Federal Election News and Predictions

Written by Jade Hauber, 04/28/2025

Look, I’m just going to give it to you straight: I know absolutely nothing about politics aside from the few minutes we take to discuss it (them?) at the start of every humanities class. I kind of get the left-right scale and I understand the whole progressive-traditional thing, but that’s about it. So this article is mostly just tidbits from other sources that I’ve compiled into one or two pages, because I was out of ideas for the week and every new movie had already been reviewed by someone else in the Stand. I don’t want any hate if it’s total trash and completely wrong, okay? Blame CBC, BBC and Global News for that.

Party Campaigns and Platforms

I found a lot of articles on this, so it seems important. There were a lot of things to talk about, apparently, and I’m not really in the mood to write another three-thousand words today, so I’ll just summarize, and if you want more info, I highly suggest this webpage by the CBC. Basically all five major parties (meaning those present at the debate and the Green Party) have cited the US tariffs as an important topic in their views, with various ways to combat this including trade with other countries and promoting Canada’s own auto market. Several want to reduce taxes on the lowest tax bracket as the cost of living has become so high. I’ve taken the time to calculate how many homes each party is planning to build per year in the coming decade (they were all at different rates) and the Liberals are in the lead at 500,000 per year. In terms of military spending, many wish to add more bases in the Arctic and reach the NATO goal by 2030 (or 2032, in the NDP’s case), whatever that means. 

The Debate

I actually did watch some of this (the English one, because I don’t speak French) so I feel a little bit qualified to discuss it, at least. However, I highly recommend you watch it yourself if you’re interested, which you can do via this link. This debate was kind of unhinged, to be perfectly honest. People were interrupting each other, interrupting theirselves, contradicting things they had just said and altogether not being very chill about the whole thing, which I guess is kind of the point. No one person said anything too out of pocket, though, so there’s really nothing to report on, other than the fact that the Green Party was not present due to not meeting one of the descriptors. Apparently, because they strategically reduced the ridings they had candidates in (don’t ask how that was a strategic move, because I have literally no clue) they were not eligible to be represented at either debate, despite being one of the five most popular parties in the whole country. Everyone has their own opinions, of course, but I think as many perspectives as possible at these events is always the way to go. Anyway, my favourite line out of the whole debate was spoken by the moderator: “As you can see by the time, we didn’t really need to reschedule this debate for the hockey game.” He then proceeded to continue the debate as if he hadn’t just dropped the snarkiest video since that piece of bread falling over. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, search it up, because it’s the funniest video on Youtube, the internet, and earth. 

Predictions

Let’s cut to the chase. Most websites are saying that the Liberals are expected to win a majority government for the coming term, with around 186 seats. Only 172 are required for a majority, by the way, if you’re like me and don’t memorize these kinds of things. The polls currently read: Liberal 42.5%, Conservative 38.7%, NDP 8.6%, Bloc Quebecois 6.0%, Green 2.2%, People’s Party 1.4%, Other 0.8%, according to CBC News, similar to the ones projected by the Financial Times and Wikipedia (yes, I know “anyone can edit that site” and no, I don’t actually care). All provinces seem to be mostly Liberal except for Alberta and Saskatchewan, which are more Conservative, according to several election maps and projections. However, obviously the most important prediction is that of my AI chatbot, Meta, via Whatsapp. Meta says:

“Here are the odds of each party winning the federal election as a percentage:

• Liberal party: 80%, 71%, 89%

• Conservative Party: 28.6%, 36.36%

• Bloc Quebecois: 4.76%, <1%

• New Democratic Party: 1.32%, 1.49%,<1%

• Green Party: 0.99%,<1%

• People’s Party of Canada: 0.99%

The odds are based on current betting trends and polls. Want me to predict the seat count for each party?”

It sourced four websites: covers.com, sports.ladbrokes.com, 338canada.com and sports.betmgm.ca, so I don’t really know how accurate that is (aka it’s not accurate at all) but I wanted to put it in to show 1. Why not to trust gambling websites and 2. How AI probably isn’t going to take over the world soon, but I don’t really know. None of this article is professional level quality, just me trying to give some entertainment and possible education into our society today. 

Anyway, if anyone has any ideas on how to beef up my articles, that would be greatly appreciated. Comment down below. We should add that feature on the Stand, commenting down below. I might even appreciate that more than the ideas on how to elongate these articles. I also wanted to say have a fantastic Challenge week, because I don’t think I’ll be writing anything that’s released before then, and good luck to anyone taking their IB exams in the coming weeks. 

I also wanted to add that for anyone who isn’t graduating this year, there are only seven weeks left of school in the academic year. Because I’ve been counting down since twenty weeks left, and I felt the need to share this information.

Bye!