May 26, 2015

Post date: May 26, 2015 1:58:51 PM

Tuesday, May 26, 2015 @ 0850 CDT: After ridin' the wave in Texas yesterday (photos available HERE), today looks to be a "Texahoma Chase" kind of day. There's a 5% probability of tornadoes from western Oklahoma down into west-central Texas, so my guess is that we will head for that. Here's the SPC's description for that area:

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE DRYLINE AREA BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... WESTERN OK... AND WESTERN NORTH TX WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR RATHER EARLY TODAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG... BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CAPE VALUES. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN RISK IN THIS AREA... BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015 @ 1200 CDT: Leaving the Dallas area now, heading towards the Red River. Which side of the river will we play? We shall see...