The Cost of Lies 

From the beginning of the military buildup around the Ukrainian border, the majority of outside observers believed that the Russian juggernaut would sweep into Ukraine and quickly take the nation over in a matter of days. 

But why didn’t this happen? 

After all, the Russian army and airforce are considered to be second only to the United States. 

However, this was all a carefully constructed illusion designed to keep Russia out of an armed conflict in the first place. 

Two of the focal points of the false Russian giant are its supposedly formidable armored core and devastating use of air superiority tactics. 

Russia’s armored core is centered around the most famed weapon of war: the tank. Since the Second World War, the Russian army has relied on a heavy-ground armored base for supporting infantry and exploiting breakthroughs in enemy lines. It was believed that this armored fist would crush any Ukrainian resistance easily. 

This is untrue as according to Ukrainska Pravda or Ukrainian Truth, Russia has lost over 2,924 tanks and over 5,900 armored personnel carriers since the beginning of the invasion. 

Another falsehood peddled by the Russian military was the superiority of their new modern tank models, specifically the T-90 and the new T-14 Armata. 

Complete with modern infrared systems, an unmanned main turret, and a toilet for the crew, The Armata was designed to be the ultimate armored killing machine. However, despite being Russia's armored ace in the hole it has not seen any action in Ukraine, and very few, if any are currently being produced with the Kremlin citing issues with the cost of maintenance and repairs. And while it has been showcased on the parade ground it has not left the experimental stages. 

The T-90 meanwhile is a battle-tested and reliable battle tank being used by the Russian army since 1992. However, most of these modern T-90s have been destroyed, captured, or disabled in Ukraine and so the Russian army has turned to older Cold War models to deal with the massive hit to the Russian armor fleet. 

Unfortunately for Putin's armored core, many of these models are unusable mostly because of their age and the amount of time they have spent in storage. According to the Kyiv Independent, over 2,299 Russian tanks are unusable due to old age. 

Another aspect of Russia's failed invasion is its lack of a strong air force. One of the most surprising aspects of the Russian invasion was how one of the largest and supposedly most advanced air forces in the world failed to gain air superiority over Ukrainian air space. 

There are several factors behind this failure but one of the biggest reasons is the lack of adequate training. Due to the extreme cost of training competent fighter pilots, many Russian pilots are sent into war with little to no training much like their conscript counterparts. 

Considering how complicated modern fighter planes are the lack of good pilots can make the difference.

Another reason is a lack of modern weaponry specifically guided missiles.

The clear advantage of having guided munitions is that it removes the difficulty of a pilot having to manually aim his ordinance on top of maneuvering his aircraft.  Unlike their NATO counterparts, most Russian pilots, if they are trained usually never learn how to use guided munitions. This is due to the cost of building or purchasing guided computerized missiles. 

This puts Russian planes at a significant disadvantage against the better-equipped and better-trained Ukrainian pilots and Ukrainian anti-air weapons which also use proper guided munitions against Russian aircraft. 

But the biggest reason behind Russia's failed air war is the lack of actual air power present. Despite being a vital component of modern warfare the Russian military once again that overestimation of one's forces is crippling

According to War on the Rocks, the Russian airforce's main issue is the lack of an actual air campaign. Because of the false perception of a swift week-long Russian victory over Ukraine, there was little to no preplanning of any extensive air campaign. And so the initial Russian push was not supported by a significant air presence. This is one of the main reasons behind Ukrainian success. They still maintain a strong hold on the air over the battlefield. While Russian air sorties are beginning to ramp up, however, it is likely too little too late as Russia's poorly equipped and trained pilots deal with better-equipped Ukrainian anti-air measures. 

While the Russian high command continues to try and pick up the still burning pieces of their failures as the empire of illusion falls around them their most hated rivals continue to play their part 

Of Minds Unfettered In Deliberation 

Ever since the first Russian invasion of Ukraine back in 2014 the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, also known as NATO has been in Ukraine's corner encouraging democracy and inviting Ukraine to Join NATO back in 2008. But as of now, NATO has done its best to avoid outright conflict. 

According to ABC news, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg fears that the conflict could expand. 

“There is no doubt that a full-fledged war is a possibility,” said Stoltenberg in an interview with Norwegian broadcaster NRK. 

It's clear based on this interview and NATO’s actions since the war began that the priority was to avoid war with Russia while providing Ukraine with as much support as possible. 

NATO, according to the New York Times, continues to give roughly 40 billion dollars in aid to the young democracy.  Much of this aid is in the form of weapons both old and new being sent to the embattled nation from countries all over Europe. 

Even nations like Germany who have had long bans on exporting military aid to other countries lifted their ban to support Ukraine by sending anti-air and anti-armor systems. The war in Ukraine has even led to changes to the traditionally neutral German government. According to The Atlantic German Chancellor Olaf Scholz notably wished to add 100 billion euros to the German defense budget in response to continued Russian aggression.

Despite this, many in the German government are against sending military aid to Ukraine, especially sending tanks to Ukrainian forces. This is out of a fear that if Germany further supports Ukraine, Russia will turn its gaze upon the German people. This fear has split the German parliament and has brought questions to Germany's place in Europe. 

However not every NATO country is as fearful of the Russian response as Germany and more than one NATO nation has criticized the German government for its hesitance to fully commit. 

The loudest among these voices is Poland, particularly from Poland’s National Conservative party leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski. 

According to an article for the Associated Press, many in the Polish government and among the Polish population are unsatisfied with Germany’s contribution to the Ukrainian war effort. In an incident revolving around the placement of three Patriot Antimissle systems in Poland, Kaczynski requested that Germany send these weapon platforms to Ukraine instead. When Germany refused, Poland refused in kind. 

Furthermore, massive amounts of Anti-German rhetoric flooded out of the National Conservative party, and the stalemate of indecision in the German parliament threatens to rip the divide between the two nations even wider. 

This split between the two NATO nations has existed ever since the end of the Second World War. Poland has not forgotten the brutality it suffered under both German and Russian regimes. It explains their fanatical support of Ukraine and their cold criticism of German hesitance. 

Besides the divide between the Polish and Germans, a recent incident put the entire western alliance into a temporary panic. 

On November 15 an unknown missile hit a Polish farm near the village of Przewodow which is 4 miles from the Ukrainian border. According to the New York Post, this incident killed Boguslaw Wos a 62-year-old-grain silo foreman, and Bogdan Ciupek a 60-year old-tractor operator who both lived in the area. 

This incident put world leaders on high alert and an immediate investigation was launched by Polish authorities into the intention of this strike. Thankfully it was discovered to be an accidental strike likely sent by a Su-300 missile system which is used by both Ukrainian and Russian forces extensively. 

According to the Guardian, both NATO and Polish authorities have determined the missile to be Ukrainian in origin and reaffirmed its accidental nature. 

“Let me be clear this is not Ukraine's fault,” Jens Stoltenberg said after being questioned on the missile strike. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility for their illegal war against Ukraine.”

But despite the fear caused by the missile incident fading away, the old fear of possible nuclear armaments remains. 

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, there has been a fear of a possible Nuclear strike by Russia. Russia has often flaunted its vast 4,500-strong nuclear missile fleet and has used it as the main deterrent against any real NATO military intervention. There have also been fears of a Russian preemptive strike doctrine which, according to the Associated Press, Vladimir Putin has not ruled out of the military playbook. This has caused quite a stir among the west as well as the United States though many senior defense officials think little of it 

“He doesn’t quite say we’re going to launch nuclear weapons, but he wants the dialogue in the U.S. and Europe to be, ’The longer this war goes on, the greater the threat of nuclear weapons might be used,” John Erath, a Senior policy director at the Center For Arms Control said in response to the Russian threat. 

While Putin has expressed that a first strike is not off the table he also expressed that as of now Russia still utilizes a first response system a system which is based around Russia being shot at first rather than shooting first. 

However, despite assurances from the Federation, there is little love or trust between east and west at the moment as both sides face each other stonefaced waiting for the other to blink. All the while however NATO faces another internal issue coming from its most powerful member

Is this our War?

Since 2014 the United States has officially backed the Ukrainian Republic against Russian aggression. The US has also been the largest supplier of weaponry to Ukrainian forces. According to an official release from the Department of Defense the United States dedicated 18.2 billion dollars toward Ukrainian defense. 

However, while the giant supply a foreign nation with billions of dollars, rising inflation at home and general division amongst the American public has drawn attention away from the war abroad. 

“I mean respectfully I just don’t think Americans care that much anymore,” said NHS senior Joe Greene 

“It started as a political thing about defending the freedoms of the people of Ukraine. But we haven’t done anything and the media is potentially shifting away from it and we don’t seem to care anymore” he said.

In general, it seems that there is a decrease in interest or even want to help Ukraine and the already preexisting political divisions only serve to turn the giant's eyes away from the young nation at war. 

“I think there are two camps: There’s a camp that says Russia is a rogue nation attacking the sovereignty of Ukraine; that we must defend Ukrainians' rights to exist, and that this war is unprovoked and illegal,” said NHS History teacher, Jeffrey Loja.

Furthermore, taxpayers are growing weary. 

“And I think there is another camp of Americans looking at it from the taxpayer perspective that the billions of dollars we have sent over there will not be worth it and the long-term taxpayer commitment is going to be far too high,” said Loja 

 And the political situation in the Legislative branch is not going to improve things.

“There is going to be a debate emerging over this and with the Republicans taking the house I think in the coming year you're going to see a lot more pushback with the amount of funding we send to Ukraine,” he said.

This division over party lines is further shown by an article by the Pew Research Center in which over 32% of Republican-aligned Americans in 2022 believe that we have spent far too much money in Ukraine and our efforts need to be dialed back. This interest in dialing back military aid could affect not only our efforts but NATO’s as well. 

According to World Population Review, the United States spends $800,000 more than the second-ranking country, the United Kingdom, which spends only $72,762 on NATO. What this means is that nations like Germany who are already divided on supporting Ukraine may follow the United States if they decide to pull support or even cut back on support. 

And even further pushing problems for the young democracy is the current administration in the White House. While President Joe Biden's pledging of support has been crucial to supporting efforts, his approval rating according to FiveThirtyEight, has gone down significantly with over 51.9 percent of Americans disapproving of his work as a leader. This, along with Republican candidates winning the House could see a tide shift in American aid

As the fighting begins to slow with the first snowfalls, everything seems out of balance. While the Russian paper Bear has been set ablaze, the true nature of its potential defeat and what it is still willing to do to prevent it are still up in the air. And with division, both within the US and NATO, Ukraine's future is still uncertain as the wheel of war pushes onward into the bloody winter ahead.