Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Post date: May 24, 2016 2:19:27 PM

Tuesday, May 24, 2016 @ 0900 CDT: Yesterday's chase didn't pan out the way we had planned... Two of the cells that we targeted along the way looked quite promising, but they each ended up going the way of a fart in the wind. Oh well! It happens! We salvaged the day with some awesome lightning at (and after) sunset. Mother Nature put on a nice light show for us, and then we grabbed a late snack at a Childress truck stop and called it a night.

I have uploaded a few shots from our day yesterday, and you can see them HERE: https://kingkey.smugmug.com/TornadoChase/Chase-2016/2016May23/

As for today's chase, the SPC has designated it as an ENHANCED RISK day once again, but it looks like we will need to move a bit north. I won't know how far until we all gather in a little while. In the meantime, I have included the SPC's convective outlook for the day below.

Keep up with my latest updates on Twitter, which you can see by going to https://twitter.com/StickerThad.

SPC AC 241241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0741 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NW OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW KS/NE TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR NE CO INTO SW NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX NWD TO NEB...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK...FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND TX...

...SUMMARY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FOCUSED SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

...NW OK AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS OTHER MORE SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA LIKEWISE EJECT NEWD FROM NM TO KS. A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED IN SW KS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN THE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS KS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. S OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER E-NE...ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR I-70 IN KS HAS BEGUN TO PROPAGATE SEWD ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. SOME FORM OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS ERN/SERN KS...WRN MO...NERN OK...AND NWRN AR...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING WWD FROM THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD INTO SW KS AND PERHAPS NW OK BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE AS THE LOW-LEVELS RECOVER BEHIND THE SMALL MCS NOW WEAKENING OVER S CENTRAL OK. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS ON THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WARM SECTOR LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO INCREASES THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT ACROSS OK.

...NE CO TO SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE DEVELOPING DENVER CYCLONE...IN A BACKGROUND UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WWD FROM KS INTO NE CO...WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS IN A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. THE STORMS SHOULD FORM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD ENEWD TOWARD SW NEB THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS. THE STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER TONIGHT ACROSS NEB.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 05/24/2016