'In developed countries, migration is now the primary driver of population growth

'In developed countries, migration is now the primary driver of population growth'

Op-Ed, Published on August 1, 2022, at 12:51 pm (Paris)

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Findings from a new UN report on world population must be integrated into public policy in terms of sustainable development, climate change and immigration, says former diplomat Pierre Buhler.

In November 2022, the human population will pass the 8 billion mark. This is one of the conclusions of a recent study by the United Nation's (UN) population division. The previous symbolic threshold, 7 billion, was crossed in October 2011. The next one, passing 9 billion, is expected in about 15 years.

Aside from these announcements, this biennial report – headed up by French demographer Patrick Gerland, in a discreet tribute to the renowned French school of demography – reveals major trends that are imperceptibly transforming the demographic map of the planet and its geopolitical landscape.

First, the report confirms that the 21st century will not only be, in accordance with Alfred Sauvy's prophecy, "the century of demographic aging" – it will also be, in the words of demographer Hervé Le Bras, "the age of migration." While these two phenomena have been a constant in the history of mankind, the proportion of the population affected, for diverse reasons, has not stopped increasing

Different countries, different situations

The report makes it clear that in developed countries migration is now the primary driver of population growth. While between 1980 and the year 2000, natural growth of 104 million far exceeded the net contribution of international migration (44 million), this ratio was reversed in the 20 years that followed. During this period, migration's input almost doubled (81 million), far outpacing natural growth (66 million).

The report also demonstrates that migration will be the only path in the future for developed countries to make up for the already negative natural demographic balance. Europe is the most affected by this trend – its natural growth deficit, of nearly 1 million in the year prior to the Covid-19 epidemic, is likely to remain permanently on a downward trajectory, which can only be offset by migration (1.4 million in 2021).

The situation does vary from country to country. France has maintained low natural population growth, but this is not the case in Germany and Italy, which are more affected by aging and low fertility rates. But while Germany is largely compensating for its deficit through immigration, Italy's population, with its low net migration, is decreasing year upon year.

Critical issue in Eastern Europe

The situation is even more critical in Eastern Europe – Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia risk having a population loss of more than 20% by 2050. This situation is also found in other countries which are either not very open to migration, or not very attractive to migrants. The population of Japan, where the median age is the highest in the world at nearly 49, is shrinking by 750,000 a year – resulting in a decline of about 16% in the space of a generation.

Another lesson to be learned is that the slowdown in human population growth is becoming more pronounced. In 2020, the annual growth rate of the world's population, which exceeded 2% during the 1960s, has fallen below 1% for the first time. The main explanation for this is that the fertility rate has also reached a low point. Along with the mortality rate, this is the main determinant of any demographic change – and it is now 2.3 children per woman in 2022, whereas it exceeded 5 children per woman in the 1950s and 1960s.

'Demographic bomb'

Indeed, the 1960s fuelled the catastrophist theories of a “population bomb” – to quote the title of the bestselling book by biologist Paul Ehrlich, leader of the Malthusianism school of thought in the United States, which came just ahead of the [1972] Meadows report [which predicted devastating overpopulation and resource depletion] for the Club of Rome [a collective of intellectuals and business leaders which discusses global issues]. Since then, the world population has more than doubled, without the "bomb" exploding.

However, these figures are averages which hide major geographical disparities, the result of differences in fertility rates between countries and major regions. While fertility rates in many developed countries have plummeted over the past several decades, they are declining only very slowly in other countries.

In fact, the population of sub-Saharan Africa continues to experience growth rates of around 2.5% per year, fueled by a fertility rate of 4.6 children per woman. This peaks in countries such as Niger – where it is close to 7 – and the Democratic Republic of Congo, at 6.1.

Half the world's population growth

After doubling over the past quarter century, the population of this part of the continent is set to almost double again by 2050, amounting to half of the world's population growth. In this respect, it is interesting to note that countries in the Arab world, such as Egypt and Algeria, where the decline in the fertility rate was inexplicably reversed around 2010, have returned to a downward slope in recent years.

While Asia's demographic weight is not likely to weaken significantly, the redistribution of the population will, in the coming decades, affect East Asia with its aging population. South Asia, meanwhile, will benefit thanks to its higher fertility rates and younger population.

The most symbolic change will be the imminent demographic catch-up of China, where the median age, which divides a population into two halves, will then be higher than 50. India, too, will be 25% more populated by 2050.

Beyond the uncertainty inherent in any forward-looking approach, this report outlines lasting key themes that must be integrated into public policy, be it sustainable development goals, the fight against climate change or the immigration policies of developed countries. Europe, in particular, must abandon its position of denial in this regard and understand that immigration is the only solution to depopulation and decline.