May 20, 2013

Post date: May 20, 2013 2:09:59 PM

Monday, May 20 @0900 CDT: We saw TWO TORNADOES yesterday... both near Viola, KS. One was a quick spin-up and then the second one that was short-lived, but very close to us. The rest of the day was spent chasing chasing chasing, but always being too late to catch the storms. All in all, though, a FANTASTIC Day 1 for Tour 2!!!

I am so sad to hear of the one fatality and other injuries and destruction that occurred, though, mostly in and around the Shawnee, OK area. Our thoughts are with them as they're under the gun once again today.

HERE are a few pictures from the day yesterday. I didn't get any video --- given the quick spin-up/spin-down times of the cells that we caught --- so these shots will have to do.

So once again, we have a Moderate Risk day today. Here's hoping that everything will happen out in the middle of nowhere, far away from people or property.

And here's yesterday's travel map as well:

Monday, May 20 @0915 CDT: Here's the text description of today's forecast for our area from the Storm Prediction Center:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0717 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHERN MO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO MUCH OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION....

...TX/OK/AR/KS/MO...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LTS-BVO. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGREE ON STORMS FORMING OVER CENTRAL OK BY ABOUT 20Z AND BUILDING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND WESTERN MO. THE INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLUAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM OVER SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TX APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF REMAINING DISCRETE AND POSING A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...STORMS THAT FORM FROM CENTRAL OK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND MO APPEAR LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO BROKEN LINES AND CLUSTERS BY EARLY EVENING CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM...VERY LARGE CAPE...AND FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.