Resorting to labor immigration is inevitable

Link to the version available through Le Monde.fr

France's natural demographic balance, the surplus of births over deaths that is, fell to 56,000 in 2022, its lowest level since 1945. One reason for this is the downward trend in the fertility rate. But even if this decline is halted, the excess will gradually narrow until it becomes negative in about a dozen years. Even though France is experiencing the impact with a delay, it is by no means exempt from demographic aging to which all developed countries are exposed. But unlike others, France is in denial about its consequences. These are twofold: A rapidly increasing burden on the working population, and a need for labor that can only be met by immigration. These two issues are at the heart of political debates currently shaking the country.

Collapsing fertility rates in southern and eastern Europe generate negative annual demographic balances of 2-3 million. Demographic aging there is far more pronounced than in France, long preserved by its vigorous birth rate. Even so, the median age – which divides a population into two equal parts – has risen from 32 in 1985 to 42 today. As a result, the demographic dependency ratio, which expresses the burden of the elderly on the working population, is deteriorating rapidly.

One measure of this is the ratio between the population leaving the workforce (aged over 62, which is the average age observed for such an exit) and those between 22 (the average age of entry) and 62. Close to 36% in 2001, this ratio reached 51% in 2021, and, all things being equal, it is seen rising to 66.5% in 2041. This represents an 85% increase in the course of two generations.

Demand for manpower is part of the everyday reality for an economy struggling to recruit and fill job vacancies. These were estimated at 350,000 in the first quarter of 2023, up 70% from before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Structural challenge

Called upon by French President Emmanuel Macron to reflect on France's three long-term structural challenges, economists Olivier Blanchard and Jean Tirole – both at the head of an international commission – flagged demographics alongside climate change and economic inequality. Their report, published in 2021, pointed to the early retirement age in France in relation to comparable countries and advocated reform of the pension system. It also looked at the role of immigration, highlighting a lower employment rate among the immigrant population, particularly women, than among non-immigrants: 45 % of immigrant women of non-European origin are unemployed or not looking for work. The reasons for this lower employment rate are diverse: Low qualifications, cultural or religious factors, and hiring discrimination.

Beyond the importance of public policies aimed at better integrating this immigrant population into the world of work, the question of immigration is increasingly urgent. In developed countries, migration has become the primary factor in population growth. France is no exception to this trend, but contrary to a widespread myth, immigration is not massive compared to other developed countries. With an annual immigration flow of 0.4% of its population, France lags behind Germany (0.7%) and Spain (0.9%).

Furthermore, France is a country of emigration: Something unthought of and absent from the national debate. For demographer Hervé Le Bras, the "magic word" of expatriation allows to consider this migration as temporary. But that does not correspond to reality. The temporary nature of expatriation concerns only a minority of the 2.5 million French considered expatriates, while a majority, significantly more qualified on average than the French population, settle in their country of emigration. From 2014 until the Covid-19 pandemic, the annual balance of the emigration flow was around 160.000, compared with a balance of just over 200.000, over the same period, for the immigration flow.

Denial

The painful process of raising the retirement age has made any new move to align our system with that of our European neighbors unlikely during this presidential term. Demographic aging pressure will, however, continue with a view to increasing the length of working life and employment rates. For that matter, resorting to labor immigration is inevitable. This will lead to revising policies to attract more qualified and diversified immigration by improving the reception of skilled immigrants, taking account of diplomas, and defining objective admission criteria. Other countries, such as Germany, are taking on the role of immigration country.

France's relatively steady birth rate has long encouraged a posture of denial, marked by a double rejection of both longer working lives and immigration. However, to preserve our equilibrium and avoid a downward spiral of impoverishment, we need to face up to the fact that the only option for France is to draw inspiration from the policies of major countries comparable to our own, by extending working life and renewing our vocation of a country open to foreigners. The immigration bill currently being drafted is an invitation to move beyond "sad passions"[a term used by the 17th-century Dutch philosopher Baruch Spinoza to refer to negative emotions such as hatred, fear, anger, lies and violence] and address, with reason, the inescapable consequences of demographic tectonics, so as not to handicap ourselves by falling behind in this crucial area.