Civilian casualties

It's important to preface this by stating that there is no "normal" or "acceptable" level of civilian casualties in urban warfare under international humanitarian law (IHL). IHL, also known as the Law of Armed Conflict, aims to minimize civilian harm and requires parties to a conflict to distinguish between combatants and civilians, and to direct operations only against military targets. While it acknowledges that civilian casualties may occur, it sets out principles like proportionality and precaution to limit such "collateral damage."

However, various studies and reports provide data on the actual ratios observed in urban conflicts, which can be seen as "average" or "expected" based on historical trends:

Average and Expected Civilian to Combatant Ratios in Urban Warfare:

• Broad Estimates: Globally, the civilian casualty ratio often hovers around 50% of all fatalities in warfare.

• Urban Conflicts (General): According to the Cities and Armed Conflict Events (CACE) database (covering 1989-2017) for cities with a population > 100,000, 28.9% of deaths are civilians, 29.5% are combatants, and 41.6% are unknown. If unknowns are excluded, civilian casualties make up approximately 49.5% of all fatalities.

• Large Cities (Population > 750,000): When data is limited to very large cities, the civilian death proportion increases. Excluding unknowns, civilians constitute 66.1% of all fatalities.

• Historical Context: William Eckhardt's research across centuries (18th, 19th, 20th) found the civilian casualty ratio to remain at about 50%. In World War II, civilians constituted 60-67% of casualties, and in the Vietnam War, estimates range from 46-67%.

• Specific Conflicts:

  • Bosnian War: Two studies found a civilian ratio of 40%.

  • Iraq War (2003-2013): Figures from Iraq Body Count indicate 77% civilian casualties out of all reported fatalities.

  • Gaza Conflicts: Analysis of recent Israel-Gaza conflicts shows varying combatant proportions, indicating significant civilian impact, with one study for the 2023 conflict estimating combatants at only 12.7% of deaths.

  • Drone Strikes: Some analyses suggest drone strikes can result in high civilian-to-combatant ratios, with some estimates as high as 10:1 (civilians to militants).

Misconceptions:

• The widely cited figure that "90% of war casualties are civilians" is often referred to as a myth. While civilian casualties are undeniably high, especially in urban environments, studies consistently show the percentage to be lower, typically in the range of 30-65% or around 50% globally.

The Concept of "Acceptable" Civilian Casualties:

From a legal and ethical standpoint, there is no "acceptable" level of civilian casualties. International Humanitarian Law (IHL) strictly prohibits targeting civilians and civilian objects. The principles of IHL, such as:

• Distinction: Parties to a conflict must always distinguish between civilians and combatants, and between civilian objects and military objectives. Attacks may only be directed against military objectives.

• Proportionality: Even when targeting a legitimate military objective, an attack is prohibited if the expected civilian casualties or damage to civilian objects would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated.

• Precaution: All feasible precautions must be taken to avoid, or at least minimize, incidental harm to civilians and civilian objects. This includes choosing methods and means of warfare that minimize civilian harm and providing effective warnings.

The reality of urban warfare, however, makes adherence to these principles incredibly challenging. When armed groups embed themselves within civilian populations, using civilian infrastructure for military purposes, or using civilians as human shields, the risk to civilians dramatically increases.

Organizations like the ICRC and the Center for Civilians in Conflict (CIVIC) advocate for stronger compliance with IHL and for militaries to adapt their doctrines, training, and planning to better protect civilians in urban environments. They emphasize avoiding the use of explosive weapons with wide-area effects in populated areas due to their indiscriminate nature.