Sunday, May 22, 2016

Post date: May 22, 2016 2:06:26 PM

Sunday, May 22, 2016 @ 0900 CDT: Yesterday's chase was OFF-THE-CHARTS OUTRAGEOUS!!! We saw THREE TORNADOES... lots of extremely dangerous hail that was at least golf ball size... winds that were verging on hurricane force... muddy Kansas roads that tend to swallow vehicles whole... a Doppler On Wheels (DOW) truck that got stuck trying to turn around (and in the process, getting stuck in that same mucky Kansas mud AND trapping a whole lot of us from escaping a potentially dangerous situation with yet another tornado)... and... wow, what did I leave out? Gorgeous mammatus and a great sunset? I'm sure there was more, but the L-O-N-G day, late check-in at the hotel and the need to prepare for another potentially great chase day today has my head in the Kansas mud this morning!

With all that going on, though, you're going to have to forgive me, because there simply has not been enough time for me to process photos and video from yesterday's adventures. Too little sleep and not enough hours in the day! I will try to catch up on that later, but for the moment, I must prepare for today's chase instead. Priorities! Sorry...

And with that in mind, I have included today's description by the SPC below. Wish us all luck!

Keep up with my latest updates on Twitter, which you can see by going to https://twitter.com/StickerThad.

SPC AC 221254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0754 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS TO W TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK ACROSS THE PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND... BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD... WHILE AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATES FROM SRN NV/NW AZ/SW UT TO THE DAKOTAS BY TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS... PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER S... A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE MAINTAINED SWD ACROSS WRN NEB TO A LEE CYCLONE IN NE CO... AND THEN SWD NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE.

...CENTRAL NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS TO W TX THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE CO/KS AND TX/NM BORDERS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AT BEST... WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STORM FORMATION WILL RELY ON AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING AND THE RESULTANT DRYLINE CIRCULATION. A CONTINUED INFLUX OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS/ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NW TX/SW OK AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR EARLY STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW SURGES TO THE W AND S THAT COULD ALTER/LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WITH ANY DRYLINE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EARLY CONVECTION MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD... SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE WLY WITH SWD EXTENT FROM KS INTO TX... WHICH SUGGESTS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS IN W TX. THE TYPICAL EVENING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... WHICH WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES PRIOR TO STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

...DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS AREAS FROM KS SWD... BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE 55-60 F RANGE BY LATE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND...WITH 60-65 F DEWPOINTS FARTHER S IN SD AND NEB. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SLOW SURFACE HEATING FROM ERN ND INTO ERN SD... WHILE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN SD. SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX DISCUSSED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER... LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT WHERE LARGER BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED... WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND FLOW WILL LARGELY PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY.

THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CELLS/CLUSTERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT... WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE STORM EVOLUTION. RATHER QUICK UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS. THUS... DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS.

..THOMPSON/MARSH.. 05/22/2016

Sunday, May 22, 2016 @ 1415 CDT: I've been working yesterday's photos while we're heading south for today's chase. Feel free to check 'em out! https://kingkey.smugmug.com/TornadoChase/Chase-2016/2016May21/