-age Ukrainian men in the Donbas and Crimean peninsula have been handed draft notices from the Russian government. Over 1,500 draft notices were being given out in Crimea alone specifically targeting the local Crimean Tartar peoples who live in the region. 

Not only has this led to an even further dive in morale amongst Russian forces but also several mutinies among both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers as the Ukrainian offensive drags on. 

Another factor that has been hammering Russian morale is the loss of key cities like Kherson and Lyman and the push toward the key city of Donetsk.  This has put immense pressure on the already beleaguered and defeated Russian army to hold what ground they have. 

What makes this situation worse is the coming winter which according to an article from the New York Times will stall operations on both sides and make supply even more difficult for already strained Russians. Both sides will likely use this temporary lull to build up their battered forces and prepare for the inevitable Spring offensives. 

However, another symptom of the coming winter calls for a cease-fire

“ In an ideal world, Vladimir Putin just dies tomorrow, Russia collapses as it is, and the fighting stops. Because war is horrible and this needs to end” said NHS Senior Jack Brady 

And he is not alone. 

However, this is unlikely because a cease-fire would heavily benefit the Russian army giving them ample time to regroup, retrain, and Requip their soldiers. 

Because of this, even a temporary end seems improbable as of this moment. 

Upcoming: Part 2, The cost of lies