May 25, 2015

Post date: May 25, 2015 2:06:11 PM

Monday, May 25, 2015 @ 0900 CDT: We were all dismayed when we awoke yesterday morning and saw how the setup had changed overnight. Even so, we did our best to put ourselves into position for anything that might be available to chase in the Texas panhandle. Nothing happened. Mother Nature, you're just being a bitch!!! Anyway, there are still a few shots from the day, and you can see them HERE.

As for today, things look somewhat more promising, since the SPC set it as a moderate risk day. Even so, it looks like a difficult chase setup, as can be seen in the following:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0733 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK... NORTHEAST TX... AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK... WESTERN AR... NORTHWEST LA... AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES...

...SUMMARY...

WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL... AND A FEW TORNADOES...

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING... AND INTO NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED IN WEST TX... WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS. MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH... THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... AND AMPLE CAPE... HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK. VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST... AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

Monday, May 25, 2015 @ 1045 CDT: A mesocyclone discussion has now been issued for our area of interest. We're busting southeast, trying to get out ahead of the line of storms... and in the hope that we can determine which cells ahead of it could produce tornadoes... before the potential derecho blasts through!

Here's the SPC's discussion:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX. HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX. EARLY HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE INE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015