Monday, May 23, 2016
Post date: May 23, 2016 2:06:28 PM
MONDAY, MAY 23, 2016 @ 0900 CDT: Yesterday was a busy day! There was a MAJOR chaser convergence (and we hooked up with George Kourounis --- on his birthday! --- and his gang of Weather Network folks, the Auto Club and lots of other chaser friends), with lots and lots of lightning and hail up to 3 inches (and likely larger). I saw two funnels, possibly a third, and one of them --- a needle funnel that a few of us saw --- ended up being verified that it had touched down, so I guess it counts! Woooohooooo!!! I get another steak! (...even though my developing "food baby" doesn't need it... *lol*) It was another late dinner (at a local Dairy Queen, of all places) and a late arrival at our hotel in Shamrock, TX, but it was worth it because we all had a great time!
I have uploaded a few shots from our day yesterday, and you can see them HERE: https://kingkey.smugmug.com/TornadoChase/Chase-2016/2016May22/
As for today's chase, the SPC has designated it as an ENHANCED RISK day down here in Texas once again. I have included the SPC's description below.
Keep up with my latest updates on Twitter, which you can see by going to https://twitter.com/StickerThad.
SPC AC 231233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM W/NW TX INTO SW OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OK TO SW TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NE TX TO KS... AND THEN NEWD TO PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA AND MN...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. VERY LARGE HAIL... A FEW TORNADOES... AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
...SW OK TO W/NW TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN MCS THAT EVOLVED FROM A SUPERCELL CLUSTER OVER THE SE TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING PERSISTS THIS MORNING AS A LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE JUST S OF THE RED RIVER... AND AN ACCOMPANYING MCV FARTHER N OVER OK. THE MCS IS MOVING INTO A LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR PERSISTENCE ACROSS NE TX ALONG THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY GRADIENT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE W OVER THE TRAILING COLD POOL WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL WAA WEAKENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH VEERING AND WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SWD MOTION OF THE COLD POOL HAS ALMOST CEASED ACROSS NW TX... AND MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT NWD BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MODIFY.
MEANWHILE... WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEAL EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE SPEED MAX OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO THAT WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE/NW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EWD TO NEAR THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON... AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE DRYLINE AND AT THE INTERSECTION WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES... WILL RESULT IN EXTREME BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SPEED MAX ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW TX UP TO THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK.
THE EXTREME BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION MAY AGAIN GROW INTO AN MCS TONIGHT AND SPREAD EWD NEAR THE RED RIVER... WITH A CONTINUED HAIL/WIND RISK OVERNIGHT.
...KS TO ERN NEB/WRN IA AND MN...
AN EXPANSIVE COLD POOL HAS BEEN PRODUCED BY THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS OK/N TX... AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORMING FARTHER N ACROSS ERN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL WAVE THAT MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY CONVECTION YESTERDAY. STRONG AIR MASS RECOVERY APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA GIVEN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION... PLUS THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE COLD POOL ACROSS OK. THUS... A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE IN THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 05/23/2016
Monday, May 23, 2016 @ 1130 CDT: The 1630z update is out, and here's what it shows for our area of interest. As a result, we're heading north, probably to the Oklahoma panhandle.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. ONE IS OVER NORTHERN AZ... AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CO/WRN KS BY THIS EVENING. A SECOND TROUGH IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN AZ/NM AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX AFTER SUNSET. BOTH FEATURES WILL LIKELY HELP TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE... BUT THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A LITTLE LATE TO MAXIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT AROUND MAX HEATING. THE RESULT IS THE RISK OF ISOLATED INTENSE SUPERCELLS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE LARGER AND MORE INTENSE CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP.
A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER SOUTHERN OK IS PROCEEDING EASTWARD... ALLOWING THE RAPID RETURN OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY... FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO... AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EVENTUAL BOWING STRUCTURES PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.