May 19, 2013

Post date: May 19, 2013 2:25:58 PM

Sunday, May 19 @ 0915 CDT: Well, Tour 1 is now history, and I do believe it was a total success! It was slow getting started, but once it did, it was AMAZING!!! Many thanks to the Tour 1 chasers and safe travels to you. Here are a few photos from yesterday.

Now we're getting started with Tour 2, and it looks to be a great first day!

Here's yesterday's travel map. I will be compiling Tour 1 statistics and totals later, when time allows.

Sunday, May 19 @1115 CDT: Here's the outlook description for today's setup. *crossing fingers*

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0733 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...KS/MO/OK...

MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF TX/OK. THIS AIR MASS IS POISED TO RETURN RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO BY MID AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER THE REGION.

A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS CAP WILL INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20-23Z. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...BUT A FEW SUBTLE STORM-SCALE DETAILS WILL INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME. ONE PROBLEM MAY BE THE DEGREE OF HEATING REQUIRED TO BREAK THE CAP OVER OK AND THE RESULTING LCL HEIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES /MLCAPE OVER 4000 J/KG/ MAY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCES SO HAVE INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AFTER 00Z /0-3KM HELICITY VALUES RISING TO 300-500 M2/S2/ WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHWEST MO.

OTHERWISE...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0+ C/KM WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.