Technology Progression

The table below depicts five examples of TL progression: accelerated, fast, medium, slow, and retarded. Each has a set of “typical” start dates for TL9+ technologies, from the perspective of a present-day terrestrial human baseline in which TL8 began around 1980. These progressions can easily be adapted to other start dates for alien or alternate history cultures.

Accelerated progression is extremely fast, in keeping with some optimistic futurist or transhumanist speculations. At this speed, humans will reach TL12 before we can do much in the way of colonizing the universe. Perhaps we won’t even bother, if the “inner space” of nanotechnology and virtual reality provides everything we need.

Fast progression is an optimistic pace of development which recognizes that societies take some time to assimilate technologies. It assumes that the pace of invention begins to flag as certain fundamental physical limits are approached; it’s harder to play with atomic or subatomic technologies.

Medium progression could result from “bumps in the road” such as wars or disasters, or the influence of political movements or religious orthodoxy that impose a cautious approach to the sciences. This provides plenty of time for humanity to establish interstellar colonies or change society drastically without progressing beyond TL10.

Slow progression might be the result of multiple wars, resource exhaustion, or powerful anti-technology movements that put the brakes on progress. A slowly developing society may have organizations devoted to controlling “dangerous” technology.

Retarded progression usually stems from technological stagnation, often in conjunction with a Dark Age that causes a major decline or fall of civilization. This gives plenty of time for interstellar empires to be established without technology changing humanity beyond recognition, and pushes the development of TL12 civilization into the very far future.

Other options can also exist. A civilization could reach a particular TL plateau and then freeze or regress due to cataclysmic events or social changes. A society might be stymied by physical limits, such as one that develops underwater or on a world with few metals. Societies could also take a path where the main TL remained constant, but where steady progress was made in superscience, or even in psionics or magic.