May 10, 2014

Post date: May 10, 2014 2:13:19 PM

Saturday, May 10, 2014 @ 0900 CDT: Well, after a down day yesterday, it looks like there will be a chance of our seeing some storms in eastern Kansas / western Missouri today. It looks like there's a better chance of our getting into some hail than a tornado, but we shall see! We'll have to be a bit more cautious than usual, of course, given the iffy condition of the van's windshield and side window, but we'll do our best anyway!

Here's the SPC's outlook for today and tomorrow...

...and the SPC text that applies to our area:

...CNTRL PLNS INTO LWR MO/MID MS VLYS TODAY/TNGT...

ASCENT WITH NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NEB WILL GLANCE PARTS OF ERN KS AND MUCH OF MO TODAY. UPLIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. BUT COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN/LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT... SETUP MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD LATE AFTN TSTMS FROM SE KS INTO WRN/NRN MO... AND PERHAPS SRN IA AND NRN OK.

WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG... 40 KT WNW DEEP SHEAR... AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LVL FORCING... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LVL WINDS REMAIN BACKED NEAR WARM FRONT. A MORE SVR CONDITIONAL ALSO WILL EXIST ALONG DRY LINE THAT BY EARLY EVE SHOULD EXTEND SSW FROM NEAR WICHITA INTO SW OK. FALLING SFC PRESSURES W OF THE DRY LINE SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FEATURE WILL BE WEAK. NEVERTHELESS... CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO GIVEN INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

THE KS/MO STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP N AND NEWD OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND LLJ STRENGTHENS. THE ACTIVITY COULD POSE A RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND OVER PARTS OF NEB... IA... AND WRN IL EARLY SUN.

...and here's the link to a few pictures from yesterday, along with the travel map for John, Charles and me for our trip to Norman and back to Joplin:

Saturday, May 10, 2014 @ 1130 CDT: Another great breakfast at Bob Evans here in Joplin, and now we're headed out of town. It looks like we're going to head somewhere south and just west of Kansas City and then tweak our location from there.

Here's the SPC 1630Z update for today:

Saturday, May 10, 2014 @ 1245 CDT: The SPC has just updated their Day 2 forecast, and it's now been upgraded to a MODERATE RISK day. Here's the updated probabilistic map.